Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services1-3. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological4-7 and socio-economic system feedbacks8. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies1-3, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.Personal research fellowship of Mark Schuerch (Project Number 272052902) and by the Cambridge Coastal Research Unit (Visiting Scholar Programme). Furthermore, this work has partly been supported by the EU research project RISES-AM- (FP7-ENV-693396)

Determining the date of diagnosis – is it a simple matter? The impact of different approaches to dating diagnosis on estimates of delayed care for ovarian cancer in UK primary care

Background Studies of cancer incidence and early management will increasingly draw on routine electronic patient records. However, data may be incomplete or inaccurate. We developed a generalisable strategy for investigating presenting symptoms and delays in diagnosis using ovarian cancer as an example. Methods The General Practice Research Database was used to investigate the time between first report of symptom and diagnosis of 344 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 01/06/2002 and 31/05/2008. Effects of possible inaccuracies in dating of diagnosis on the frequencies and timing of the most commonly reported symptoms were investigated using four increasingly inclusive definitions of first diagnosis/suspicion: 1. "Definite diagnosis" 2. "Ambiguous diagnosis" 3. "First treatment or complication suggesting pre-existing diagnosis", 4 "First relevant test or referral". Results The most commonly coded symptoms before a definite diagnosis of ovarian cancer, were abdominal pain (41%), urogenital problems(25%), abdominal distension (24%), constipation/change in bowel habits (23%) with 70% of cases reporting at least one of these. The median time between first reporting each of these symptoms and diagnosis was 13, 21, 9.5 and 8.5 weeks respectively. 19% had a code for definitions 2 or 3 prior to definite diagnosis and 73% a code for 4. However, the proportion with symptoms and the delays were similar for all four definitions except 4, where the median delay was 8, 8, 3, 10 and 0 weeks respectively. Conclusion Symptoms recorded in the General Practice Research Database are similar to those reported in the literature, although their frequency is lower than in studies based on self-report. Generalisable strategies for exploring the impact of recording practice on date of diagnosis in electronic patient records are recommended, and studies which date diagnoses in GP records need to present sensitivity analyses based on investigation, referral and diagnosis data. Free text information may be essential in obtaining accurate estimates of incidence, and for accurate dating of diagnoses

Early anthropogenic transformation of the Danube-Black Sea system

© The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 2 (2012): 582, doi:10.1038/srep00582.Over the last century humans have altered the export of fluvial materials leading to significant changes in morphology, chemistry, and biology of the coastal ocean. Here we present sedimentary, paleoenvironmental and paleogenetic evidence to show that the Black Sea, a nearly enclosed marine basin, was affected by land use long before the changes of the Industrial Era. Although watershed hydroclimate was spatially and temporally variable over the last ~3000 years, surface salinity dropped systematically in the Black Sea. Sediment loads delivered by Danube River, the main tributary of the Black Sea, significantly increased as land use intensified in the last two millennia, which led to a rapid expansion of its delta. Lastly, proliferation of diatoms and dinoflagellates over the last five to six centuries, when intensive deforestation occurred in Eastern Europe, points to an anthropogenic pulse of river-borne nutrients that radically transformed the food web structure in the Black Sea.This study was supported by grants OISE 0637108, EAR 0952146, OCE 0602423 and OCE 0825020 from the National Science Foundation and grants from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Evaluation of risk of falls and orthostatic hypotension in older, long-term topical beta-blocker users

Background: Falls are a serious problem in the elderly, and have recently been described as cardiovascular-mediated side effects of beta-blocker eye drops. Therefore, we investigated the possible association between the long-term use of beta-blockers, prostaglandins and their combinations in eye drops, and falls, dizziness and orthostatic hypotension in older patients. Methods: All participants were long-term users of eye drops containing beta-blockers, prostaglandins or their combinations. They underwent a structured falls interview and blood pressure measurement for testing of orthostatic hypotension. The odds ratio for presence of orthostatic hypotension or a positive falls history according to use of beta-blocker eye drops was calculated with a binary logistic regression analysis. The main outcome measures were a positive falls history and the presence of orthostatic hypotension. Results: In total, 148 of 286 subjects participated. After adjustment for age, gender, and use of fall-risk-increasing drugs other than beta-blocker eye drops, we found no significant difference in fall risk [odds ratio (OR): 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.268-1.327] between patients using ophthalmic beta-blockers or a combination of ophthalmic beta-blockers and prostaglandins, and patients using ophthalmic prostaglandins only. Although prevalence of orthostatic hypotension was higher in the beta-blocker group (OR: 1.67; 95% CI: 0.731-3.793) compared to the prostaglandin group, this was a non-significant difference. Conclusions: In our study, we did not find a significant association between long-term use of beta-blockers eye drops and falls, dizziness or orthostatic hypotension in older ophthalmic outpatients, compared to long-term use of prostaglandin eye drops

The life cycle impact for platinum group metals and lithium to 2070 via surplus cost potential

© 2017 The Author(s)Purpose: A surplus cost potential (SCP) indicator has been developed as a measure of resource scarcity in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) context. To date, quality SCP estimates for other minerals than fossils are either not yet available or suffer methodological and data limitations. This paper overcomes these limitations and demonstrate how SCP estimates for metals can be calculated without the utilisation of ore grade function and by collecting primary economic and geological data. Methods: Data were collected in line with the geographical distribution, mine type, deposit type and production volumes and total production costs in order to construct cost-cumulative availability curves for platinum group metals (PGMs) and lithium. These curves capture the total amount of known mineral resources that can be recovered profitably at various prices from different types of mineral deposits under current conditions (this is, current technology, prevailing labour and other input prices). They served as a basis for modelling the marginal cost increase, a necessary parameter for estimating the SCP indicator. Surplus costs were calculated for different scenario projections for future mineral production considering future market dynamics, recyclability rates, demand-side technological developments and economic growth and by applying declining social discount rate. Results and discussion: Surplus costs were calculated for three mineral production scenarios, ranging from (US$2014/kg) 6545–8354 for platinum, 3583–4573 for palladium, 8281–10,569 for rhodium, 513–655 for ruthenium, 3201–4086 for iridium and 1.70–5.80 for lithium. Compared with the current production costs, the results indicate that problematic price increases of lithium are unlikely if the latest technological trends in the automotive sector will continue up to 2070. Surplus costs for PGMs are approximately one-third of the current production costs in all scenarios; hence, a threat of their price increases by 2070 will largely depend on the discovery of new deposits and the ability of new technologies to push these costs down over time. This also applies to lithium if the increasing electrification of road transport will continue up to 2070. Conclusions: This study provides useful insight into the availability of PGMs and lithium up to 2070. It proves that if time and resources permit, reliable surplus cost estimates can be calculated, at least in the short-run, based on the construction of one’s own curves with the level of quality comparable to expert-driven consulting services. Modelling and incorporating unknown deposits and potential future mineral production costs into these curves is the subject of future work

FRAGMATIC: A randomised phase III clinical trial investigating the effect of fragmin® added to standard therapy in patients with lung cancer

Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) occurs when blood clots in the leg, pelvic or other deep vein (deep vein thrombosis) with or without transport of the thrombus into the pulmonary arterial circulation (pulmonary embolus). VTE is common in patients with cancer and is increased by surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy and disease progression. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) is routinely used to treat VTE and some evidence suggests that LMWH may also have an anticancer effect, by reduction in the incidence of metastases. The FRAGMATIC trial will assess the effect of adding dalteparin (FRAGMIN), a type of LMWH, to standard treatment for patients with lung cancer. Methods/Design The study design is a randomised multicentre phase III trial comparing standard treatment and standard treatment plus daily LMWH for 24 weeks in patients with lung cancer. Patients eligible for this study must have histopathological or cytological diagnosis of primary bronchial carcinoma (small cell or non-small cell) within 6 weeks of randomisation, be 18 or older, and must be willing and able to self-administer 5000 IU dalteparin by daily subcutaneous injection or have it administered to themselves or by a carer for 24 weeks. A total of 2200 patients will be recruited from all over the UK over a 3 year period and followed up for a minimum of 1 year after randomisation. Patients will be randomised to one of the two treatment groups in a 1:1 ratio, standard treatment or standard treatment plus dalteparin. The primary outcome measure of the trial is overall survival. The secondary outcome measures include venous thrombotic event (VTE) free survival, serious adverse events (SAEs), metastasis-free survival, toxicity, quality of life (QoL), levels of breathlessness, anxiety and depression, cost effectiveness and cost utility. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN8081276

Response and resilience of Spartina alterniflora to sudden dieback

We measured an array of biophysical and spectral variables to evaluate the response and recovery of Spartina alterniflora to a sudden dieback event in spring and summer 2004 within a low marsh in coastal Virginia, USA. S. alterniflora is a foundation species, whose loss decreases ecosystem services and potentiates ecosystem state change. Long-term records of the potential environmental drivers of dieback such as precipitation and tidal inundation did not evidence any particular anomalies, although Hurricane Isabel in fall 2003 may have been related to dieback. Transects were established across the interface between the dieback area and apparently healthy areas of marsh. Plant condition was classified based on ground cover within transects as dieback, intermediate and healthy. Numerous characteristics of S. alterniflora culms within each condition class were assessed including biomass, morphology and spectral attributes associated with photosynthetic pigments. Plants demonstrated evidence of stress in 2004 and 2005 beyond areas of obvious dieback and resilience at a multi-year scale. Resilience of the plants was evident in recovery of ground cover and biomass largely within 3 y, although a small remnant of dieback persisted for 8 y. Culms surviving within the dieback and areas of intermediate impact had modified morphological traits and spectral response that reflected stress. These morphometric and spectral differences among plant cover condition classes serve as guidelines for monitoring of dieback initiation, effects and subsequent recovery. Although a number of environmental and biotic parameters were assessed relative to causation, the reason for this particular dieback remains largely unknown, however

Exploring Tai Chi in rheumatoid arthritis: a quantitative and qualitative study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, inflammatory and systemic disease which affects the musculoskeletal system. Exercise programmes are reported to improve physical functioning in patients with RA. Tai Chi is a traditional Chinese martial art which combines slow and gentle movements with mental focus. The purpose of this study was to study in which way Tai Chi group exercise impacted on disease activity, physical function, health status and experience in RA patients, applying quantitative and qualitative methods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Fifteen patients with RA (13 females, age 33-70 years) were recruited from a rheumatology department into a single group study. The patients were instructed in Tai Chi exercise twice weekly for 12 weeks. Assessments at baseline, 12 weeks, and 12 weeks follow-up were performed with a wide range of measures, including disease activity, self-reported health status, physical performance tests (Walking in Figure of Eight, Timed-Stands Test, and Shoulder Movement Impairment Scale). Qualitative data were obtained from a focus group interview conducted after completed intervention with taping and verbatim transcription. Review of the transcripts identified themes important to patients practicing Tai Chi.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Within the group, Tai Chi practice lead to improved lower-limb muscle function at the end of intervention and at 12 weeks follow-up. Qualitative analyses showed that patients experienced improved physical condition, confidence in moving, balance and less pain during exercise and in daily life. Other experience included stress reduction, increased body awareness, confidence in moving and indicated that Tai Chi was a feasible exercise modality in RA.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Improved muscle function in lower limbs was also reflected when patient experiences with Tai Chi were studied in depth in this explorative study. The combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods shows that Tai Chi has beneficial effects on health not related to disease activity and standardised health status assessment, and may contribute to an understanding of how Tai Chi exerts its effects.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00522054</p

The complex genetic landscape of familial MDS and AML reveals pathogenic germline variants.

The inclusion of familial myeloid malignancies as a separate disease entity in the revised WHO classification has renewed efforts to improve the recognition and management of this group of at risk individuals. Here we report a cohort of 86 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) families with 49 harboring germline variants in 16 previously defined loci (57%). Whole exome sequencing in a further 37 uncharacterized families (43%) allowed us to rationalize 65 new candidate loci, including genes mutated in rare hematological syndromes (ADA, GP6, IL17RA, PRF1 and SEC23B), reported in prior MDS/AML or inherited bone marrow failure series (DNAH9, NAPRT1 and SH2B3) or variants at novel loci (DHX34) that appear specific to inherited forms of myeloid malignancies. Altogether, our series of MDS/AML families offer novel insights into the etiology of myeloid malignancies and provide a framework to prioritize variants for inclusion into routine diagnostics and patient management