On 'Analytical models for the patchy spread of plant disease'.

Epidemiologists are interested in using models that incorporate the effects of clustering in the spatial pattern of disease on epidemic dynamics. Bolker (1999, Bull. Math. Biol. 61, 849-874) has developed an approach to study such models based on a moment closure assumption. We show that the assumption works above a threshold initial level of disease that depends on the spatial dispersal of the pathogen. We test an alternative assumption and show that it does not have this limitation. We examine the relation between lattice and continuous-medium implementations of the approach

Identifying which septic patients have increased mortality risk using severity scores:a cohort study

Background: Early aggressive therapy can reduce the mortality associated with severe sepsis but this relies on prompt recognition, which is hindered by variation among published severity criteria. Our aim was to test the performance of different severity scores in predicting mortality among a cohort of hospital inpatients with sepsis. Methods: We anonymously linked routine outcome data to a cohort of prospectively identified adult hospital inpatients with sepsis, and used logistic regression to identify associations between mortality and demographic variables, clinical factors including blood culture results, and six sets of severity criteria. We calculated performance characteristics, including area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), of each set of severity criteria in predicting mortality. Results: Overall mortality was 19.4% (124/640) at 30 days after sepsis onset. In adjusted analysis, older age (odds ratio 5.79 (95% CI 2.87-11.70) for ≥80y versus <60y), having been admitted as an emergency (OR 3.91 (1.31-11.70) versus electively), and longer inpatient stay prior to sepsis onset (OR 2.90 (1.41-5.94) for >21d versus <4d), were associated with increased 30 day mortality. Being in a surgical or orthopaedic, versus medical, ward was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.47 (0.27-0.81) and 0.26 (0.11-0.63), respectively). Blood culture results (positive vs. negative) were not significantly association with mortality. All severity scores predicted mortality but performance varied. The CURB65 community-acquired pneumonia severity score had the best performance characteristics (sensitivity 81%, specificity 52%, positive predictive value 29%, negative predictive value 92%, for 30 day mortality), including having the largest AUROC curve (0.72, 95% CI 0.67-0.77). Conclusions: The CURB65 pneumonia severity score outperformed five other severity scores in predicting risk of death among a cohort of hospital inpatients with sepsis. The utility of the CURB65 score for risk-stratifying patients with sepsis in clinical practice will depend on replicating these findings in a validation cohort including patients with sepsis on admission to hospital

Using economic evidence to set healthcare priorities in low-income and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review of methodological frameworks

Policy makers in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) are increasingly looking to develop 'evidence-based' frameworks for identifying priority health interventions. This paper synthesises and appraises the literature on methodological frameworks - which incorporate economic evaluation evidence - for the purpose of setting healthcare priorities in LMICs. A systematic search of Embase, MEDLINE, Econlit and PubMed identified 3968 articles with a further 21 articles identified through manual searching. A total of 36 papers were eligible for inclusion. These covered a wide range of health interventions with only two studies including health systems strengthening interventions related to financing, governance and human resources. A little under half of the studies (39%) included multiple criteria for priority setting, most commonly equity, feasibility and disease severity. Most studies (91%) specified a measure of 'efficiency' defined as cost per disability-adjusted life year averted. Ranking of health interventions using multi-criteria decision analysis and generalised cost-effectiveness were the most common frameworks for identifying priority health interventions. Approximately a third of studies discussed the affordability of priority interventions. Only one study identified priority areas for the release or redeployment of resources. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for local capacity to conduct evaluations (including economic analysis) and empowerment of local decision-makers to act on this evidence

Revisiting James March (1991): Whither Exploration and Exploitation

We revisit March’s seminal 1991 article, “Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning”, and analyze the impact it has had on scholarly thinking, providing a comprehensive and structured review of the extensive and diverse research inspired by this publication. We show that although this influence has changed significantly over the years, there are still unexplored opportunities left by this seminal work. Our approach enables us to identify promising directions for future research that reinforce the themes anchored in March’s article. In particular, we call for reconnecting current research to the behavioral roots of this article and uncovering the microfoundations of exploration and exploitation. Our analysis further identifies opportunities for integrating this framework with resource-based theories and considering how exploration and exploitation can be sourced and integrated within and across organizational boundaries. Finally, our analysis reveals prospects for extending the notions of exploration and exploitation to new domains, but we caution that such domains should be clearly delineated. We conclude with a call for further research on the antecedents of exploration and exploitation and for studying their underexplored dimensions

Under pressure: Response urgency modulates striatal and insula activity during decision-making under risk

When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles), a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Using functional MRI, we observed that this interaction was associated with changes in the activity of the striatum, a critical region for both reward and choice selection, and within the insula, a region implicated as the substrate of affective feelings arising from interoceptive signals which influence motivational behavior. Our findings bridge current psychophysiological and neurobiological models of value representation and action-programming, identifying the striatum and insular cortex as the key substrates of decision-making under risk and urgency

Pancytopenia due to proguanil toxicity in a returning traveller with fever

A patient known to have renal insufficiency was admitted to the hospital with fever and pancytopenia after returning from a trip to Mali. Pancytopenia was not caused by a tropical infection but was a side effect of atovaquone/proguanil used as malaria chemoprophylaxis. High and prolonged detectable proguanil serum levels can result in bone marrow suppression in patients with renal insufficiency. This should be taken into account in a returning traveller with fever and pancytopenia

Effect of shared care on blood pressure in patients with chronic kidney disease: A cluster randomised controlled trial

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is highly prevalent in patients with diabetes or hypertension in primary care. A shared care model could improve quality of care in these patients Aim: To assess the effect of a shared care model in managing patie

A cost effectiveness and capacity analysis for the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in Kenya : comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines

Background Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination. Methods Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain. Results The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US$1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$142 per DALY (US$5 for the full course of two doses) and RotaTeq US$288 per DALY ($10.5 for the full course of three doses). RotaTeq will have a bigger impact on the cold chain compared to Rotarix. Conclusion Vaccination against rotavirus disease is cost-effective for Kenya irrespective of the vaccine. Of the two vaccines Rotarix was the preferred choice due to a better cost-effectiveness ratio, the presence of a vaccine vial monitor, the requirement of fewer doses and less storage space, and proven thermo-stability

Tumors Widely Express Hundreds of Embryonic Germline Genes.

We have recently described a class of 756 genes that are widely expressed in cancers, but are normally restricted to adult germ cells, referred to as germ cell cancer genes (GC genes). We hypothesized that carcinogenesis involves the reactivation of biomolecular processes and regulatory mechanisms that, under normal circumstances, are restricted to germline development. This would imply that cancer cells share gene expression profiles with primordial germ cells (PGCs). We therefore compared the transcriptomes of human PGCs (hPGCs) and PGC-like cells (PGCLCs) with 17,382 samples from 54 healthy somatic tissues (GTEx) and 11,003 samples from 33 tumor types (TCGA), and identified 672 GC genes, expanding the known GC gene pool by 387 genes (51%). We found that GC genes are expressed in clusters that are often expressed in multiple tumor types. Moreover, the amount of GC gene expression correlates with poor survival in patients with lung adenocarcinoma. As GC genes specific to the embryonic germline are not expressed in any adult tissue, targeting these in cancer treatment may result in fewer side effects than targeting conventional cancer/testis (CT) or GC genes and may preserve fertility. We anticipate that our extended GC dataset enables improved understanding of tumor development and may provide multiple novel targets for cancer treatment development

On Unbounded Composition Operators in L2L^2-Spaces

Fundamental properties of unbounded composition operators in $L^2$-spaces are studied. Characterizations of normal and quasinormal composition operators are provided. Formally normal composition operators are shown to be normal. Composition operators generating Stieltjes moment sequences are completely characterized. The unbounded counterparts of the celebrated Lambert's characterizations of subnormality of bounded composition operators are shown to be false. Various illustrative examples are supplied