Iraq War mortality estimates: A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In March 2003, the United States invaded Iraq. The subsequent number, rates, and causes of mortality in Iraq resulting from the war remain unclear, despite intense international attention. Understanding mortality estimates from modern warfare, where the majority of casualties are civilian, is of critical importance for public health and protection afforded under international humanitarian law. We aimed to review the studies, reports and counts on Iraqi deaths since the start of the war and assessed their methodological quality and results.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a systematic search of 15 electronic databases from inception to January 2008. In addition, we conducted a non-structured search of 3 other databases, reviewed study reference lists and contacted subject matter experts. We included studies that provided estimates of Iraqi deaths based on primary research over a reported period of time since the invasion. We excluded studies that summarized mortality estimates and combined non-fatal injuries and also studies of specific sub-populations, e.g. under-5 mortality. We calculated crude and cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence and average deaths per day for each study, where not already provided.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirteen studies met the eligibility criteria. The studies used a wide range of methodologies, varying from sentinel-data collection to population-based surveys. Studies assessed as the highest quality, those using population-based methods, yielded the highest estimates. Average deaths per day ranged from 48 to 759. The cause-specific mortality rates attributable to violence ranged from 0.64 to 10.25 per 1,000 per year.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our review indicates that, despite varying estimates, the mortality burden of the war and its sequelae on Iraq is large. The use of established epidemiological methods is rare. This review illustrates the pressing need to promote sound epidemiologic approaches to determining mortality estimates and to establish guidelines for policy-makers, the media and the public on how to interpret these estimates.</p

Conduction in ulnar nerve bundles that innervate the proximal and distal muscles: a clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study aims to investigate and compare the conduction parameters of nerve bundles in the ulnar nerve that innervates the forearm muscles and hand muscles; routine electromyography study merely evaluates the nerve segment of distal (hand) muscles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An electrophysiological evaluation, consisting of velocities, amplitudes, and durations of ulnar nerve bundles to 2 forearm muscles and the hypothenar muscles was performed on the same humeral segment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The velocities and durations of the compound muscle action potential (CMAP) of the ulnar nerve bundle to the proximal muscles were greater than to distal muscles, but the amplitudes were smaller.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Bundles in the ulnar nerve of proximal muscles have larger neuronal bodies and thicker nerve fibers than those in the same nerve in distal muscles, and their conduction velocities are higher. The CMAPs of proximal muscles also have smaller amplitudes and greater durations. These findings can be attributed to the desynchronization that is caused by a wider range of distribution in nerve fiber diameters.</p> <p>Conduction parameters of nerve fibers with different diameters in the same peripheral nerve can be estimated.</p

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians

Characteristics and risk factors for typhoid fever after the tsunami, earthquake and under normal conditions in Indonesia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although typhoid transmitted by food and water is a common problem in daily life, its characteristics and risk factors may differ in disaster-affected areas, which reinforces the need for rapid public health intervention. Surveys were carried out post-tsunami in Banda Aceh, post-earthquake in Yogyakarta, and under normal conditions in Bandung, Indonesia. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the risk factors with the dependent variable of typhoid fever, with or without complications.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Characteristic typhoid fever with complications was found in 5 patients (11.9%) affected by the tsunami in Aceh, 8 (20.5%) after the earthquake in Yogyakarta, and 13 (18.6%) in Bandung. After the tsunami in Aceh, clean water (OR = 0.05; 95%CI: 0.01-0.47) and drug availability (OR = 0.23; 95%CI: 0.02-2.43) are significant independent risk factors, while for the earthquake in Yogyakarta, contact with other typhoid patients (OR = 20.30; 95%CI: 1.93-213.02) and education (OR = 0.08; 95%CI: 0.01-0.98) were significant risk factors. Under normal conditions in Bandung, hand washing (OR = 0.07; 95%CI: 0.01-0.50) and education (OR = 0.08; 95%CI: 0.01-0.64) emerged as significant risk factors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The change in risk factors for typhoid complication after the tsunami in Aceh and the earthquake in Yogyakarta emphasizes the need for rapid public health intervention in natural disasters in Indonesia.</p

Interaction Between Convection and Pulsation

This article reviews our current understanding of modelling convection dynamics in stars. Several semi-analytical time-dependent convection models have been proposed for pulsating one-dimensional stellar structures with different formulations for how the convective turbulent velocity field couples with the global stellar oscillations. In this review we put emphasis on two, widely used, time-dependent convection formulations for estimating pulsation properties in one-dimensional stellar models. Applications to pulsating stars are presented with results for oscillation properties, such as the effects of convection dynamics on the oscillation frequencies, or the stability of pulsation modes, in classical pulsators and in stars supporting solar-type oscillations.Comment: Invited review article for Living Reviews in Solar Physics. 88 pages, 14 figure

Sleep disturbances in an arctic population: The Tromsø Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prevalence estimates for insomnia range from 10 to 50% in the adult general population. Sleep disturbances cause great impairment in quality of life, which might even rival or exceed the impairment in other chronic medical disorders. The economic implications and use of health-care services related to chronic insomnia represent a clinical concern as well as a pronounced public health problem. Hypnotics are frequently prescribed for insomnia, but alcohol and over-the-counter sleep aids seem to be more widely used by insomniacs than prescription medications. Despite the complex relationship between insomnia and physical and mental health factors, the condition appears to be underrecognized and undertreated by health care providers, probably due to the generally limited knowledge of the causes and natural development of insomnia.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The Tromsø Study is an ongoing population-based cohort study with five previous health studies undertaken between 1974 and 2001. This protocol outlines a planned study within the sixth Tromsø Study (Tromsø VI), aiming at; 1) describing sleep patterns in a community-based sample representative of the general population of northern Norway, and 2) examining outcome variables of sleep disturbances against possible explanatory and confounding variables, both within a cross-sectional approach, as well as retrospectively in a longitudinal study – exploring sleep patterns in subjects who have attended two or more of the previous Tromsø studies between 1974 and 2009. First, we plan to perform a simple screening in order to identify those participants with probable sleep disturbances, and secondly to investigate these sleep disturbances further, using an extensive sleep-questionnaire. We will also collect biological explanatory variables, i.e. blood samples, weight, height and blood pressure. We plan to merge data on an individual level from the Tromsø VI Study with data from the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD), which is a national registry including data for all prescription drugs issued at Norwegian pharmacies. Participants with sleep disturbances will be compared with pair-matched controls without sleep disturbances.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Despite ongoing research, many challenges remain in the characterization of sleep disturbances and its correlates. Future mapping of the biological dimensions, natural history, as well as the behavioral and drug-related aspects of sleep disturbances in a representative population samples is clearly needed.</p

Positive Psychology in Cancer Care: Bad Science, Exaggerated Claims, and Unproven Medicine

Claims of positive psychology about people with cancer enjoy great popularity because they seem to offer scientific confirmation of strongly held cultural beliefs and values. Our goal is to examine critically four widely accepted claims in the positive psychology literature regarding adaptational outcomes among individuals living with cancer. We examine: (1) the role of positive factors, such as a "fighting spirit" in extending the life of persons with cancer; (2) effects of interventions cultivating positive psychological states on immune functioning and cancer progression and mortality; and evidence concerning (3) benefit finding and (4) post-traumatic growth following serious illness such as cancer and other highly threatening experiences. Claims about these areas of research routinely made in the positive psychology literature do not fit with available evidence. We note in particular the incoherence of claims about the adaptational value of benefit finding and post-traumatic growth among cancer patients, and the implausibility of claims that interventions that enhance benefit finding improve the prognosis of cancer patients by strengthening the immune system. We urge positive psychologists to rededicate themselves to a positive psychology based on scientific evidence rather than wishful thinking

The quest for the solar g modes

Solar gravity modes (or g modes) -- oscillations of the solar interior for which buoyancy acts as the restoring force -- have the potential to provide unprecedented inference on the structure and dynamics of the solar core, inference that is not possible with the well observed acoustic modes (or p modes). The high amplitude of the g-mode eigenfunctions in the core and the evanesence of the modes in the convection zone make the modes particularly sensitive to the physical and dynamical conditions in the core. Owing to the existence of the convection zone, the g modes have very low amplitudes at photospheric levels, which makes the modes extremely hard to detect. In this paper, we review the current state of play regarding attempts to detect g modes. We review the theory of g modes, including theoretical estimation of the g-mode frequencies, amplitudes and damping rates. Then we go on to discuss the techniques that have been used to try to detect g modes. We review results in the literature, and finish by looking to the future, and the potential advances that can be made -- from both data and data-analysis perspectives -- to give unambiguous detections of individual g modes. The review ends by concluding that, at the time of writing, there is indeed a consensus amongst the authors that there is currently no undisputed detection of solar g modes.Comment: 71 pages, 18 figures, accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysics Revie

Violent Deaths of Iraqi Civilians, 2003–2008: Analysis by Perpetrator, Weapon, Time, and Location

Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks and colleagues provide a detailed analysis of Iraqi civilian violent deaths during 2003-2008 of the Iraq war and show that of 92,614 deaths, unknown perpetrators caused 74% of deaths, Coalition forces 12%, and Anti-Coalition forces 11%

Effect of a serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT) on serogroup A meningococcal meningitis and carriage in Chad: a community study [corrected].

BACKGROUND: A serogroup A meningococcal polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT, MenAfriVac) was licensed in India in 2009, and pre-qualified by WHO in 2010, on the basis of its safety and immunogenicity. This vaccine is now being deployed across the African meningitis belt. We studied the effect of PsA-TT on meningococcal meningitis and carriage in Chad during a serogroup A meningococcal meningitis epidemic. METHODS: We obtained data for the incidence of meningitis before and after vaccination from national records between January, 2009, and June, 2012. In 2012, surveillance was enhanced in regions where vaccination with PsA-TT had been undertaken in 2011, and in one district where a reactive vaccination campaign in response to an outbreak of meningitis was undertaken. Meningococcal carriage was studied in an age-stratified sample of residents aged 1-29 years of a rural area roughly 13-15 and 2-4 months before and 4-6 months after vaccination. Meningococci obtained from cerebrospinal fluid or oropharyngeal swabs were characterised by conventional microbiological and molecular methods. FINDINGS: Roughly 1·8 million individuals aged 1-29 years received one dose of PsA-TT during a vaccination campaign in three regions of Chad in and around the capital N'Djamena during 10 days in December, 2011. The incidence of meningitis during the 2012 meningitis season in these three regions was 2·48 per 100,000 (57 cases in the 2·3 million population), whereas in regions without mass vaccination, incidence was 43·8 per 100,000 (3809 cases per 8·7 million population), a 94% difference in crude incidence (p<0·0001), and an incidence rate ratio of 0·096 (95% CI 0·046-0·198). Despite enhanced surveillance, no case of serogroup A meningococcal meningitis was reported in the three vaccinated regions. 32 serogroup A carriers were identified in 4278 age-stratified individuals (0·75%) living in a rural area near the capital 2-4 months before vaccination, whereas only one serogroup A meningococcus was isolated in 5001 people living in the same community 4-6 months after vaccination (adjusted odds ratio 0·019, 95% CI 0·002-0·138; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: PSA-TT was highly effective at prevention of serogroup A invasive meningococcal disease and carriage in Chad. How long this protection will persist needs to be established. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and Médecins Sans Frontères