Assessing fossil fuel CO₂ emissions in California using atmospheric observations and models

Analysis systems incorporating atmospheric observations could provide a powerful tool for validating fossil fuel CO2 (ffCO2) emissions reported for individual regions, provided that fossil fuel sources can be separated from other CO2 sources or sinks and atmospheric transport can be accurately accounted for. We quantified ffCO2 by measuring radiocarbon (14C) in CO2, an accurate fossil-carbon tracer, at nine observation sites in California for three months in 2014–15. There is strong agreement between the measurements and ffCO2 simulated using a high-resolution atmospheric model and a spatiotemporally-resolved fossil fuel flux estimate. Inverse estimates of total in-state ffCO2 emissions are consistent with the California Air Resources Board's reported ffCO2 emissions, providing tentative validation of California's reported ffCO2 emissions in 2014–15. Continuing this prototype analysis system could provide critical independent evaluation of reported ffCO2 emissions and emissions reductions in California, and the system could be expanded to other, more data-poor regions

Simulating estimation of California fossil fuel and biosphere carbon dioxide exchanges combining in situ tower and satellite column observations

We report simulation experiments estimating the uncertainties in California regional fossil fuel and biosphere CO2 exchanges that might be obtained by using an atmospheric inverse modeling system driven by the combination of ground‐based observations of radiocarbon and total CO2, together with column‐mean CO2 observations from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO‐2). The work includes an initial examination of statistical uncertainties in prior models for CO2 exchange, in radiocarbon‐based fossil fuel CO2 measurements, in OCO‐2 measurements, and in a regional atmospheric transport modeling system. Using these nominal assumptions for measurement and model uncertainties, we find that flask measurements of radiocarbon and total CO2 at 10 towers can be used to distinguish between different fossil fuel emission data products for major urban regions of California. We then show that the combination of flask and OCO‐2 observations yields posterior uncertainties in monthly‐mean fossil fuel emissions of ~5–10%, levels likely useful for policy relevant evaluation of bottom‐up fossil fuel emission estimates. Similarly, we find that inversions yield uncertainties in monthly biosphere CO2 exchange of ~6%–12%, depending on season, providing useful information on net carbon uptake in California's forests and agricultural lands. Finally, initial sensitivity analysis suggests that obtaining the above results requires control of systematic biases below approximately 0.5 ppm, placing requirements on accuracy of the atmospheric measurements, background subtraction, and atmospheric transport modeling

Omega-3 fatty acids in high-risk cardiovascular patients: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Multiple randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have examined the cardiovascular effects of omega-3 fatty acids and have provided unexplained conflicting results. A meta-analysis of these RCTs to estimate efficacy and safety and potential sources of heterogeneity may be helpful.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Cochrane library, MEDLINE, and EMBASE were systematically searched to identify all interventional trials of omega-3 fatty acids compared to placebo or usual diet in high-risk cardiovascular patients. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality and secondary outcomes were coronary restenosis following percutaneous coronary intervention and safety. Meta-analyses were carried out using Bayesian random-effects models, and heterogeneity was examined using meta-regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 29 RCTs (n = 35,144) met our inclusion criteria, with 25 reporting mortality and 14 reporting restenosis. Omega-3 fatty acids were not associated with a statistically significant decreased mortality (relative risk [RR] = 0.88, 95% Credible Interval [CrI] = 0.64, 1.03) or with restenosis prevention (RR = 0.89, 95% CrI = 0.72, 1.06), though the probability of some benefit remains high (0.93 and 0.90, respectively). However in meta-regressions, there was a >90% probability that larger studies and those with longer follow-up were associated with smaller benefits. No serious safety issues were identified.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although not reaching conventional statistical significance, the evidence to date suggests that omega-3 fatty acids may result in a modest reduction in mortality and restenosis. However, caution must be exercised in interpreting these benefits as results were attenuated in higher quality studies, suggesting that bias may be at least partially responsible. Additional high quality studies are required to clarify the role of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.</p

The interpretation of systematic reviews with meta-analyses: an objective or subjective process?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Discrepancies between the conclusions of different meta-analyses (quantitative syntheses of systematic reviews) are often ascribed to methodological differences. The objective of this study was to determine the discordance in interpretations when meta-analysts are presented with identical data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched the literature for all randomized clinical trials (RCT) and review articles on the efficacy of intravenous magnesium in the early post-myocardial infarction period. We organized the articles chronologically and grouped them in packages. The first package included the first RCT, and a summary of the review articles published prior to first RCT. The second package contained the second and third RCT, a meta-analysis based on the data, and a summary of all review articles published prior to the third RCT. Similar packages were created for the 5^thRCT, 10^thRCT, 20^thRCT and 23^rdRCT (all articles). We presented the packages one at a time to eight different reviewers and asked them to answer three clinical questions after each package based solely on the information provided. The clinical questions included whether 1) they believed magnesium is now proven beneficial, 2) they believed magnesium will eventually be proven to be beneficial, and 3) they would recommend its use at this time.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was considerable disagreement among the reviewers for each package, and for each question. The discrepancies increased when the heterogeneity of the data increased. In addition, some reviewers became more sceptical of the effectiveness of magnesium over time, and some reviewers became less sceptical.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The interpretation of the results of systematic reviews with meta-analyses includes a subjective component that can lead to discordant conclusions that are independent of the methodology used to obtain or analyse the data.</p

Pharmacogenetic Associations of MMP9 and MMP12 Variants with Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Hypertension

MMP-9 and -12 function in tissue remodeling and may play roles in cardiovascular disease (CVD). We assessed associations of four MMP polymorphisms and three antihypertensive drugs with cardiovascular outcomes.Hypertensives (n = 42,418) from a double-blind, randomized, clinical trial were randomized to chlorthalidone, amlodipine, lisinopril, or doxazosin treatment (mean follow up, 4.9 years). The primary outcome was coronary heart disease (CHD). Secondary outcomes included combined CHD, all CVD outcomes combined, stroke, heart failure (HF), and mortality. Genotype-treatment interactions were tested. = 0.015). for CHD and composite CVD. The data suggest that these genes may provide useful clinical information with respect to treatment decisions

Effects of early feeding on growth velocity and overweight/obesity in a cohort of HIV unexposed South African infants and children

BACKGROUND: South Africa has the highest prevalence of overweight/obesity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Assessing the effect of modifiable factors such as early infant feeding on growth velocity and overweight/obesity is therefore important. This paper aimed to assess the effect of infant feeding in the transitional period (12 weeks) on 12–24 week growth velocity amongst HIV unexposed children using WHO growth velocity standards and on the age and sex adjusted body mass index (BMI) Z-score distribution at 2 years. METHODS: Data were from 3 sites in South Africa participating in the PROMISE-EBF trial. We calculated growth velocity Z-scores using the WHO growth standards and assessed feeding practices using 24-hour and 7-day recall data. We used quantile regression to study the associations between 12 week infant feeding and 12–24 week weight velocity (WVZ) with BMI-for-age Z-score at 2 years. We included the internal sample quantiles (70th and 90th centiles) that approximated the reference cut-offs of +2 (corresponding to overweight) and +3 (corresponding to obesity) of the 2 year BMI-for-age Z-scores. RESULTS: At the 2-year visit, 641 children were analysed (median age 22 months, IQR: 17–26 months). Thirty percent were overweight while 8.7% were obese. Children not breastfed at 12 weeks had higher 12–24 week mean WVZ and were more overweight and obese at 2 years. In the quantile regression, children not breastfed at 12 weeks had a 0.37 (95% CI 0.07, 0.66) increment in BMI-for-age Z-score at the 50th sample quantile compared to breast-fed children. This difference in BMI-for-age Z-score increased to 0.46 (95% CI 0.18, 0.74) at the 70th quantile and 0.68 (95% CI 0.41, 0.94) at the 90th quantile . The 12–24 week WVZ had a uniform independent effect across the same quantiles. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that the first 6 months of life is a critical period in the development of childhood overweight and obesity. Interventions targeted at modifiable factors such as early infant feeding practices may reduce the risks of rapid weight gain and subsequent childhood overweight/obesity.Scopu