Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference following the introduction of PCI operations involving stents.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is often knowledge and sometimes quantitative evidence of the expected impacts of changes in surgical practice and procedure effectiveness and these may be used to improve forecasts of future requirements for CARPs in a population.</p

Accreting Neutron Stars in Low-Mass X-Ray Binary Systems

Using the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RossiXTE), astronomers have discovered that disk-accreting neutron stars with weak magnetic fields produce three distinct types of high-frequency X-ray oscillations. These oscillations are powered by release of the binding energy of matter falling into the strong gravitational field of the star or by the sudden nuclear burning of matter that has accumulated in the outermost layers of the star. The frequencies of the oscillations reflect the orbital frequencies of gas deep in the gravitational field of the star and/or the spin frequency of the star. These oscillations can therefore be used to explore fundamental physics, such as strong-field gravity and the properties of matter under extreme conditions, and important astrophysical questions, such as the formation and evolution of millisecond pulsars. Observations using RossiXTE have shown that some two dozen neutron stars in low-mass X-ray binary systems have the spin rates and magnetic fields required to become millisecond radio-emitting pulsars when accretion ceases, but that few have spin rates above about 600 Hz. The properties of these stars show that the paucity of spin rates greater than 600 Hz is due in part to the magnetic braking component of the accretion torque and to the limited amount of angular momentum that can be accreted in such systems. Further study will show whether braking by gravitational radiation is also a factor. Analysis of the kilohertz oscillations has provided the first evidence for the existence of the innermost stable circular orbit around dense relativistic stars that is predicted by strong-field general relativity. It has also greatly narrowed the possible descriptions of ultradense matter.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures, updated list of sources and references, to appear in "Short-period Binary Stars: Observation, Analyses, and Results", eds. E.F. Milone, D.A. Leahy, and D. Hobill (Dordrecht: Springer, http://www.springerlink.com

SALL4 Expression in Gonocytes and Spermatogonial Clones of Postnatal Mouse Testes

The spermatogenic lineage is established after birth when gonocytes migrate to the basement membrane of seminiferous tubules and give rise to spermatogonial stem cells (SSC). In adults, SSCs reside within the population of undifferentiated spermatogonia (Aundiff) that expands clonally from single cells (Asingle) to form pairs (Apaired) and chains of 4, 8 and 16 Aaligned spermatogonia. Although stem cell activity is thought to reside in the population of Asingle spermatogonia, new research suggests that clone size alone does not define the stem cell pool. The mechanisms that regulate self-renewal and differentiation fate decisions are poorly understood due to limited availability of experimental tools that distinguish the products of those fate decisions. The pluripotency factor SALL4 (sal-like protein 4) is implicated in stem cell maintenance and patterning in many organs during embryonic development, but expression becomes restricted to the gonads after birth. We analyzed the expression of SALL4 in the mouse testis during the first weeks after birth and in adult seminiferous tubules. In newborn mice, the isoform SALL4B is expressed in quiescent gonocytes at postnatal day 0 (PND0) and SALL4A is upregulated at PND7 when gonocytes have colonized the basement membrane and given rise to spermatogonia. During steady-state spermatogenesis in adult testes, SALL4 expression overlapped substantially with PLZF and LIN28 in Asingle, Apaired and Aaligned spermatogonia and therefore appears to be a marker of undifferentiated spermatogonia in mice. In contrast, co-expression of SALL4 with GFRα1 and cKIT identified distinct subpopulations of Aundiff in all clone sizes that might provide clues about SSC regulation. Collectively, these results indicate that 1) SALL4 isoforms are differentially expressed at the initiation of spermatogenesis, 2) SALL4 is expressed in undifferentiated spermatogonia in adult testes and 3) SALL4 co-staining with GFRα1 and cKIT reveals distinct subpopulations of Aundiff spermatogonia that merit further investigation. © 2013 Gassei, Orwig

Solve Antarctica’s sea-ice puzzle

John Turner and Josefino Comiso call for a coordinated push to crack the baffling rise and fall of sea ice around Antarctica

Control of disseminated intravascular coagulation in Klippel-Trenaunay-Weber syndrome using enoxaparin and recombinant activated factor VIIa: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Vascular malformation is associated with coagulopathies, especially when hemostasis is challenged.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We present the case of an 11-year-old Hispanic girl with Klippel-Trenaunay-Weber syndrome that developed disseminated intravascular coagulation after minor surgery, which was controlled by blood product transfusions and enoxaparin to address an ongoing consumptive coagulopathy. The patient, however, developed bacteremia and liver trauma that resulted in severe bleeding. To the best of our knowledge, we report here the first known instance of administering recombinant coagulation factor VIIa to control acute bleeding in a patient with Klippel-Trenaunay-Weber syndrome.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This case illustrates the concept of enoxaparin maintenance to suppress an ongoing consumptive coagulopathy and the use of recombinant coagulation factor VIIa to control its potentially fatal severe bleeding episodes.</p

Using a Markov simulation model to assess the impact of changing trends in coronary heart disease incidence on requirements for coronary artery revascularization procedures in Western Australia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The population incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) has been declining in Australia and many other countries. This decline has been due to reduced population levels of risk factors for CHD and improved medical care for those at higher risk of CHD. However, there are signs that there may be a slowing down or even reversal in the decline of CHD incidence due to the 'obesity epidemic' and other factors and this will have implications for the requirements for surgical treatments for those with CHD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a validated Markov simulation model applied to the population of Western Australia, different CHD incidence trend scenarios were developed to explore the effect of changing CHD incidence on requirements for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI), together known as coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The most dominant component of CHD incidence is the risk of CHD hospital admission for those with no history of CHD and if this risk leveled off and the trends in all other risks continued unchanged, then the projected numbers of CABGs and PCIs are only minimally changed. Further, the changes in the projected numbers remained small even when this risk was increased by 20 percent (although it is an unlikely scenario). However, when the other CHD incidence components that had also been declining, namely, the risk of CABG and that of CHD death for those with no history of CHD, were also projected to level off as these were declining in 1998-2000 and the risk of PCI for those with no history of CHD (which was already increasing) was projected to further increase by 5 percent, it had a substantial effect on the projected numbers of CARPs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There needs to be dramatic changes to several CHD incidence components before it has a substantial impact on the projected requirements for CARPs. Continued monitoring of CHD incidence and also the mix of initial presentation of CHD incidence is required in order to understand changes to future CARP requirements.</p

Natriuretic peptide vs. clinical information for diagnosis of left ventricular systolic dysfunction in primary care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Screening of primary care patients at risk for left ventricular systolic dysfunction by a simple blood-test might reduce referral rates for echocardiography. Whether or not natriuretic peptide testing is a useful and cost-effective diagnostic instrument in primary care settings, however, is still a matter of debate.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, clinical information, and echocardiographic data of left ventricular systolic function were collected in 542 family practice patients with at least one cardiovascular risk factor. We determined the diagnostic power of the NT-proBNP assessment in ruling out left ventricular systolic dysfunction and compared it to a risk score derived from a logistic regression model of easily acquired clinical information.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>23 of 542 patients showed left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Both NT-proBNP and the clinical risk score consisting of dyspnea at exertion and ankle swelling, coronary artery disease and diuretic treatment showed excellent diagnostic power for ruling out left ventricular systolic dysfunction. AUC of NT-proBNP was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.92) with a sensitivity of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.98) and a specificity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.50). AUC of the clinical risk score was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.91) with a sensitivity of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.98) and a specificity of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.67). 148 misclassifications using NT-proBNP and 55 using the clinical risk score revealed a significant difference (McNemar test; p < 0.001) that was based on the higher specificity of the clinical risk score.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The evaluation of clinical information is at least as effective as NT-proBNP testing in ruling out left ventricular systolic dysfunction in family practice patients at risk. If these results are confirmed in larger cohorts and in different samples, family physicians should be encouraged to rely on the diagnostic power of the clinical information from their patients.</p

Revival of the magnetar PSR J1622-4950: observations with MeerKAT, Parkes, XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR

New radio (MeerKAT and Parkes) and X-ray (XMM-Newton, Swift, Chandra, and NuSTAR) observations of PSR J1622-4950 indicate that the magnetar, in a quiescent state since at least early 2015, reactivated between 2017 March 19 and April 5. The radio flux density, while variable, is approximately 100x larger than during its dormant state. The X-ray flux one month after reactivation was at least 800x larger than during quiescence, and has been decaying exponentially on a 111+/-19 day timescale. This high-flux state, together with a radio-derived rotational ephemeris, enabled for the first time the detection of X-ray pulsations for this magnetar. At 5%, the 0.3-6 keV pulsed fraction is comparable to the smallest observed for magnetars. The overall pulsar geometry inferred from polarized radio emission appears to be broadly consistent with that determined 6-8 years earlier. However, rotating vector model fits suggest that we are now seeing radio emission from a different location in the magnetosphere than previously. This indicates a novel way in which radio emission from magnetars can differ from that of ordinary pulsars. The torque on the neutron star is varying rapidly and unsteadily, as is common for magnetars following outburst, having changed by a factor of 7 within six months of reactivation.Comment: Published in ApJ (2018 April 5); 13 pages, 4 figure

Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean.

Episodic anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, or marine heatwaves (MHWs), amplify ocean warming effects and may lead to severe impacts on marine ecosystems. MHW-induced coral bleaching events have been observed frequently in recent decades in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO), a region traditionally regarded to have resilience to global warming. In this study, we assess the contribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to MHWs across the mostly understudied reefs in the SEIO. We find that in extended summer months, the MHWs at tropical and subtropical reefs (divided at ~20°S) are driven by opposite ENSO polarities: MHWs are more likely to occur at the tropical reefs during eastern Pacific El Niño, driven by enhanced solar radiation and weaker Australian Monsoon, some likely alleviated by positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and at the subtropical reefs during central Pacific La Niña, mainly caused by increased horizontal heat transport, and in some cases reinforced by local air-sea interactions. Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJO) also modulate the MHW occurrences. Projected future increases in ENSO and MJO intensity with greenhouse warming will enhance thermal stress across the SEIO. Implementing forecasting systems of MHWs can be used to anticipate future coral bleaching patterns and prepare management responses