Revisiting the Glick-Rogoff Current Account Model: An Application to the Current Accounts of BRICS Countries

Understanding what drives the changes in current accounts is one of the most important macroeconomic issues for developing countries. Excessive surpluses in current accounts can trigger trade wars, and excessive deficits in current accounts can, on the other hand, induce currency crises. The Glick-Rogoff (1995, Journal of Monetary Economics) model, which emphasizes productivity shocks at home and in the world, fit well with developed economies in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the Glick-Rogoff model fits poorly when it is applied to fast-growing BRICS countries for the period including the global financial crisis. We conclude that different mechanisms of current accounts work for developed and developing countries

Changes in body weight and food choice in those attempting smoking cessation: a cluster randomised controlled trial

<p><b>Background:</b> Fear of weight gain is a barrier to smoking cessation and significant cause of relapse for many people. The provision of nutritional advice as part of a smoking cessation programme may assist some in smoking cessation and perhaps limit weight gain. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of a structured programme of dietary advice on weight change and food choice, in adults attempting smoking cessation.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Cluster randomised controlled design. Classes randomised to intervention commenced a 24-week intervention, focussed on improving food choice and minimising weight gain. Classes randomised to control received "usual care".</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Twenty-seven classes in Greater Glasgow were randomised between January and August 2008. Analysis, including those who continued to smoke, showed that actual weight gain and percentage weight gain was similar in both groups. Examination of data for those successful at giving up smoking showed greater mean weight gain in intervention subjects (3.9 (SD 3.1) vs. 2.7 (SD 3.7) kg). Between group differences were not significant (p=0.23, 95% CI -0.9 to 3.5). In comparison to baseline improved consumption of fruit and vegetables and breakfast cereal were reported in the intervention group. A higher percentage of control participants continued smoking (74% vs. 66%).</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> The intervention was not successful at minimising weight gain in comparison to control but was successful in facilitating some sustained improvements in the dietary habits of intervention participants. Improved quit rates in the intervention group suggest that continued contact with advisors may have reduced anxieties regarding weight gain and encouraged cessation despite weight gain. Research should continue in this area as evidence suggests that the negative effects of obesity could outweigh the health benefits achieved through reductions in smoking prevalence.</p&gt

Global Networks of Trade and Bits

Considerable efforts have been made in recent years to produce detailed topologies of the Internet. Although Internet topology data have been brought to the attention of a wide and somewhat diverse audience of scholars, so far they have been overlooked by economists. In this paper, we suggest that such data could be effectively treated as a proxy to characterize the size of the "digital economy" at country level and outsourcing: thus, we analyse the topological structure of the network of trade in digital services (trade in bits) and compare it with that of the more traditional flow of manufactured goods across countries. To perform meaningful comparisons across networks with different characteristics, we define a stochastic benchmark for the number of connections among each country-pair, based on hypergeometric distribution. Original data are thus filtered by means of different thresholds, so that we only focus on the strongest links, i.e., statistically significant links. We find that trade in bits displays a sparser and less hierarchical network structure, which is more similar to trade in high-skill manufactured goods than total trade. Lastly, distance plays a more prominent role in shaping the network of international trade in physical goods than trade in digital services.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

Do Democracies Have Higher Current Account Deficits?

In this paper we argue that democracies tend to run (larger)current account deficits than autocracies. Our argument is based on the different incentives faced by democratic and autocratic leaders. The main theoretical hypothesis are tested on a dataset that consists of 121 countries over the period 1980-2012, using five year averages and a fixed effects panel data model. The empirical findings suggest that autocracies run lower current account deficits than democracies. Special focus is given in the issue of endogeneity by estimating an IV Fixed Effects model, using as instruments of Democracy the share of Christian adherents in each country and also the level of democracy in neighboring countries. These results are found to be robust across alternative empirical specifications

A global bond: Explaining the safe-haven status of US Treasury securities

This article offers new theoretical and empirical insights to explain the resilience of US Treasury securities as the world’s premier safe or “risk-free” asset. The standard explanation of resilience emphasizes the relative safety of US Treasuries due to a shortage of safe assets in the global political economy. The analysis here goes beyond the standard explanation to highlight the importance of domestic politics in reinforcing the safe status of US Treasury securities. In particular, the research shows how a formidable “bond” of interests unites domestic and foreign owners of the public debt and works to sustain US power in global finance. Foreigners, who now own roughly half of the US public debt, have something to gain from their domestic counterparts. The top 1% of US households, which dominate domestic ownership of US Treasuries, has considerable political clout, thus alleviating foreign concerns about the creditworthiness of the US federal government. Domestic owners, in turn, benefit from the seemingly insatiable foreign appetite for US Treasury securities. In supplying the US federal government and US households with cheap credit, foreign investors in US Treasuries help to deflect challenges to the top 1% within the wealth and income hierarchy

Biallelic mutations in IRF8 impair human NK cell maturation and function

Human NK cell deficiencies are rare yet result in severe and often fatal disease, particularly as a result of viral susceptibility. NK cells develop from hematopoietic stem cells, and few monogenic errors that specifically interrupt NK cell development have been reported. Here we have described biallelic mutations in IRF8, which encodes an interferon regulatory factor, as a cause of familial NK cell deficiency that results in fatal and severe viral disease. Compound heterozygous or homozygous mutations in IRF8 in 3 unrelated families resulted in a paucity of mature CD56dim NK cells and an increase in the frequency of the immature CD56bright NK cells, and this impairment in terminal maturation was also observed in Irf8–/–, but not Irf8+/–, mice. We then determined that impaired maturation was NK cell intrinsic, and gene expression analysis of human NK cell developmental subsets showed that multiple genes were dysregulated by IRF8 mutation. The phenotype was accompanied by deficient NK cell function and was stable over time. Together, these data indicate that human NK cells require IRF8 for development and functional maturation and that dysregulation of this function results in severe human disease, thereby emphasizing a critical role for NK cells in human antiviral defense

E-health: Determinants, opportunities, challenges and the way forward for countries in the WHO African Region

BACKGROUND: The implementation of the 58(th )World Health Assembly resolution on e-health will pose a major challenge for the Member States of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region due to lack of information and communications technology (ICT) and mass Internet connectivity, compounded by a paucity of ICT-related knowledge and skills. The key objectives of this article are to: (i) explore the key determinants of personal computers (PCs), telephone mainline and cellular and Internet penetration/connectivity in the African Region; and (ii) to propose actions needed to create an enabling environment for e-health services growth and utilization in the Region. METHODS: The effects of school enrolment, per capita income and governance variables on the number of PCs, telephone mainlines, cellular phone subscribers and Internet users were estimated using a double-log regression model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries that comprise the Region. The data were obtained from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) sources. RESULTS: There were a number of main findings: (i) the adult literacy and total number of Internet users had a statistically significant (at 5% level in a t-distribution test) positive effect on the number of PCs in a country; (ii) the combined school enrolment rate and per capita income had a statistically significant direct effect on the number of telephone mainlines and cellular telephone subscribers; (iii) the regulatory quality had statistically significant negative effect on the number of telephone mainlines; (iv) similarly, the combined school enrolment ratio and the number of telephone mainlines had a statistically significant positive relationship with Internet usage; and (v) there were major inequalities in ICT connectivity between upper-middle, lower-middle and low income countries in the Region. By focusing on the adoption of specific technologies we attempted to interpret correlates in terms of relationships instead of absolute "causals". CONCLUSION: In order to improve access to health care, especially for the majority of Africans living in remote rural areas, there is need to boost the availability and utilization of e-health services. Thus, universal access to e-health ought to be a vision for all countries in the African Region. Each country ought to develop a road map in a strategic e-health plan that will, over time, enable its citizens to realize that vision

Prevalence of asthma symptoms based on the European Community Respiratory Health Survey questionnaire and FENO in university students: gender differences in symptoms and FENO

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The fractional concentration of nitric oxide in exhaled air (F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO) is used as a biomarker of eosinophilic airway inflammation. F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO is increased in patients with asthma. The relationship between subjective asthma symptoms and airway inflammation is an important issue. We expected that the subjective asthma symptoms in women might be different from those in men. Therefore, we investigated the gender differences of asthma symptoms and F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO in a survey of asthma prevalence in university students.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The information about asthma symptoms was obtained from answers to the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) questionnaire, and F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO was measured by an offline method in 640 students who were informed of this study and consented to participate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of asthma symptoms on the basis of data obtained from 584 students (266 men and 318 women), ranging in age from 18 to 24 years, was analyzed. Wheeze, chest tightness, an attack of shortness of breath, or an attack of cough within the last year was observed in 13.2% of 584 students. When 38.0 ppb was used as the cut-off value of F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO to make the diagnosis of asthma, the sensitivity was 86.8% and the specificity was 74.0%. F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO was ≥ 38.0 ppb in 32.7% of students. F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO was higher in men than in women. The prevalence of asthma symptoms estimated by considering F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO was 7.2%; the prevalence was greater in men (9.4%) than women (5.3%). A F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO ≥ 38.0 ppb was common in students who reported wheeze, but not in students, especially women, who reported cough attacks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The prevalence of asthma symptoms in university students age 18 to 24 years in Japan was estimated to be 7.2% on the basis of F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO levels as well as subjective symptoms. Gender differences were observed in both F<smcaps>E</smcaps>NO levels and asthma symptoms reflecting the presence of eosinophilic airway inflammation.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>UMIN000003244</p