Impact of Generalist Physician Initiatives on Residency Selection

Objective:To compare the residency selection choices of students who experienced courses resulting from generalist physician initiatives to choices made by students prior to the implementation of those courses and to describe the characteristics of students selecting primary care residencies. Background:In the fall of 1994 a first year Community Continuity Experience course was initiated and in the summer of 1995 a third year Multidisciplinary Ambulatory Clerkship was begun at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston. These courses were inserted into the curriculum to enhance and promote primary care education. Design/Methods:We examined the residency selections of cohorts of graduating medical students before (1992-1996) and after (1997-1999) the implementation of the primary care courses. Survey information on career preferences at matriculation and in the fourth year of medical school were available for students graduating after the programs began. We compared the career preferences and characteristics of those students who selected a primary care residency to those who did not. Results:Prior to the implementation of the programs, 45%(425/950) of students graduating selected primary care residencies compared to 45% (210/465) of students participating in the programs (p=0.88). At matriculation, 45% of students had listed a primary care discipline as their first career choice. Among the students who had indicated this degree of primary care interest 61% ended up matching in a primary care discipline. At year 4, 31% of students indicated a primary care discipline as their first career choice and 92% of these students matched to a primary care residency. By univariate analysis, minority students (53%) were more likely to select a primary care residency than non-minority students (40%); students in the two lowest grade point average quartiles (55% and 50%) selected primary care residencies compared to 37% and 38% of students in the top 2 quartiles; and students who stated that income potential had little or no impact on their choice were more likely to select a primary care residency (48%) than those who said income potential was important (37%). Conclusions:We observed no significant trend towards higher proportions of graduating students selecting primary care discipline residencies as a result of implementing courses that emphasized primary care. Those students expressing an interest in a primary care discipline at their entrance into medical school were more likely to select a primary care residency. A more significant impact on graduating students interested in primary care may be made through the medical student selection process than by altering the curriculum

Posterior-based proposals for speeding up Markov chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development of application specific implementations. This paper introduces "posterior-based proposals" (PBPs), a new type of MCMC update applicable to a huge class of statistical models (whose conditional dependence structures are represented by directed acyclic graphs). PBPs generates large joint updates in parameter and latent variable space, whilst retaining good acceptance rates (typically 33%). Evaluation against other approaches (from standard Gibbs / random walk updates to state-of-the-art Hamiltonian and particle MCMC methods) was carried out for widely varying model types: an individual-based model for disease diagnostic test data, a financial stochastic volatility model, a mixed model used in statistical genetics and a population model used in ecology. Whilst different methods worked better or worse in different scenarios, PBPs were found to be either near to the fastest or significantly faster than the next best approach (by up to a factor of 10). PBPs therefore represent an additional general purpose technique that can be usefully applied in a wide variety of contexts.Comment: 54 pages, 11 figures, 2 table

Association between proton pump inhibitor therapy and clostridium difficile infection: a contemporary systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract Introduction Emerging epidemiological evidence suggests that proton pump inhibitor (PPI) acid-suppression therapy is associated with an increased risk of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Methods Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, and Scopus were searched from 1990 to January 2012 for analytical studies that reported an adjusted effect estimate of the association between PPI use and CDI. We performed random-effect meta-analyses. We used the GRADE framework to interpret the findings. Results We identified 47 eligible citations (37 case-control and 14 cohort studies) with corresponding 51 effect estimates. The pooled OR was 1.65, 95% CI (1.47, 1.85), I2 = 89.9%, with evidence of publication bias suggested by a contour funnel plot. A novel regression based method was used to adjust for publication bias and resulted in an adjusted pooled OR of 1.51 (95% CI, 1.26–1.83). In a speculative analysis that assumes that this association is based on causality, and based on published baseline CDI incidence, the risk of CDI would be very low in the general population taking PPIs with an estimated NNH of 3925 at 1 year. Conclusions In this rigorously conducted systemic review and meta-analysis, we found very low quality evidence (GRADE class) for an association between PPI use and CDI that does not support a cause-effect relationship

The association between histamine 2 receptor antagonist use and Clostridium difficile infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a major health problem. Epidemiological evidence suggests that there is an association between acid suppression therapy and development of CDI. Purpose We sought to systematically review the literature that examined the association between histamine 2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs) and CDI. Data source We searched Medline, Current Contents, Embase, ISI Web of Science and Elsevier Scopus from 1990 to 2012 for all analytical studies that examined the association between H2RAs and CDI. Study selection Two authors independently reviewed the studies for eligibility. Data extraction Data about studies characteristics, adjusted effect estimates and quality were extracted. Data synthesis Thirty-five observations from 33 eligible studies that included 201834 participants were analyzed. Studies were performed in 6 countries and nine of them were multicenter. Most studies did not specify the type or duration of H2RAs therapy. The pooled effect estimate was 1.44, 95% CI (1.22–1.7), I2 = 70.5%. This association was consistent across different subgroups (by study design and country) and there was no evidence of publication bias. The pooled effect estimate for high quality studies was 1.39 (1.15–1.68), I2 = 72.3%. Meta-regression analysis of 10 study-level variables did not identify sources of heterogeneity. In a speculative analysis, the number needed to harm (NNH) with H2RAs at 14 days after hospital admission in patients receiving antibiotics or not was 58, 95% CI (37, 115) and 425, 95% CI (267, 848), respectively. For the general population, the NNH at 1 year was 4549, 95% CI (2860, 9097). Conclusion In this rigorous systematic review and meta-analysis, we observed an association between H2RAs and CDI. The absolute risk of CDI associated with H2RAs is highest in hospitalized patients receiving antibiotics

Revised estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, United States, 1995 through 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is thought to be substantial. However, influenza may often not be recognized as cause of death. Imputation methods are therefore required to assess the public health impact of influenza. The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of monthly excess mortality due to influenza that are based on an epidemiologically meaningful model.</p> <p>Methods and Results</p> <p>U.S. monthly all-cause mortality, 1995 through 2005, was hierarchically modeled as Poisson variable with a mean that linearly depends both on seasonal covariates and on influenza-certified mortality. It also allowed for overdispersion to account for extra variation that is not captured by the Poisson error. The coefficient associated with influenza-certified mortality was interpreted as ratio of total influenza mortality to influenza-certified mortality. Separate models were fitted for four age categories (<18, 18–49, 50–64, 65+). Bayesian parameter estimation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For the eleven year study period, a total of 260,814 (95% CI: 201,011–290,556) deaths was attributed to influenza, corresponding to an annual average of 23,710, or 0.91% of all deaths.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Annual estimates for influenza mortality were highly variable from year to year, but they were systematically lower than previously published estimates. The excellent fit of our model with the data suggest validity of our estimates.</p

Neurobehavioral consequences of chronic intrauterine opioid exposure in infants and preschool children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; It is assumed within the accumulated literature that children born of pregnant opioid dependent mothers have impaired neurobehavioral function as a consequence of chronic intrauterine opioid use.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Quantitative and systematic review of the literature on the consequences of chronic maternal opioid use during pregnancy on neurobehavioral function of children was conducted using the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. We searched Cinahl, EMBASE, PsychINFO and MEDLINE between the periods of January 1995 to January 2012.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; There were only 5 studies out of the 200 identified that quantitatively reported on neurobehavioral function of children after maternal opioid use during pregnancy. All 5 were case control studies with the number of exposed subjects within the studies ranging from 33–143 and 45–85 for the controls. This meta-analysis showed no significant impairments, at a non-conservative significance level of p &#60; 0.05, for cognitive, psychomotor or observed behavioural outcomes for chronic intra-uterine exposed infants and pre-school children compared to non-exposed infants and children. However, all domains suggested a trend to poor outcomes in infants/children of opioid using mothers. The magnitude of all possible effects was small according to Cohen’s benchmark criteria.&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusions&lt;/b&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt; Chronic intra-uterine opioid exposed infants and pre-school children experienced no significant impairment in neurobehavioral outcomes when compared to non-exposed peers, although in all domains there was a trend to poorer outcomes. The findings of this review are limited by the small number of studies analysed, the heterogenous populations and small numbers within the individual studies. Longitudinal studies are needed to determine if any neuropsychological impairments appear after the age of 5 years and to help investigate further the role of environmental risk factors on the effect of ‘core’ phenotypes

Value of syndromic surveillance within the Armed Forces for early warning during a dengue fever outbreak in French Guiana in 2006

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A dengue fever outbreak occured in French Guiana in 2006. The objectives were to study the value of a syndromic surveillance system set up within the armed forces, compared to the traditional clinical surveillance system during this outbreak, to highlight issues involved in comparing military and civilian surveillance systems and to discuss the interest of syndromic surveillance for public health response.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Military syndromic surveillance allows the surveillance of suspected dengue fever cases among the 3,000 armed forces personnel. Within the same population, clinical surveillance uses several definition criteria for dengue fever cases, depending on the epidemiological situation. Civilian laboratory surveillance allows the surveillance of biologically confirmed cases, within the 200,000 inhabitants.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>It was shown that syndromic surveillance detected the dengue fever outbreak several weeks before clinical surveillance, allowing quick and effective enhancement of vector control within the armed forces. Syndromic surveillance was also found to have detected the outbreak before civilian laboratory surveillance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Military syndromic surveillance allowed an early warning for this outbreak to be issued, enabling a quicker public health response by the armed forces. Civilian surveillance system has since introduced syndromic surveillance as part of its surveillance strategy. This should enable quicker public health responses in the future.</p

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug induced acute kidney injury in the community dwelling general population and people with chronic kidney disease:Systematic review and meta-analysis

Complete search strategy. The complete search strategy for the systematic review for both Medline and Embase. (DOCX 22 kb

REporting recommendations for tumour MARKer prognostic studies (REMARK)

Despite years of research and hundreds of reports on tumour markers in oncology, the number of markers that have emerged as clinically useful is pitifully small. Often initially reported studies of a marker show great promise, but subsequent studies on the same or related markers yield inconsistent conclusions or stand in direct contradiction to the promising results. It is imperative that we attempt to understand the reasons that multiple studies of the same marker lead to differing conclusions. A variety of methodological problems have been cited to explain these discrepancies. Unfortunately, many tumour marker studies have not been reported in a rigorous fashion, and published articles often lack sufficient information to allow adequate assessment of the quality of the study or the generalisability of the study results. The development of guidelines for the reporting of tumour marker studies was a major recommendation of the US National Cancer Institute and the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (NCI-EORTC) First International Meeting on Cancer Diagnostics in 2000. Similar to the successful CONSORT initiative for randomised trials and the STARD statement for diagnostic studies, we suggest guidelines to provide relevant information about the study design, preplanned hypotheses, patient and specimen characteristics, assay methods, and statistical analysis methods. In addition, the guidelines suggest helpful presentations of data and important elements to include in discussions. The goal of these guidelines is to encourage transparent and complete reporting so that the relevant information will be available to others to help them to judge the usefulness of the data and understand the context in which the conclusions apply

Estimates of probable dementia prevalence from population-based surveys compared with dementia prevalence estimates based on meta-analyses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>National data on dementia prevalence are not always available, yet it may be possible to obtain estimates from large surveys that include dementia screening instruments. In Australia, many of the dementia prevalence estimates are based on European data collected between 15 and 50 years ago. We derived population-based estimates of probable dementia and possible cognitive impairment in Australian studies using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and compared these to estimates of dementia prevalence from meta-analyses of European studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data sources included a pooled dataset of Australian longitudinal studies (DYNOPTA), and two Australian Bureau of Statistics National Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing. National rates of probable dementia (MMSE < 24) and possible cognitive impairment (24-26) were estimated using combined sample weights.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Estimates of probable dementia were higher in surveys than in meta-analyses for ages 65-84, but were similar at ages 85 and older. Surveys used weights to account for sample bias, but no adjustments were made in meta-analyses. Results from DYNOPTA and meta-analyses had a very similar pattern of increase with age. Contrary to trends from some meta-analyses, rates of probable dementia were not higher among women in the Australian surveys. Lower education was associated with higher prevalence of probable dementia. Data from investigator-led longitudinal studies designed to assess cognitive decline appeared more reliable than government health surveys.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study shows that estimates of probable dementia based on MMSE in studies where cognitive decline and dementia are a focus, are a useful adjunct to clinical studies of dementia prevalence. Such information and may be used to inform projections of dementia prevalence and the concomitant burden of disease.</p