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Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)
Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors
Modeled winter sea ice variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a multi-century perspective
The role of salinity in the decadal variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 33 (2009): 777-793, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0523-2.An OGCM hindcast is used to investigate the linkages between North Atlantic Ocean
salinity and circulation changes during 1963–2003. The focus is on the eastern subpolar
region consisting of the Irminger Sea and the eastern North Atlantic where a careful
assessment shows that the simulated interannual to decadal salinity changes in the upper
1500 m reproduce well those derived from the available record of hydrographic
measurements. In the model, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning
circulation (MOC) is primarily driven by changes in deep water formation taking place in
the Irminger Sea and, to a lesser extent, the Labrador Sea. Both are strongly influenced by
the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The modeled interannual to decadal salinity changes
in the subpolar basins are mostly controlled by circulation-driven anomalies of freshwater
flux convergence, although surface salinity restoring to climatology and other boundary
fluxes each account for approximately 25% of the variance. The NAO plays an important
role: a positive NAO phase is associated with increased precipitation, reduced northward
salt transport by the wind-driven intergyre gyre, and increased southward flows of
freshwater across the Greenland-Scotland ridge. Since the NAO largely controlled deep
convection in the subpolar gyre, fresher waters are found near the sinking region during
convective events. This markedly differs from the active influence on the MOC that salinity
exerts at decadal and longer timescales in most coupled models. The intensification of the
MOC that follows a positive NAO phase by about 2 years does not lead to an increase in
the northward salt transport into the subpolar domain at low frequencies because it is
cancelled by the concomitant intensification of the subpolar gyre which shifts the subpolar
front eastward and reduces the northward salt transport by the North Atlantic Current
waters. This differs again from most coupled models, where the gyre intensification
precedes that of the MOC by several years.Support from NSF Grant
82677800 with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and (to CF) from the Institut
universitaire de France and European FP6 project DYNAMITE (contract 003903-GOCE)
and (to JD) from the NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development through a scientific
appointment administered by UCAR is gratefully acknowledged
Rho GTPases as therapeutic targets in Alzheimer’s disease
The progress we have made in understanding Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathogenesis has led to the identification of several novel pathways and potential therapeutic targets. Rho GTPases have been implicated as critical components in AD pathogenesis, but their various functions and interactions make understanding their complex signaling challenging to study. Recent advancements in both the field of AD and Rho GTPase drug development provide novel tools for the elucidation of Rho GTPases as a viable target for AD. Herein, we summarize the fluctuating activity of Rho GTPases in various stages of AD pathogenesis and in several in vitro and in vivo AD models. We also review the current pharmacological tools such as NSAIDs, RhoA/ROCK, Rac1, and Cdc42 inhibitors used to target Rho GTPases and their use in AD-related studies. Finally, we summarize the behavioral modifications following Rho GTPase modulation in several AD mouse models. As key regulators of several AD-related signals, Rho GTPases have been studied as targets in AD. However, a consensus has yet to be reached regarding the stage at which targeting Rho GTPases would be the most beneficial. The studies discussed herein emphasize the critical role of Rho GTPases and the benefits of their modulation in AD
Evolution of geophysical parameters over the Indian Ocean region during contrasting monsoon years of 2002 and 2003 using TRMM/TMI data
Sensitivity of climate response to variations in freshwater hosing location
In a recent intercomparison of the response of general circulation models (GCMs) to high-latitude freshwater forcing (Stouffer et al., J Climate 19(8):1365-1387, 2006), a number of the GCMs investigated showed a localised warming response in the high-latitude North Atlantic, as opposed to the cooling that the other models showed. We investigated the causes for this warming by testing the sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to variations in freshwater forcing location, and then analysing in detail the causes of the warming. By analysing results from experiments with HadCM3, we are able to show that the high-latitude warming is independent of the exact location of the additional freshwater in the North Atlantic or Arctic Ocean basin. Instead, the addition of freshwater changes the circulation in the sub-polar gyre, which leads to enhanced advection of warm, saline, sub-surface water into the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea despite the overall slowdown of the MOC. This sub-surface water is brought to the surface by convection, where it leads to a strong warming of the surface waters and the overlying atmosphere