Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene : directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models

“Everything changes and nothing stands still” (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models — and ecological models in general — as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability. Highlights • We present a research agenda to enhance water quality modeling in the Anthropocene. • We review adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change. • We focus on eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. • These dynamics act at different integration levels and different time scales. • Lake Victoria is an iconic example of an evolving novel social-ecological system

River export of macro- and microplastics to seas by sources worldwide

Seas are polluted with macro- (>5 mm) and microplastics (<5 mm). However, few studies account for both types when modeling water quality, thus limiting our understanding of the origin (e.g., basins) and sources of plastics. In this work, we model riverine macro- and microplastic exports to seas to identify their main sources in over ten thousand basins. We estimate that rivers export approximately 0.5 million tons of plastics per year worldwide. Microplastics are dominant in almost 40% of the basins in Europe, North America and Oceania, because of sewage effluents. Approximately 80% of the global population live in river basins where macroplastics are dominant because of mismanaged solid waste. These basins include many African and Asian rivers. In 10% of the basins, macro- and microplastics in seas (as mass) are equally important because of high sewage effluents and mismanaged solid waste production. Our results could be useful to prioritize reduction policies for plastics