Predictors of mortality of patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admitted to an intensive care unit: A one year study

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) commonly require hospitalization and admission to intensive care unit (ICU). It is useful to identify patients at the time of admission who are likely to have poor outcome. This study was carried out to define the predictors of mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD and to device a scoring system using the baseline physiological variables for prognosticating these patients. METHODS: Eighty-two patients with acute respiratory failure secondary to COPD admitted to medical ICU over a one-year period were included. Clinical and demographic profile at the time of admission to ICU including APACHE II score and Glasgow coma scale were recorded at the time of admission to ICU. In addition, acid base disorders, renal functions, liver functions and serum albumin, were recorded at the time of presentation. Primary outcome measure was hospital mortality. RESULTS: Invasive ventilation was required in 69 patients (84.1%). Fifty-two patients survived to hospital discharge (63.4%). APACHE II score at the time of admission to ICU {odds ratio (95 % CI): 1.32 (1.138–1.532); p < 0.001} and serum albumin (done within 24 hours of admission) {odds ratio (95 % CI): 0.114 (0.03-0.432); p = 0.001}. An equation, constructed using the adjusted odds ratio for the two parameters, had an area under the ROC curve of 91.3%. For the choice of cut-off, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value for predicting outcome was 90%, 86.5%, 79.4% and 93.7%. CONCLUSION: APACHE II score at admission and SA levels with in 24 hrs after admission are independent predictors of mortality for patients with COPD admitted to ICU. The equation derived from these two parameters is useful for predicting outcome of these patients

Low oxygen saturation and mortality in an adult cohort; the Tromsø Study

Published version, also available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12890-015-0003-5Background: Oxygen saturation has been shown in risk score models to predict mortality in emergency medicine. The aim of this study was to determine whether low oxygen saturation measured by a single-point measurement by pulse oximetry (SpO2) is associated with increased mortality in the general adult population. Methods: Pulse oximetry was performed in 5,152 participants in a cross-sectional survey in Tromsø, Norway, in 2001–2002 (“Tromsø 5”). Ten-year follow-up data for all-cause mortality and cause of death were obtained from the National Population and the Cause of Death Registries, respectively. Cause of death was grouped into four categories: cardiovascular disease, cancer except lung cancer, pulmonary disease, and others. SpO2 categories were assessed as predictors for all-cause mortality and death using Cox proportional-hazards regression models after correcting for age, sex, smoking history, body mass index (BMI), C-reactive protein level, self-reported diseases, respiratory symptoms, and spirometry results. Results: The mean age was 65.8 years, and 56% were women. During the follow-up, 1,046 (20.3%) participants died. The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality were 1.99 (1.33–2.96) for SpO2 ≤ 92% and 1.36 (1.15–1.60) for SpO2 93–95%, compared with SpO2 ≥ 96%. In the multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models that included self-reported diseases, respiratory symptoms, smoking history, BMI, and CRP levels as the explanatory variables, SpO2 remained a significant predictor of all-cause mortality. However, after including forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted (FEV1% predicted), this association was no longer significant. Mortality caused by pulmonary diseases was significantly associated with SpO2 even when FEV1% predicted was included in the model. Conclusions: Low oxygen saturation was independently associated with increased all-cause mortality and mortality caused by pulmonary diseases. When FEV1% predicted was included in the analysis, the strength of the association weakened but was still statistically significant for mortality caused by pulmonary diseases

Multidimensional prognostic indices for use in COPD patient care. A systematic review

Contains fulltext : 98117.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: A growing number of prognostic indices for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is developed for clinical use. Our aim is to identify, summarize and compare all published prognostic COPD indices, and to discuss their performance, usefulness and implementation in daily practice. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search in both Pubmed and Embase up to September 2010. Selection criteria included primary publications of indices developed for stable COPD patients, that predict future outcome by a multidimensional scoring system, developed for and validated with COPD patients only. Two reviewers independently assessed the index quality using a structured screening form for systematically scoring prognostic studies. RESULTS: Of 7,028 articles screened, 13 studies comprising 15 indices were included. Only 1 index had been explored for its application in daily practice. We observed 21 different predictors and 7 prognostic outcomes, the latter reflecting mortality, hospitalization and exacerbation. Consistent strong predictors were FEV1 percentage predicted, age and dyspnoea. The quality of the studies underlying the indices varied between fairly poor and good. Statistical methods to assess the predictive abilities of the indices were heterogenic. They generally revealed moderate to good discrimination, when measured. Limitations: We focused on prognostic indices for stable disease only and, inevitably, quality judgment was prone to subjectivity. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 15 prognostic COPD indices. Although the prognostic performance of some of the indices has been validated, they all lack sufficient evidence for implementation. Whether or not the use of prognostic indices improves COPD disease management or patients' health is currently unknown; impact studies are required to establish this

The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men

Recent analyses based on UK data indicate that people who stop smoking, even well into middle age, avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer. We investigated whether similar absolute risks of lung cancer in men are found in other European countries with different smoking patterns and at different stages of their lung cancer epidemic. Using data for men from a multicentre case-control study of lung cancer in the UK, Germany, Italy and Sweden, and including 6523 lung cancer cases and 9468 controls, we combined odds ratio estimates with estimates of national lung cancer incidence rates to calculate the cumulative risk of lung cancer among men by age 75. Lung cancer cumulative risks by age 75 among continuing smokers were similar for the UK, Germany and Italy at 15.7, 14.3 and 13.8% respectively, whereas the cumulative risk among Swedish male smokers was 6.6%. The proportion of the risk of lung cancer avoided by quitting smoking before the age of 40 was comparable between the four countries, at 80% in Italy and 91% in the UK, Germany and Sweden. Similarly, the proportion of the excess risk avoided by quitting before the age of 50 ranged from 57% in Italy to 69% in Germany. Our results support the important conclusion that for long-term smokers, giving up smoking in middle age avoids most of the subsequent risk of lung cancer, and that lung cancer mortality in European men over the next three decades will be determined by the extent to which current smokers can successfully quit smoking

A Community Study of Factors Related to Poorly Controlled Asthma among Brazilian Urban Children

BACKGROUND: Asthma constitutes a serious public health problem in many regions of the world, including the city of Salvador, State of Bahia-Brazil. The purpose of this study was to analyse the factors associated with poor asthma control. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Two definitions were used for asthma: 1) wheezing in the last 12 months; 2) wheezing in the last 12 months plus other asthma symptoms or asthma diagnosis ever. The definition of poorly controlled asthma was: at least one reported hospitalisation due to asthma and/or high frequency of symptoms, in the last year. Children with poorly controlled asthma (N = 187/374) were compared with wheezing children with controlled asthma regarding age, gender, atopy, parental asthma, rhinitis, eczema, exposure to second hand tobacco smoke, presence of moulds, pets and pests in the house, helminth infections and body mass index. Crude and logistic regression adjusted odds ratios were used as measures of association. There was a higher proportion of poorly controlled asthma among children with eczema (OR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.02; 2.37). The strength of the association was greater among children with eczema and rhinitis (42.6%, 53.4% and 57.7%, respectively, in children who had no rhinitis nor eczema, had only one of those, and had both (p = 0.02 for trend test). The presence of mould in the houses was inversely associated with poorly controlled asthma (OR = 0.54; 95% CI 0.34; 0.87). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate an association between eczema and poor asthma control in this environment, but emphasize the role of various other individual and environmental factors as determinants of poor control

Risk factors for hospitalization among adults with asthma: the influence of sociodemographic factors and asthma severity

BACKGROUND: The morbidity and mortality from asthma have markedly increased since the late 1970s. The hospitalization rate, an important marker of asthma severity, remains substantial. METHODS: In adults with health care access, we prospectively studied 242 with asthma, aged 18–50 years, recruited from a random sample of allergy and pulmonary physician practices in Northern California to identify risk factors for subsequent hospitalization. RESULTS: Thirty-nine subjects (16%) reported hospitalization for asthma during the 18-month follow-up period. On controlling for asthma severity in multiple logistic regression analysis, non-white race (odds ratio [OR], 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–8.8) and lower income (OR, 1.1 per $10,000 decrement; 95$10,000 decrement; 95% CI, 1.02–1.4). CONCLUSION: In adult asthmatics with access to health care, non-white race, low income, and greater asthma severity were associated with a higher risk of hospitalization. Targeted interventions applied to high-risk asthma patients may reduce asthma morbidity and mortality

Extent of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and its dose-response relation to respiratory health among adults

BACKGROUND: There is a dearth of standardized studies examining exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and its relationship to respiratory health among adults in developing countries. METHODS: In 2004, the Syrian Center for Tobacco Studies (SCTS) conducted a population-based survey using stratified cluster sampling to look at issues related to environmental health of adults aged 18–65 years in Aleppo (2,500,000 inhabitants). Exposure to ETS was assessed from multiple self-reported indices combined into a composite score (maximum 22), while outcomes included both self-report (symptoms/diagnosis of asthma, bronchitis, and hay fever), and objective indices (spirometric assessment of FEV(1 )and FVC). Logistic and linear regression analyses were conducted to study the relation between ETS score and studied outcomes, whereby categorical (tertiles) and continuous scores were used respectively, to evaluate the association between ETS exposure and respiratory health, and explore the dose-response relationship of the association. RESULTS: Of 2038 participants, 1118 were current non-smokers with breath CO levels ≤ 10 ppm (27.1% men, mean age 34.7 years) and were included in the current analysis. The vast majority of study participants were exposed to ETS, whereby only 3.6% had ETS score levels ≤ 2. In general, there was a significant dose-response pattern in the relationship of ETS score with symptoms of asthma, hay fever, and bronchitis, but not with diagnoses of these outcomes. The magnitude of the effect was in the range of twofold increases in the frequency of symptoms reported in the high exposure group compared to the low exposure group. Severity of specific respiratory problems, as indicated by frequency of symptoms and health care utilization for respiratory problems, was not associated with ETS exposure. Exposure to ETS was associated with impaired lung function, indicative of airflow limitation, among women only. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for the alarming extent of exposure to ETS among adult non-smokers in Syria, and its dose-response relationship with respiratory symptoms of infectious and non-infectious nature. It calls for concerted efforts to increase awareness of this public health problem and to enforce regulations aimed at protecting non-smokers

Management and prevention of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations: a state of the art review

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are important events in the natural history of this prevalent and devastating condition. This review provides a concise, state of the art summary on prevention and management of exacerbations. Considerable new data underpins evidence in support of many preventative interventions, pharmacological and non-pharmacological, that are now available. Challenges remain in developing new approaches, and delivering those that already exist to the right patient at the right time. Management of an exacerbation remains stepwise according to clinical severity, but there is now additional focus on addressing comorbidities and taking the opportunity at acute events to optimise preventative strategies for the future. Ultimately, exacerbations are heterogeneous events in a heterogeneous disease, and an individualised approach is paramount