A risk profile for identifying community-dwelling elderly with a highrisk of recurrent falling: results of a 3-year prospective study

Introduction: The aim of the prospective study reported here was to develop a risk profile that can be used to identify community-dwelling elderly at a high risk of recurrent falling. Materials and methods: The study was designed as a 3-year prospective cohort study. A total of 1365 community-dwelling persons, aged 65 years and older, of the population-based Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam participated in the study. During an interview in 1995/1996, physical, cognitive, emotional and social aspects of functioning were assessed. A follow-up on the number of falls and fractures was conducted during a 3-year period using fall calendars that participants filled out weekly. Recurrent fallers were identified as those who fell at least twice within a 6-month period during the 3-year follow-up. Results: The incidence of recurrent falls at the 3-year follow-up point was 24.9% in women and 24.4% in men. Of the respondents, 5.5% reported a total of 87 fractures that resulted from a fall, including 20 hip fractures, 21 wrist fractures and seven humerus fractures. Recurrent fallers were more prone to have a fall-related fracture than those who were not defined as recurrent fallers (11.9% vs. 3.4%; OR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.3-6.1). Backward logistic regression analysis identified the following predictors in the risk profile for recurrent falling: two or more previous falls, dizziness, functional limitations, weak grip strength, low body weight, fear of falling, the presence of dogs/cats in the household, a high educational level, drinking 18 or more alcoholic consumptions per week and two interaction terms (high educationx18 or more alcohol consumptions per week and two or more previous falls x fear of falling) (AUC=0.71). Discussion: At a cut-off point of 5 on the total risk score (range 0-30), the model predicted recurrent falling with a sensitivity of 59% and a specificity of 71%. At a cut-off point of 10, the sensitivity and specificity were 31% and 92%, respectively. A risk profile including nine predictors that can easily be assessed seems to be a useful tool for the identification of community-dwelling elderly with a high risk of recurrent falling. © International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation 2006

Children and older adults exhibit distinct sub-optimal cost-benefit functions when preparing to move their eyes and hands

"© 2015 Gonzalez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited"Numerous activities require an individual to respond quickly to the correct stimulus. The provision of advance information allows response priming but heightened responses can cause errors (responding too early or reacting to the wrong stimulus). Thus, a balance is required between the online cognitive mechanisms (inhibitory and anticipatory) used to prepare and execute a motor response at the appropriate time. We investigated the use of advance information in 71 participants across four different age groups: (i) children, (ii) young adults, (iii) middle-aged adults, and (iv) older adults. We implemented 'cued' and 'non-cued' conditions to assess age-related changes in saccadic and touch responses to targets in three movement conditions: (a) Eyes only; (b) Hands only; (c) Eyes and Hand. Children made less saccade errors compared to young adults, but they also exhibited longer response times in cued versus non-cued conditions. In contrast, older adults showed faster responses in cued conditions but exhibited more errors. The results indicate that young adults (18 -25 years) achieve an optimal balance between anticipation and execution. In contrast, children show benefits (few errors) and costs (slow responses) of good inhibition when preparing a motor response based on advance information; whilst older adults show the benefits and costs associated with a prospective response strategy (i.e., good anticipation)

Real-time fermions for baryogenesis simulations

We study how to numerically simulate quantum fermions out of thermal equilibrium, in the context of electroweak baryogenesis. We find that by combining the lattice implementation of Aarts and Smit [1] with the "low cost" fermions of Borsanyi and Hindmarsh [2], we are able to describe the dynamics of a classical bosonic system coupled to quantum fermions, that correctly reproduces anomalous baryon number violation. To demonstrate the method, we apply it to the 1+1 dimensional axial U(1) model, and perform simulations of a fast symmetry breaking transition. Compared to solving all the quantum mode equations as in [1], we find that this statistical approach may lead to a significant gain in computational time, when applied to 3+1 dimensional physics

Increased risk of pneumonia in residents living near poultry farms: does the upper respiratory tract microbiota play a role?

BACKGROUND: Air pollution has been shown to increase the susceptibility to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Previously, we observed an increased incidence of CAP in adults living within 1 km from poultry farms, potentially related to particulate matter and endotoxin emissions. We aim to confirm the increased risk of CAP near poultry farms by refined spatial analyses, and we hypothesize that the oropharyngeal microbiota composition in CAP patients may be associated with residential proximity to poultry farms. METHODS: A spatial kernel model was used to analyze the association between proximity to poultry farms and CAP diagnosis, obtained from electronic medical records of 92,548 GP patients. The oropharyngeal microbiota composition was determined in 126 hospitalized CAP patients using 16S-rRNA-based sequencing, and analyzed in relation to residential proximity to poultry farms. RESULTS: Kernel analysis confirmed a significantly increased risk of CAP when living near poultry farms, suggesting an excess risk up to 1.15 km, followed by a sharp decline. Overall, the oropharyngeal microbiota composition differed borderline significantly between patients living <1 km and ≥1 km from poultry farms (PERMANOVA p = 0.075). Results suggested a higher abundance of Streptococcus pneumoniae (mean relative abundance 34.9% vs. 22.5%, p = 0.058) in patients living near poultry farms, which was verified by unsupervised clustering analysis, showing overrepresentation of a S. pneumoniae cluster near poultry farms (p = 0.049). CONCLUSION: Living near poultry farms is associated with an 11% increased risk of CAP, possibly resulting from changes in the upper respiratory tract microbiota composition in susceptible individuals. The abundance of S. pneumoniae near farms needs to be replicated in larger, independent studies

Lorentzian and Euclidean Quantum Gravity - Analytical and Numerical Results

We review some recent attempts to extract information about the nature of quantum gravity, with and without matter, by quantum field theoretical methods. More specifically, we work within a covariant lattice approach where the individual space-time geometries are constructed from fundamental simplicial building blocks, and the path integral over geometries is approximated by summing over a class of piece-wise linear geometries. This method of ``dynamical triangulations'' is very powerful in 2d, where the regularized theory can be solved explicitly, and gives us more insights into the quantum nature of 2d space-time than continuum methods are presently able to provide. It also allows us to establish an explicit relation between the Lorentzian- and Euclidean-signature quantum theories. Analogous regularized gravitational models can be set up in higher dimensions. Some analytic tools exist to study their state sums, but, unlike in 2d, no complete analytic solutions have yet been constructed. However, a great advantage of our approach is the fact that it is well-suited for numerical simulations. In the second part of this review we describe the relevant Monte Carlo techniques, as well as some of the physical results that have been obtained from the simulations of Euclidean gravity. We also explain why the Lorentzian version of dynamical triangulations is a promising candidate for a non-perturbative theory of quantum gravity.Comment: 69 pages, 16 figures, references adde

Endophenotypes in a Dynamically Connected Brain

We examined the longitudinal genetic architecture of three parameters of functional brain connectivity. One parameter described overall connectivity (synchronization likelihood, SL). The two others were derived from graph theory and described local (clustering coefficient, CC) and global (average path length, L) aspects of connectivity. We measured resting state EEG in 1,438 subjects from four age groups of about 16, 18, 25 and 50 years. Developmental curves for SL and L indicate that connectivity is more random at adolescence and old age, and more structured in middle-aged adulthood. Individual variation in SL and L were moderately to highly heritable at each age (SL: 40–82%; L: 29–63%). Genetic factors underlying these phenotypes overlapped. CC was also heritable (25–49%) but showed no systematic overlap with SL and L. SL, CC, and L in the alpha band showed high phenotypic and genetic stability from 16 to 25 years. Heritability for parameters in the beta band was lower, and less stable across ages, but genetic stability was high. We conclude that the connectivity parameters SL, CC, and L in the alpha band show the hallmarks of a good endophenotype for behavior and developmental disorders

Imaging of programmed cell death in arrhythmogenic right ventricle cardiomyopathy/dysplasia

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy/dysplasia (ARVC/D) is a myocardial disease that predominantly affects the right ventricle (RV). Its hallmark feature is fibrofatty replacement of the RV myocardium. Apoptosis in ARVC/D has been proposed as an important process that mediates the slow, ongoing loss of heart muscle cells which is followed by ventricular dysfunction. We aimed to establish whether cardiac apoptosis can be assessed noninvasively in patients with ARVC/D. Six patients fulfilling the ARVC/D criteria were studied. Regional myocardial apoptosis was assessed with (99m)Tc-annexin V scintigraphy. Overall, the RV wall showed a higher (99m)Tc-annexin V signal than the left ventricular wall (p = 0.049) and the interventricular septum (p = 0.026). However, significantly increased uptake of (99m)Tc-annexin V in the RV was present in only three of the six ARVC/D patients (p = 0.001, compared to (99m)Tc-annexin V uptake in the RV wall of the other three patients). Our results are suggestive of a chamber-specific apoptotic process. Although the role of apoptosis in ARVC/D is unsolved, the ability to assess apoptosis noninvasively may aid in the diagnostic course. In addition, the ability to detect apoptosis in vivo with (99m)Tc-annexin V scintigraphy might allow individual monitoring of disease progression and response to diverse treatments aimed at counteracting ARVC/D progressio

Discrete approaches to quantum gravity in four dimensions

The construction of a consistent theory of quantum gravity is a problem in theoretical physics that has so far defied all attempts at resolution. One ansatz to try to obtain a non-trivial quantum theory proceeds via a discretization of space-time and the Einstein action. I review here three major areas of research: gauge-theoretic approaches, both in a path-integral and a Hamiltonian formulation, quantum Regge calculus, and the method of dynamical triangulations, confining attention to work that is strictly four-dimensional, strictly discrete, and strictly quantum in nature.Comment: 33 pages, invited contribution to Living Reviews in Relativity; the author welcomes any comments and suggestion

Analytic philosophy for biomedical research: the imperative of applying yesterday's timeless messages to today's impasses

The mantra that "the best way to predict the future is to invent it" (attributed to the computer scientist Alan Kay) exemplifies some of the expectations from the technical and innovative sides of biomedical research at present. However, for technical advancements to make real impacts both on patient health and genuine scientific understanding, quite a number of lingering challenges facing the entire spectrum from protein biology all the way to randomized controlled trials should start to be overcome. The proposal in this chapter is that philosophy is essential in this process. By reviewing select examples from the history of science and philosophy, disciplines which were indistinguishable until the mid-nineteenth century, I argue that progress toward the many impasses in biomedicine can be achieved by emphasizing theoretical work (in the true sense of the word 'theory') as a vital foundation for experimental biology. Furthermore, a philosophical biology program that could provide a framework for theoretical investigations is outlined

Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network

The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to$30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance