Using GIS to create synthetic disease outbreaks

BACKGROUND: The ability to detect disease outbreaks in their early stages is a key component of efficient disease control and prevention. With the increased availability of electronic health-care data and spatio-temporal analysis techniques, there is great potential to develop algorithms to enable more effective disease surveillance. However, to ensure that the algorithms are effective they need to be evaluated. The objective of this research was to develop a transparent user-friendly method to simulate spatial-temporal disease outbreak data for outbreak detection algorithm evaluation. A state-transition model which simulates disease outbreaks in daily time steps using specified disease-specific parameters was developed to model the spread of infectious diseases transmitted by person-to-person contact. The software was developed using the MapBasic programming language for the MapInfo Professional geographic information system environment. RESULTS: The simulation model developed is a generalised and flexible model which utilises the underlying distribution of the population and incorporates patterns of disease spread that can be customised to represent a range of infectious diseases and geographic locations. This model provides a means to explore the ability of outbreak detection algorithms to detect a variety of events across a large number of stochastic replications where the influence of uncertainty can be controlled. The software also allows historical data which is free from known outbreaks to be combined with simulated outbreak data to produce files for algorithm performance assessment. CONCLUSION: This simulation model provides a flexible method to generate data which may be useful for the evaluation and comparison of outbreak detection algorithm performance

Oral Anticoagulants in the Oldest Old with Recent Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the safety and effectiveness of direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) versus vitamin-K-antagonists (VKA) after recent stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) aged ≥85 years. METHODS: Individual patient data analysis from 7 prospective stroke cohorts. We compared DOAC versus VKA treatment among patients with AF and recent stroke (<3 months) aged ≥85 versus <85 years. Primary outcome was the composite of recurrent stroke, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) and all-cause death. We used simple, adjusted and weighted Cox regression to account for confounders. We calculated the net benefit of DOAC versus VKA by balancing stroke reduction against the weighted ICH risk. RESULTS: In total, 5,984 of 6,267 (95.5%) patients were eligible for analysis. Of those, 1,380 (23%) were aged ≥85 years and 3,688 (62%) received a DOAC. During 6,874 patient-years follow-up, the impact of anticoagulant type (DOAC versus VKA) on the hazard for the composite outcome did not differ between patients aged ≥85 (HR≥85y =0.65, 95%-CI [0.52, 0.81]) and <85 years (HR<85y =0.79, 95%-CI [0.66, 0.95]) in simple (pinteraction =0.129), adjusted (pinteraction =0.094) or weighted (pinteraction =0.512) models. Analyses on recurrent stroke, ICH and death separately were consistent with the primary analysis, as were sensitivity analyses using age dichotomized at 90 years and as a continuous variable. DOAC had a similar net clinical benefit in patients aged ≥85 (+1.73 to +2.66) and <85 years (+1.90 to +3.36 events/100 patient-years for ICH-weights 1.5 to 3.1). INTERPRETATION: The favorable profile of DOAC over VKA in patients with AF and recent stroke was maintained in the oldest old

Gestational diabetes mellitus and retinal microvasculature.

BACKGROUND: Small-vessel dysfunction may be an important consequence of chronic hyperglycemia. We examined the association between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), a state of transient hyperglycemia during pregnancy, and retinal microvascular changes in pregnant women at 26-28 weeks of pregnancy. METHODS: A total of 1136 pregnant women with singleton pregnancies were recruited during their first trimester at two major Singapore maternity hospitals in an on-going birth cohort study. Participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test and retinal imaging at 26-28 weeks gestation (n = 542). We used the 1999 World Health Organization (WHO) criteria to define GDM: ≥7.0 mmol/L for fasting glucose and/or ≥7.8 mmol/L for 2-h post-glucose. Retinal microvasculature was measured using computer software (Singapore I Vessel Analyzer, SIVA version 3.0, Singapore Eye Research Institute, Singapore) from the retinal photographs. RESULTS: In a multiple linear regression model adjusting for age, ethnicity and maternal education, mothers with GDM had narrower arteriolar caliber (-1.6 μm; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: -3.1 μm, -0.2 μm), reduced arteriolar fractal dimension (-0.01 Df; 95% CI: -0.02 Df, -0.001 Df;), and larger arteriolar branching angle (1.8°; 95% CI: 0.3°, 3.3°) than mothers without GDM. After further adjusting for traditional risks of GDM, arteriolar branching angle remained significantly larger in mothers with GDM than those without GDM (2.0°; 95% CI: 0.5°, 3.6°). CONCLUSIONS: GDM was associated with a series of retinal arteriolar abnormalities, including narrower caliber, reduced fractal dimension and larger branching angle, suggesting that transient hyperglycemia during pregnancy may cause small-vessel dysfunction

Who Is at Risk for Diagnostic Discrepancies? Comparison of Pre- and Postmortal Diagnoses in 1800 Patients of 3 Medical Decades in East and West Berlin

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Autopsy rates in Western countries consistently decline to an average of <5%, although clinical autopsies represent a reasonable tool for quality control in hospitals, medically and economically. Comparing pre- and postmortal diagnoses, diagnostic discrepancies as uncovered by clinical autopsies supply crucial information on how to improve clinical treatment. The study aimed at analyzing current diagnostic discrepancy rates, investigating their influencing factors and identifying risk profiles of patients that could be affected by a diagnostic discrepancy.</p> <h3>Methods and Findings</h3><p>Of all adult autopsy cases of the Charité Institute of Pathology from the years 1988, 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, the pre- and postmortal diagnoses and all demographic data were analyzed retrospectively. Based on power analysis, 1,800 cases were randomly selected to perform discrepancy classification (class I-VI) according to modified Goldman criteria. The rate of discrepancies in major diagnoses (class I) was 10.7% (95% CI: 7.7%–14.7%) in 2008 representing a reduction by 15.1%. Subgroup analysis revealed several influencing factors to significantly correlate with the discrepancy rate. Cardiovascular diseases had the highest frequency among class-I-discrepancies. Comparing the 1988-data of East- and West-Berlin, no significant differences were found in diagnostic discrepancies despite an autopsy rate differing by nearly 50%. A risk profile analysis visualized by intuitive heatmaps revealed a significantly high discrepancy rate in patients treated in low or intermediate care units at community hospitals. In this collective, patients with genitourinary/renal or infectious diseases were at particularly high risk.</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This is the current largest and most comprehensive study on diagnostic discrepancies worldwide. Our well-powered analysis revealed a significant rate of class-I-discrepancies indicating that autopsies are still of value. The identified risk profiles may aid both pathologists and clinicians to identify patients at increased risk for a discrepant diagnosis and possibly suboptimal treatment intra vitam.</p> </div

Effects of an evidence service on community-based AIDS service organizations' use of research evidence: A protocol for a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To support the use of research evidence by community-based organizations (CBOs) we have developed 'Synthesized HIV/AIDS Research Evidence' (SHARE), which is an evidence service for those working in the HIV sector. SHARE consists of several components: an online searchable database of HIV-relevant systematic reviews (retrievable based on a taxonomy of topics related to HIV/AIDS and open text search); periodic email updates; access to user-friendly summaries; and peer relevance assessments. Our objective is to evaluate whether this 'full serve' evidence service increases the use of research evidence by CBOs as compared to a 'self-serve' evidence service.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>We will conduct a two-arm randomized controlled trial (RCT), along with a follow-up qualitative process study to explore the findings in greater depth. All CBOs affiliated with Canadian AIDS Society (n = 120) will be invited to participate and will be randomized to receive either the 'full-serve' version of SHARE or the 'self-serve' version (a listing of relevant systematic reviews with links to records on PubMed and worksheets that help CBOs find and use research evidence) using a simple randomized design. All management and staff from each organization will be provided access to the version of SHARE that their organization is allocated to. The trial duration will be 10 months (two-month baseline period, six-month intervention period, and two month crossover period), the primary outcome measure will be the mean number of logins/month/organization (averaged across the number of users from each organization) between baseline and the end of the intervention period. The secondary outcome will be intention to use research evidence as measured by a survey administered to one key decision maker from each organization. For the qualitative study, one key organizational decision maker from 15 organizations in each trial arm (n = 30) will be purposively sampled. One-on-one semi-structured interviews will be conducted by telephone on their views about and their experiences with the evidence service they received, how helpful it was in their work, why it was helpful (or not helpful), what aspects were most and least helpful and why, and recommendations for next steps.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>To our knowledge, this will be the first RCT to evaluate the effects of an evidence service specifically designed to support CBOs in finding and using research evidence.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01257724">NCT01257724</a></p

Transcript levels of ten caste-related genes in adult diploid males of Melipona quadrifasciata (Hymenoptera, Apidae) - A comparison with haploid males, queens and workers

In Hymenoptera, homozygosity at the sex locus results in the production of diploid males. In social species, these pose a double burden by having low fitness and drawing resources normally spent for increasing the work force of a colony. Yet, diploid males are of academic interest as they can elucidate effects of ploidy (normal males are haploid, whereas the female castes, the queens and workers, are diploid) on morphology and life history. Herein we investigated expression levels of ten caste-related genes in the stingless bee Melipona quadrifasciata, comparing newly emerged and 5-day-old diploid males with haploid males, queens and workers. In diploid males, transcript levels for dunce and paramyosin were increased during the first five days of adult life, while those for diacylglycerol kinase and the transcriptional co-repressor groucho diminished. Two general trends were apparent, (i) gene expression patterns in diploid males were overall more similar to haploid ones and workers than to queens, and (ii) in queens and workers, more genes were up-regulated after emergence until day five, whereas in diploid and especially so in haploid males more genes were down-regulated. This difference between the sexes may be related to longevity, which is much longer in females than in males

Tea Consumption Enhances Endothelial-Dependent Vasodilation; a Meta-Analysis

Background: Tea consumption is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease including stroke. Direct effects of tea components on the vasculature, particularly the endothelium, may partly explain this association. Objective: We performed a meta-analysis of controlled human intervention studies on the effect of tea on flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery, a measurement of endothelial function, which is suggested to be associated with cardiovascular risk. Methods: Human intervention studies were identified by systematic search of the databases Medline, Embase, Chemical Abstracts and Biosis through March 2009 and by hand-searching related articles. Studies were selected based on predefined criteria: intervention with tea as the sole experimental variable, placebo-controlled design, and no missing data on FMD outcome or its variability. A random effects model was used to calculate the pooled overall effect on FMD due to the intake of tea. The impact of various subject and treatment characteristics was investigated in the presence of heterogeneity. Results: In total, 9 studies from different research groups were included with 15 relevant study arms. The overall absolute increase in FMD of tea vs. placebo was 2.6 % of the arterial diameter (95 % CI: 1.8-3.3%; P-value,0.001) for a median daily dose of 500 mL of tea (2–3 cups). This is a relative increase of approximately 40 % compared to the average FMD of 6.3% measured under placebo or baseline conditions. There was significant heterogeneity between studies (P-value,0.001) tha

Evaluation of ER, PgR, HER-2 and Ki-67 as predictors of response to neoadjuvant anthracycline chemotherapy for operable breast cancer

Primary systemic therapy (PST) for operable breast cancer enables the identification of in vivo biological markers that predict response to treatment. A total of 118 patients with T2–4 N0–1 M0 primary breast cancer received six cycles of anthracycline-based PST. Clinical and radiological response was assessed before and after treatment using UICC criteria. A grading system to score pathological response was devised. Diagnostic biopsies and postchemotherapy surgical specimens were stained for oestrogen (ER) and progesterone (PgR) receptor, HER-2 and cell proliferation (Ki-67). Clinical, radiological and pathological response rates were 78, 72 and 38%, respectively. There was a strong correlation between ER and PgR staining (P<0.0001). Higher Ki-67 proliferation indices were associated with PgR− tumours (median 28.3%, PgR+ 22.9%; P=0.042). There was no relationship between HER-2 and other biological markers. No single pretreatment or postchemotherapy biological parameter predicted response by any modality of assessment. In all, 10 tumours changed hormone receptor classification after chemotherapy (three ER, seven PgR); HER-2 staining changed in nine cases. Median Ki-67 index was 24.9% before and 18.1% after treatment (P=0.02); the median reduction in Ki-67 index after treatment was 21.2%. Tumours displaying >75% reduction in Ki-67 after chemotherapy were more likely to achieve a pathological response (77.8 vs 26.7%, P=0.004)

ITALIAN CANCER FIGURES - REPORT 2015: The burden of rare cancers in Italy = I TUMORI IN ITALIA - RAPPORTO 2015: I tumori rari in Italia

OBJECTIVES: This collaborative study, based on data collected by the network of Italian Cancer Registries (AIRTUM), describes the burden of rare cancers in Italy. Estimated number of new rare cancer cases yearly diagnosed (incidence), proportion of patients alive after diagnosis (survival), and estimated number of people still alive after a new cancer diagnosis (prevalence) are provided for about 200 different cancer entities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data herein presented were provided by AIRTUM population- based cancer registries (CRs), covering nowadays 52% of the Italian population. This monograph uses the AIRTUM database (January 2015), which includes all malignant cancer cases diagnosed between 1976 and 2010. All cases are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3). Data underwent standard quality checks (described in the AIRTUM data management protocol) and were checked against rare-cancer specific quality indicators proposed and published by RARECARE and HAEMACARE (www.rarecarenet.eu; www.haemacare.eu). The definition and list of rare cancers proposed by the RARECAREnet "Information Network on Rare Cancers" project were adopted: rare cancers are entities (defined as a combination of topographical and morphological codes of the ICD-O-3) having an incidence rate of less than 6 per 100,000 per year in the European population. This monograph presents 198 rare cancers grouped in 14 major groups. Crude incidence rates were estimated as the number of all new cancers occurring in 2000-2010 divided by the overall population at risk, for males and females (also for gender-specific tumours).The proportion of rare cancers out of the total cancers (rare and common) by site was also calculated. Incidence rates by sex and age are reported. The expected number of new cases in 2015 in Italy was estimated assuming the incidence in Italy to be the same as in the AIRTUM area. One- and 5-year relative survival estimates of cases aged 0-99 years diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 in the AIRTUM database, and followed up to 31 December 2009, were calculated using complete cohort survival analysis. To estimate the observed prevalence in Italy, incidence and follow-up data from 11 CRs for the period 1992-2006 were used, with a prevalence index date of 1 January 2007. Observed prevalence in the general population was disentangled by time prior to the reference date (≤2 years, 2-5 years, ≤15 years). To calculate the complete prevalence proportion at 1 January 2007 in Italy, the 15-year observed prevalence was corrected by the completeness index, in order to account for those cancer survivors diagnosed before the cancer registry activity started. The completeness index by cancer and age was obtained by means of statistical regression models, using incidence and survival data available in the European RARECAREnet data. RESULTS: In total, 339,403 tumours were included in the incidence analysis. The annual incidence rate (IR) of all 198 rare cancers in the period 2000-2010 was 147 per 100,000 per year, corresponding to about 89,000 new diagnoses in Italy each year, accounting for 25% of all cancer. Five cancers, rare at European level, were not rare in Italy because their IR was higher than 6 per 100,000; these tumours were: diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and squamous cell carcinoma of larynx (whose IRs in Italy were 7 per 100,000), multiple myeloma (IR: 8 per 100,000), hepatocellular carcinoma (IR: 9 per 100,000) and carcinoma of thyroid gland (IR: 14 per 100,000). Among the remaining 193 rare cancers, more than two thirds (No. 139) had an annual IR &lt;0.5 per 100,000, accounting for about 7,100 new cancers cases; for 25 cancer types, the IR ranged between 0.5 and 1 per 100,000, accounting for about 10,000 new diagnoses; while for 29 cancer types the IR was between 1 and 6 per 100,000, accounting for about 41,000 new cancer cases. Among all rare cancers diagnosed in Italy, 7% were rare haematological diseases (IR: 41 per 100,000), 18% were solid rare cancers. Among the latter, the rare epithelial tumours of the digestive system were the most common (23%, IR: 26 per 100,000), followed by epithelial tumours of head and neck (17%, IR: 19) and rare cancers of the female genital system (17%, IR: 17), endocrine tumours (13% including thyroid carcinomas and less than 1% with an IR of 0.4 excluding thyroid carcinomas), sarcomas (8%, IR: 9 per 100,000), central nervous system tumours and rare epithelial tumours of the thoracic cavity (5%with an IR equal to 6 and 5 per 100,000, respectively). The remaining (rare male genital tumours, IR: 4 per 100,000; tumours of eye, IR: 0.7 per 100,000; neuroendocrine tumours, IR: 4 per 100,000; embryonal tumours, IR: 0.4 per 100,000; rare skin tumours and malignant melanoma of mucosae, IR: 0.8 per 100,000) each constituted &lt;4% of all solid rare cancers. Patients with rare cancers were on average younger than those with common cancers. Essentially, all childhood cancers were rare, while after age 40 years, the common cancers (breast, prostate, colon, rectum, and lung) became increasingly more frequent. For 254,821 rare cancers diagnosed in 2000-2008, 5-year RS was on average 55%, lower than the corresponding figures for patients with common cancers (68%). RS was lower for rare cancers than for common cancers at 1 year and continued to diverge up to 3 years, while the gap remained constant from 3 to 5 years after diagnosis. For rare and common cancers, survival decreased with increasing age. Five-year RS was similar and high for both rare and common cancers up to 54 years; it decreased with age, especially after 54 years, with the elderly (75+ years) having a 37% and 20% lower survival than those aged 55-64 years for rare and common cancers, respectively. We estimated that about 900,000 people were alive in Italy with a previous diagnosis of a rare cancer in 2010 (prevalence). The highest prevalence was observed for rare haematological diseases (278 per 100,000) and rare tumours of the female genital system (265 per 100,000). Very low prevalence (&lt;10 prt 100,000) was observed for rare epithelial skin cancers, for rare epithelial tumours of the digestive system and rare epithelial tumours of the thoracic cavity. COMMENTS: One in four cancers cases diagnosed in Italy is a rare cancer, in agreement with estimates of 24% calculated in Europe overall. In Italy, the group of all rare cancers combined, include 5 cancer types with an IR&gt;6 per 100,000 in Italy, in particular thyroid cancer (IR: 14 per 100,000).The exclusion of thyroid carcinoma from rare cancers reduces the proportion of them in Italy in 2010 to 22%. Differences in incidence across population can be due to the different distribution of risk factors (whether environmental, lifestyle, occupational, or genetic), heterogeneous diagnostic intensity activity, as well as different diagnostic capacity; moreover heterogeneity in accuracy of registration may determine some minor differences in the account of rare cancers. Rare cancers had worse prognosis than common cancers at 1, 3, and 5 years from diagnosis. Differences between rare and common cancers were small 1 year after diagnosis, but survival for rare cancers declined more markedly thereafter, consistent with the idea that treatments for rare cancers are less effective than those for common cancers. However, differences in stage at diagnosis could not be excluded, as 1- and 3-year RS for rare cancers was lower than the corresponding figures for common cancers. Moreover, rare cancers include many cancer entities with a bad prognosis (5-year RS &lt;50%): cancer of head and neck, oesophagus, small intestine, ovary, brain, biliary tract, liver, pleura, multiple myeloma, acute myeloid and lymphatic leukaemia; in contrast, most common cancer cases are breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers, which have a good prognosis. The high prevalence observed for rare haematological diseases and rare tumours of the female genital system is due to their high incidence (the majority of haematological diseases are rare and gynaecological cancers added up to fairly high incidence rates) and relatively good prognosis. The low prevalence of rare epithelial tumours of the digestive system was due to the low survival rates of the majority of tumours included in this group (oesophagus, stomach, small intestine, pancreas, and liver), regardless of the high incidence rate of rare epithelial cancers of these sites. This AIRTUM study confirms that rare cancers are a major public health problem in Italy and provides quantitative estimations, for the first time in Italy, to a problem long known to exist. This monograph provides detailed epidemiologic indicators for almost 200 rare cancers, the majority of which (72%) are very rare (IR&lt;0.5 per 100,000). These data are of major interest for different stakeholders. Health care planners can find useful information herein to properly plan and think of how to reorganise health care services. Researchers now have numbers to design clinical trials considering alternative study designs and statistical approaches. Population-based cancer registries with good quality data are the best source of information to describe the rare cancer burden in a population