Patterns of shrub expansion in Alaskan arctic river corridors suggest phase transition

The open access fee for this work was funded through the Texas A&M University Open Access to Knowledge (OAK) Fund.Recent increases in deciduous shrub cover are a primary focus of terrestrial Arctic research. This study examined the historic spatial patterns of shrub expansion on the North Slope of Alaska to determine the potential for a phase transition from tundra to shrubland. We examined the historic variability of landscape-scale tall shrub expansion patterns on nine sites within river valleys in the Brooks Range and North Slope uplands (BRNS) between the 1950s and circa 2010 by calculating percent cover (PCTCOV), patch density (PADENS), patch size variability (CVSIZE), mean nearest neighbor distance (MEDIST) and the multi-scale information fractal dimension (dI) to assess spatial homogeneity for shrub cover. We also devised conceptual models for trends in these metrics before, during, and after a phase transition, and compared these to our results. By developing a regression equation between PCTCOV and dI and using universal critical dI values, we derived the PCTCOV required for a phase transition to occur. All nine sites exhibited increases in PCTCOV. Five of the nine sites exhibited an increase in PADENS, seven exhibited an increase in CVSIZE, and five exhibited a decrease in MEDIST. The dI values for each site exceeded the requirements necessary for a phase transition. Although fine-scale heterogeneity is still present, landscape-scale patterns suggest our study areas are either currently in a state of phase transition from tundra to shrubland or are progressing towards spatial homogeneity for shrubland. Our results indicate that the shrub tundra in the river valleys of the north slope of Alaska has reached a tipping point. If climate trends observed in recent decades continue, the shrub tundra will continue towards homogeneity with regard to the cover of tall shrubs

Configuring the neighbourhood effect in irregular cellular automata based models

Cellular automata (CA) models have been widely employed to simulate urban growth and land use change. In order to represent urban space more realistically, new approaches to CA models have explored the use of vector data instead of traditional regular grids. However, the use of irregular CA-based models brings new challenges as well as opportunities. The most strongly affected factor when using an irregular space is neighbourhood. Although neighbourhood definition in an irregular environment has been reported in the literature, the question of how to model the neighbourhood effect remains largely unexplored. In order to shed light on this question, this paper proposed the use of spatial metrics to characterise and measure the neighbourhood effect in irregular CA-based models. These metrics, originally developed for raster environments, namely the enrichment factor and the neighbourhood index, were adapted and applied in the irregular space employed by the model. Using the results of these metrics, distance-decay functions were calculated to reproduce the push-and-pull effect between the simulated land uses. The outcomes of a total of 55 simulations (five sets of different distance functions and eleven different neighbourhood definition distances) were compared with observed changes in the study area during the calibration period. Our results demonstrate that the proposed methodology improves the outcomes of the urban growth simulation model tested and could be applied to other irregular CA-based models

A stochastic model for landscape patterns of biodiversity

Many factors have been proposed to affect biodiversity patterns across landscapes, including patch area, patch isolation, edge distances, and matrix quality, but existing models emphasize only one or two of these factors at a time. Here we introduce a synthetic but simple individual-based model that generates realistic patterns of species richness and density as a function of landscape structure. In this model, we simulated the stochastic placement of home ranges in landscapes, thus combining features of existing random placement and mid-domain effect models. As such, the model allows investigation of whether and how geometric constraints on home range placement of individuals scale up to affect species abundance and richness in landscapes. The model encompassed a gradient of possible landscapes, from a strictly homogeneous landscape to an archipelago of discrete patches. The model incorporated only variation in home range size of individuals of different species, with a simple suitability index that controlled home range spread into areas of habitat and areas of inter-habitat matrix. Demographic details of birth, death, and migration, as well as effects of species interactions were not included. Nevertheless, this simple model generated realistic patterns of biodiversity, including species-area curves and increases in diversity and abundance with decreasing isolation and increasing distance from patch edges. Species-area slopes (z values) generated by the model fell within the range observed in empirical studies on both true islands and habitat patches. Isolation and edge effects were stronger when the matrix was unsuitable, and became progressively weaker as matrix suitability increased, again in accordance with many empirical studies. When applied to a real data set on the abundance of 20 small mammal species sampled in forest patches in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, the model predicted increases in abundance and richness with increasing patch size, consistent with the general pattern observed with field data. The ability of this simple model to reproduce realistic qualitative patterns of biodiversity suggests that such patterns may be driven, at least in part, by geometric constraints acting on the placement of individual ranges, which ultimately affect biodiversity patterns at the landscape level

Matrix type and landscape attributes modulate avian taxonomic and functional spillover across habitat boundaries in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Land use intensification drives biodiversity loss worldwide. In heterogeneous landscape mosaics, both overall forest area and anthropogenic matrix structure induce changes in biological communities in primary habitat remnants. However, community changes via cross‐habitat spillover processes along forest‐matrix interfaces remain poorly understood. Moreover, information on how landscape attributes affect spillover processes across habitat boundaries are embryonic. Here, we quantify avian α and β‐diversity (as proxies of spillover rates) across two dominant types of forest‐matrix interfaces (forest‐pasture and forest‐eucalyptus plantation) within the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot in southeast Brazil. We also assess the effects of anthropogenic matrix type and landscape attributes (forest cover, edge density and land‐use diversity) on bird taxonomic and functional β‐diversity across forest‐matrix boundaries. Alpha taxonomic richness was higher in forest edges than within both matrix types, but between matrix types, it was higher in pastures than in eucalyptus plantations. Although significantly higher in forests edges than in the adjacent eucalyptus, bird functional richness did not differ between forest edges and adjacent pastures. Community changes (β‐diversity) related to species and functional replacements (turnover component) were higher across forest‐pasture boundaries, whereas changes related to species and functional loss (nested component) were higher across forest‐eucalyptus boundaries. Forest edges adjacent to eucalyptus had significant higher species and functional replacements than forest edges adjacent to pastures. Forest cover negatively influenced functional β‐diversity across both forest‐pasture and forest‐eucalyptus interfaces. We show the importance of matrix type and the structure of surrounding landscapes (mainly forest cover) on rates of bird assemblage spillover across forest‐matrix boundaries, which has profound implications to biological fluxes, ecosystem functioning and land‐use management in human‐modified landscapes

Widespread forest vertebrate extinctions induced by a mega hydroelectric dam in lowland Amazonia

Mega hydropower projects in tropical forests pose a major emergent threat to terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity worldwide. Despite the unprecedented number of existing, underconstruction and planned hydroelectric dams in lowland tropical forests, long-term effects on biodiversity have yet to be evaluated. We examine how medium and large-bodied assemblages of terrestrial and arboreal vertebrates (including 35 mammal, bird and tortoise species) responded to the drastic 26-year post-isolation history of archipelagic alteration in landscape structure and habitat quality in a major hydroelectric reservoir of Central Amazonia. The Balbina Hydroelectric Dam inundated 3,129 km2 of primary forests, simultaneously isolating 3,546 land-bridge islands. We conducted intensive biodiversity surveys at 37 of those islands and three adjacent continuous forests using a combination of four survey techniques, and detected strong forest habitat area effects in explaining patterns of vertebrate extinction. Beyond clear area effects, edge-mediated surface fire disturbance was the most important additional driver of species loss, particularly in islands smaller than 10 ha. Based on species-area models, we predict that only 0.7% of all islands now harbor a species-rich vertebrate assemblage consisting of ≥80% of all species. We highlight the colossal erosion in vertebrate diversity driven by a man-made dam and show that the biodiversity impacts of mega dams in lowland tropical forest regions have been severely overlooked. The geopolitical strategy to deploy many more large hydropower infrastructure projects in regions like lowland Amazonia should be urgently reassessed, and we strongly advise that long-term biodiversity impacts should be explicitly included in pre-approval environmental impact assessments

Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum

Environmental drivers of distribution and reef development of the Mediterranean coral Cladocora caespitosa

Cladocora caespitosa is the only Mediterranean scleractinian similar to tropical reef-building corals. While this species is part of the recent fossil history of the Mediterranean Sea, it is currently considered endangered due to its decline during the last decades. Environmental factors affecting the distribution and persistence of extensive bank reefs of this endemic species across its whole geographic range are poorly understood. In this study, we examined the environmental response of C. caespitosa and its main types of assemblages using ecological niche modeling and ordination analysis. We also predicted other suitable areas for the occurrence of the species and assessed the conservation effectiveness of Mediterranean marine protected areas (MPAs) for this coral. We found that phosphate concentration and wave height were factors affecting both the occurrence of this versatile species and the distribution of its extensive bioconstructions in the Mediterranean Sea. A set of factors (diffuse attenuation coefficient, calcite and nitrate concentrations, mean wave height, sea surface temperature, and shape of the coast) likely act as environmental barriers preventing the species from expansion to the Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea. Uncertainties in our large-scale statistical results and departures from previous physiological and ecological studies are also discussed under an integrative perspective. This study reveals that Mediterranean MPAs encompass eight of the ten banks and 16 of the 21 beds of C. caespitosa. Preservation of water clarity by avoiding phosphate discharges may improve the protection of this emblematic species.Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [CTM2014-57949-R]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Impacts of 21st‐century climate change on montane habitat in the Madrean Sky Island Archipelago

Aim The Madrean Sky Island Archipelago is a North American biodiversity hotspot composed of similar to 60 isolated mountains that span the Cordilleran Gap between the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Madre Occidental. Characterized by discrete patches of high-elevation montane habitat, these "sky islands" serve as stepping stones across a "sea" of desert scrub/grassland. Over this coming century, the region is expected to shift towards a warmer and drier climate. We used species distribution modelling to predict how the spatial distribution of montane habitat will be affected by climate change. Location Madrean Sky Island Archipelago, south-west United States and north-west Mexico (latitude, 29-34 degrees N; longitude, 107-112 degrees W). Methods To approximate the current distribution of montane habitat, we built species distribution models for five high-elevation species (Ceanothus fendleri, Pinus strobiformis, Quercus gambelii, Sciurus aberti, and Synuchus dubius). The resulting models were projected under multiple climate change scenarios-four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) for each of three climate models (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-LR, and NorESM1-M)-to generate predicted distributions for the years 2050 and 2070. We performed chi-squared tests to detect any future changes to total montane habitat area, and Conover-Iman tests to evaluate isolation among the discrete montane habitat patches. Results While the climate models differ with respect to their predictions as to how severe the effects of future climate change will be, they all agree that by as early as year 2050, there will be significant montane habitat loss and increased montane habitat patch isolation across the Madrean Archipelago region under a worst-case climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Main conclusions Our results suggest that under 21st-century climate change, the Madrean Sky Islands will become increasingly isolated due to montane habitat loss. This may affect their ability to serve as stepping stones and have negative implications for the region's biodiversity.University of Arizona Center for Insect ScienceOpen access articleThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Effects of coastal urbanization on salt-marsh faunal assemblages in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Author Posting. © American Fisheries Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Fisheries Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management, and Ecosystem Science 6 (2014): 89-107, doi:10.1080/19425120.2014.893467.Coastal landscapes in the northern Gulf of Mexico, specifically the Mississippi coast, have undergone rapid urbanization that may impact the suitability of salt-marsh ecosystems for maintaining and regulating estuarine faunal communities. We used a landscape ecology approach to quantify the composition and configuration of salt-marsh habitats and developed surfaces at multiple spatial scales surrounding three small, first-order salt-marsh tidal creeks arrayed along a gradient of urbanization in two river-dominated estuaries. From May 3 to June 4, 2010, nekton and macroinfauna were collected weekly at all six sites. Due to the greater abundance of grass shrimp Palaemonetes spp., brown shrimp Farfantepenaeus aztecus, blue crab Callinectes sapidus, Gulf Menhaden Brevoortia patronus, and Spot Leiostomus xanthurus, tidal creeks in intact natural (IN) salt-marsh landscapes supported a nekton assemblage that was significantly different from those in partially urbanized (PU) or completely urbanized (CU) salt-marsh landscapes. However, PU landscapes still supported an abundant nekton assemblage. In addition, the results illustrated a linkage between life history traits and landscape characteristics. Resident and transient nekton species that have specific habitat requirements are more likely to be impacted in urbanized landscapes than more mobile species that are able to exploit multiple habitats. Patterns were less clear for macroinfaunal assemblages, although they were comparatively less abundant in CU salt-marsh landscapes than in either IN or PU landscapes. The low abundance or absence of several macroinfaunal taxa in CU landscapes may be viewed as an additional indicator of poor habitat quality for nekton. The observed patterns also suggested that benthic sediments in the CU salt-marsh landscapes were altered in comparison with IN or PU landscapes. The amount of developed shoreline and various metrics related to salt marsh fragmentation were important drivers of observed patterns in nekton and macroinfaunal assemblages