Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

Evolution of predator dispersal in relation to spatio-temporal prey dynamics : how not to get stuck in the wrong place!

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Comparison of deferral rates using a computerized versus written blood donor questionnaire: a randomized, cross-over study [ISRCTN84429599]

BACKGROUND: Self-administered computer-assisted blood donor screening strategies may elicit more accurate responses and improve the screening process. METHODS: Randomized crossover trial comparing responses to questions on a computerized hand-held tool (HealthQuiz, or HQ), to responses on the standard written instrument (Donor Health Assessment Questionnaire, or DHAQ). Randomly selected donors at 133 blood donation clinics in the area of Hamilton, Canada participated from 1995 to 1996. Donors were randomized to complete either the HQ or the DHAQ first, followed by the other instrument. In addition to responses of 'yes' and 'no' on both questionnaires, the HQ provided a response option of 'not sure'. The primary outcome was the number of additional donors deferred by the HQ. RESULTS: A total of 1239 donors participated. Seventy-one potential donors were deferred as a result of responses to the questionnaires; 56.3% (40/71) were deferred by the DHAQ, and an additional 43.7% (31/71) were deferred due to risks identified by the HQ but not by the DHAQ. Fourteen donors self-deferred; 11 indicated on the HQ that they should not donate blood on that day but did not use the confidential self-exclusion option on the DHAQ, and three used the self-exclusion option on the DHAQ but did not indicate that they should not donate blood on the HQ. The HQ identified a blood contact or risk factor for HIV/AIDS or sexually transmitted infection that was not identified by the DHAQ in 0.1% to 2.7% of donors. CONCLUSION: A self-administered computerized questionnaire may increase risk reporting by blood donors

Therapeutic and prophylactic effect of intermittent preventive anti-malarial treatment in infants (IPTi) from Ghana and Gabon

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) reduces the incidence of malaria episodes in young children. The exact mechanism by which the protective effect is mediated needs to be defined. This study aimed to investigate therapeutic, prophylactic, and possible exceeding effects of SP-based IPTi in two clinical trials.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Protective efficacies from two IPTi trials performed in Kumasi, Ghana, and Lambaréné, Gabon, were assessed for overlapping time series of 61 days. For six-months periods after each of three IPTi doses a multivariate Poisson regression model with the respective cohort as co-variate was generated and effect modification of protective efficacy with time strata was evaluated by log-likelihood tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Protective efficacies were not significantly different between the two study cohorts. Study-cohort corrected protective efficacy was highest for the first 61 days after each IPTi application and decreased continuously. For the first 61 days after IPTi-1, IPTi-2, and IPTi-3 the protective efficacy was 71%, 44%, and 43%, respectively. A reduction of the malaria incidence rate was detectable for the first 60, 30 and 40 days after IPTi-1, IPTi-2 and IPTi-3 drug application, respectively. After IPTi-3 a higher risk for malaria could be seen after day 60. This effect was mainly based on the overwhelming influence of the Kumasi cohort.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results suggest that SP-based IPTi mainly works through a therapeutic and prophylactic effect over 30 to 60 days after drug application and that a sustained effect beyond post-treatment prophylaxis might be very low.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Data analysis from clinical trials NCT ID # 00206739 (Kumasi Trial) and NCT ID # 00167843 (Lambaréné Trial), <url>http://www.clinicaltrials.gov</url>.</p

Brazilian Guidelines for Hereditary Angioedema Management - 2017 Update Part 1: Definition, Classification and Diagnosis

Hereditary angioedema is an autosomal dominant disease characterized by recurrent angioedema attacks with the involvement of multiple organs. The disease is unknown to many health professionals and is therefore underdiagnosed. Patients who are not adequately diagnosed and treated have an estimated mortality rate ranging from 25% to 40% due to asphyxiation by laryngeal angioedema. Intestinal angioedema is another important and incapacitating presentation that may be the main or only manifestation during an attack. In this article, a group of experts from the “Associação Brasileira de Alergia e Imunologia (ASBAI)” and the “Grupo de Estudos Brasileiro em Angioedema Hereditário (GEBRAEH)” has updated the Brazilian guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of hereditary angioedema

Selective blockade of interferon-α and -β reveals their non-redundant functions in a mouse model of West Nile virus infection

Although type I interferons (IFNs) were first described almost 60 years ago, the ability to monitor and modulate the functional activities of the individual IFN subtypes that comprise this family has been hindered by a lack of reagents. The major type I IFNs, IFN-β and the multiple subtypes of IFN-α, are expressed widely and induce their effects on cells by interacting with a shared heterodimeric receptor (IFNAR). In the mouse, the physiologic actions of IFN-α and IFN-β have been defined using polyclonal anti-type I IFN sera, by targeting IFNAR using monoclonal antibodies or knockout mice, or using Ifnb-/- mice. However, the corresponding analysis of IFN-α has been difficult because of its polygenic nature. Herein, we describe two monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that differentially neutralize murine IFN-β or multiple subtypes of murine IFN-α. Using these mAbs, we distinguish specific contributions of IFN-β versus IFN-α in restricting viral pathogenesis and identify IFN-α as the key mediator of the antiviral response in mice infected with West Nile virus. This study thus suggests the utility of these new reagents in dissecting the antiviral and immunomodulatory roles of IFN-β versus IFN-α in murine models of infection, immunity, and autoimmunity

Risk-taking in disorders of natural and drug rewards: neural correlates and effects of probability, valence, and magnitude.

Pathological behaviors toward drugs and food rewards have underlying commonalities. Risk-taking has a fourfold pattern varying as a function of probability and valence leading to the nonlinearity of probability weighting with overweighting of small probabilities and underweighting of large probabilities. Here we assess these influences on risk-taking in patients with pathological behaviors toward drug and food rewards and examine structural neural correlates of nonlinearity of probability weighting in healthy volunteers. In the anticipation of rewards, subjects with binge eating disorder show greater risk-taking, similar to substance-use disorders. Methamphetamine-dependent subjects had greater nonlinearity of probability weighting along with impaired subjective discrimination of probability and reward magnitude. Ex-smokers also had lower risk-taking to rewards compared with non-smokers. In the anticipation of losses, obesity without binge eating had a similar pattern to other substance-use disorders. Obese subjects with binge eating also have impaired discrimination of subjective value similar to that of the methamphetamine-dependent subjects. Nonlinearity of probability weighting was associated with lower gray matter volume in dorsolateral and ventromedial prefrontal cortex and orbitofrontal cortex in healthy volunteers. Our findings support a distinct subtype of binge eating disorder in obesity with similarities in risk-taking in the reward domain to substance use disorders. The results dovetail with the current approach of defining mechanistically based dimensional approaches rather than categorical approaches to psychiatric disorders. The relationship to risk probability and valence may underlie the propensity toward pathological behaviors toward different types of rewards.This is the final version. It was first published by NPG at http://www.nature.com/npp/journal/v40/n4/full/npp2014242a.htm