Large-scale attribution of trend in UK flood flow data

The objective of this study is to undertake a preliminary investigation of trend in annual maximum series of peak flood data in the United Kingdom, as a precursor to developing a more complete procedure for non-stationary flood frequency estimation. A fifth of the trends in series that are at least 20 years long are significant at the 5% level (of in total 388 series). Most of the significant trends are positive, and are located in the north and west. The largest positive trends occur for short records in the most recent decades. Trends were also investigated for various subsets of the data, based on different catchment characteristics. There is an indication that the range of trend values observed for urban catchments is larger than the range observed for the rural subset, and that storage of water, whether in lakes and reservoirs or in permeable geology, has an ameliorating effect on trend magnitude

Detection and attribution of urbanization effect on flood extremes using nonstationary flood-frequency models

This study investigates whether long-term changes in observed series of high flows can be attributed to changes in land use via nonstationary flood-frequency analyses. A point process characterization of threshold exceedances is used, which allows for direct inclusion of covariates in the model; as well as a nonstationary model for block maxima series. In particular, changes in annual, winter, and summer block maxima and peaks over threshold extracted from gauged instantaneous flows records in two hydrologically similar catchments located in proximity to one another in northern England are investigated. The study catchment is characterized by large increases in urbanization levels in recent decades, while the paired control catchment has remained undeveloped during the study period (1970–2010). To avoid the potential confounding effect of natural variability, a covariate which summarizes key climatological properties is included in the flood-frequency model. A significant effect of the increasing urbanization levels on high flows is detected, in particular in the summer season. Point process models appear to be superior to block maxima models in their ability to detect the effect of the increase in urbanization levels on high flows

Fourier Analysis of Gapped Time Series: Improved Estimates of Solar and Stellar Oscillation Parameters

Quantitative helio- and asteroseismology require very precise measurements of the frequencies, amplitudes, and lifetimes of the global modes of stellar oscillation. It is common knowledge that the precision of these measurements depends on the total length (T), quality, and completeness of the observations. Except in a few simple cases, the effect of gaps in the data on measurement precision is poorly understood, in particular in Fourier space where the convolution of the observable with the observation window introduces correlations between different frequencies. Here we describe and implement a rather general method to retrieve maximum likelihood estimates of the oscillation parameters, taking into account the proper statistics of the observations. Our fitting method applies in complex Fourier space and exploits the phase information. We consider both solar-like stochastic oscillations and long-lived harmonic oscillations, plus random noise. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate the existence of cases for which our improved fitting method is less biased and has a greater precision than when the frequency correlations are ignored. This is especially true of low signal-to-noise solar-like oscillations. For example, we discuss a case where the precision on the mode frequency estimate is increased by a factor of five, for a duty cycle of 15%. In the case of long-lived sinusoidal oscillations, a proper treatment of the frequency correlations does not provide any significant improvement; nevertheless we confirm that the mode frequency can be measured from gapped data at a much better precision than the 1/T Rayleigh resolution.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physics Topical Issue "Helioseismology, Asteroseismology, and MHD Connections

Dynamics of Phase Transitions by Hysteresis Methods I

In studies of the QCD deconfining phase transition or crossover by means of heavy ion experiments, one ought to be concerned about non-equilibrium effects due to heating and cooling of the system. Motivated by this, we look at hysteresis methods to study the dynamics of phase transitions. Our systems are temperature driven through the phase transition using updating procedures in the Glauber universality class. Hysteresis calculations are presented for a number of observables, including the (internal) energy, properties of Fortuin-Kasteleyn clusters and structure functions. We test the methods for 2d Potts models, which provide a rich collection of phase transitions with a number of rigorously known properties. Comparing with equilibrium configurations we find a scenario where the dynamics of the transition leads to a spinodal decomposition which dominates the statistical properties of the configurations. One may expect an enhancement of low energy gluon production due to spinodal decomposition of the Polyakov loops, if such a scenario is realized by nature.Comment: 12 pages, revised after referee report, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Strange nucleon form factors in the perturbative chiral quark model

We apply the perturbative chiral quark model at one loop to calculate the strange form factors of the nucleon. A detailed numerical analysis of the strange magnetic moments and radii of the nucleon, and also the momentum dependence of the form factors is presented.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figure

Atomic X-ray Spectroscopy of Accreting Black Holes

Current astrophysical research suggests that the most persistently luminous objects in the Universe are powered by the flow of matter through accretion disks onto black holes. Accretion disk systems are observed to emit copious radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, each energy band providing access to rather distinct regimes of physical conditions and geometric scale. X-ray emission probes the innermost regions of the accretion disk, where relativistic effects prevail. While this has been known for decades, it also has been acknowledged that inferring physical conditions in the relativistic regime from the behavior of the X-ray continuum is problematic and not satisfactorily constraining. With the discovery in the 1990s of iron X-ray lines bearing signatures of relativistic distortion came the hope that such emission would more firmly constrain models of disk accretion near black holes, as well as provide observational criteria by which to test general relativity in the strong field limit. Here we provide an introduction to this phenomenon. While the presentation is intended to be primarily tutorial in nature, we aim also to acquaint the reader with trends in current research. To achieve these ends, we present the basic applications of general relativity that pertain to X-ray spectroscopic observations of black hole accretion disk systems, focusing on the Schwarzschild and Kerr solutions to the Einstein field equations. To this we add treatments of the fundamental concepts associated with the theoretical and modeling aspects of accretion disks, as well as relevant topics from observational and theoretical X-ray spectroscopy.Comment: 63 pages, 21 figures, Einstein Centennial Review Article, Canadian Journal of Physics, in pres

An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic tundra:Comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions

Although Arctic tundra has been estimated to cover only 8% of the global land surface, the large and potentially labile carbon pools currently stored in tundra soils have the potential for large emissions of carbon (C) under a warming climate. These emissions as radiatively active greenhouse gases in the form of both CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> could amplify global warming. Given the potential sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate change and the expectation that the Arctic will experience appreciable warming over the next century, it is important to assess whether responses of C exchange in tundra regions are likely to enhance or mitigate warming. In this study we compared analyses of C exchange of Arctic tundra between 1990 and 2006 among observations, regional and global applications of process-based terrestrial biosphere models, and atmospheric inversion models. Syntheses of flux observations and inversion models indicate that the annual exchange of CO<sub>2</sub> between Arctic tundra and the atmosphere has large uncertainties that cannot be distinguished from neutral balance. The mean estimate from an ensemble of process-based model simulations suggests that Arctic tundra has acted as a sink for atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> in recent decades, but based on the uncertainty estimates it cannot be determined with confidence whether these ecosystems represent a weak or a strong sink. Tundra was 0.6 °C warmer in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. The central estimates of the observations, process-based models, and inversion models each identify stronger sinks in the 2000s compared with the 1990s. Some of the process models indicate that this occurred because net primary production increased more in response to warming than heterotrophic respiration. Similarly, the observations and the applications of regional process-based models suggest that CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from Arctic tundra have increased from the 1990s to 2000s because of the sensitivity of CH<sub>4</sub> emissions to warmer temperatures. Based on our analyses of the estimates from observations, process-based models, and inversion models, we estimate that Arctic tundra was a sink for atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> of 110 Tg C yr<sup>−1</sup> (uncertainty between a sink of 291 Tg C yr<sup>−1</sup> and a source of 80 Tg C yr<sup>−1</sup>) and a source of CH<sub>4</sub> to the atmosphere of 19 Tg C yr<sup>−1</sup> (uncertainty between sources of 8 and 29 Tg C yr<sup>−1</sup>). The suite of analyses conducted in this study indicate that it is important to reduce uncertainties in the observations, process-based models, and inversions in order to better understand the degree to which Arctic tundra is influencing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations. The reduction of uncertainties can be accomplished through (1) the strategic placement of more CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> monitoring stations to reduce uncertainties in inversions, (2) improved observation networks of ground-based measurements of CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> exchange to understand exchange in response to disturbance and across gradients of climatic and hydrological variability, and (3) the effective transfer of information from enhanced observation networks into process-based models to improve the simulation of CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> exchange from Arctic tundra to the atmosphere

Properties of the random field Ising model in a transverse magnetic field

We consider the effect of a random longitudinal field on the Ising model in a transverse magnetic field. For spatial dimension $d > 2$, there is at low strength of randomness and transverse field, a phase with true long range order which is destroyed at higher values of the randomness or transverse field. The properties of the quantum phase transition at zero temperature are controlled by a fixed point with no quantum fluctuations. This fixed point also controls the classical finite temperature phase transition in this model. Many critical properties of the quantum transition are therefore identical to those of the classical transition. In particular, we argue that the dynamical scaling is activated, i.e, the logarithm of the diverging time scale rises as a power of the diverging length scale