Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong. METHODS: We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients' age and the time from onset to admission. FINDINGS: After the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6.4 days (95% CI 5.2-7.7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13.2% (9.8-16.8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43.3% (35.2-52.4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric gamma distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6.8% (4.0-9.6) and 55.0% (45.3-64.7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic. INTERPRETATION: Patients' age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine

Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions.

We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters-initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs)-and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission

Impact of generic alendronate cost on the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening and treatment

Introduction: Since alendronate became available in generic form in the Unites States in 2008, its price has been decreasing. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of alendronate cost on the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening and treatment in postmenopausal women. Methods: Microsimulation cost-effectiveness model of osteoporosis screening and treatment for U.S. women age 65 and older. We assumed screening initiation at age 65 with central dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and alendronate treatment for individuals with osteoporosis; with a comparator of "no screening" and treatment only after fracture occurrence. We evaluated annual alendronate costs of $20 through$800; outcome measures included fractures; nursing home admission; medication adverse events; death; costs; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2010 U.S. dollars per QALY gained. A lifetime time horizon was used, and direct costs were included. Base-case and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Base-case analysis results showed that at annual alendronate costs of $200 or less, osteoporosis screening followed by treatment was cost-saving, resulting in lower total costs than no screening as well as more QALYs (10.6 additional quality-adjusted life-days). When assuming alendronate costs of$400 through $800, screening and treatment resulted in greater lifetime costs than no screening but was highly cost-effective, with ICERs ranging from$714 per QALY gained through $13,902 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis screening followed by alendronate treatment was robust to joint input parameter estimate variation at a willingness-to-pay threshold of$50,000/QALY at all alendronate costs evaluated. Conclusions: Osteoporosis screening followed by alendronate treatment is effective and highly cost-effective for postmenopausal women across a range of alendronate costs, and may be cost-saving at annual alendronate costs of $200 or less. © 2012 Nayak et al

Markedly Divergent Tree Assemblage Responses to Tropical Forest Loss and Fragmentation across a Strong Seasonality Gradient

We examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the structure and composition of tree assemblages within three seasonal and aseasonal forest types of southern Brazil, including evergreen, Araucaria, and deciduous forests. We sampled three southernmost Atlantic Forest landscapes, including the largest continuous forest protected areas within each forest type. Tree assemblages in each forest type were sampled within 10 plots of 0.1 ha in both continuous forests and 10 adjacent forest fragments. All trees within each plot were assigned to trait categories describing their regeneration strategy, vertical stratification, seed-dispersal mode, seed size, and wood density. We detected differences among both forest types and landscape contexts in terms of overall tree species richness, and the density and species richness of different functional groups in terms of regeneration strategy, seed dispersal mode and woody density. Overall, evergreen forest fragments exhibited the largest deviations from continuous forest plots in assemblage structure. Evergreen, Araucaria and deciduous forests diverge in the functional composition of tree floras, particularly in relation to regeneration strategy and stress tolerance. By supporting a more diversified light-demanding and stress-tolerant flora with reduced richness and abundance of shade-tolerant, old-growth species, both deciduous and Araucaria forest tree assemblages are more intrinsically resilient to contemporary human-disturbances, including fragmentation-induced edge effects, in terms of species erosion and functional shifts. We suggest that these intrinsic differences in the direction and magnitude of responses to changes in landscape structure between forest types should guide a wide range of conservation strategies in restoring fragmented tropical forest landscapes worldwide

FAK acts as a suppressor of RTK-MAP kinase signalling in Drosophila melanogaster epithelia and human cancer cells

Receptor Tyrosine Kinases (RTKs) and Focal Adhesion Kinase (FAK) regulate multiple signalling pathways, including mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase pathway. FAK interacts with several RTKs but little is known about how FAK regulates their downstream signalling. Here we investigated how FAK regulates signalling resulting from the overexpression of the RTKs RET and EGFR. FAK suppressed RTKs signalling in Drosophila melanogaster epithelia by impairing MAPK pathway. This regulation was also observed in MDA-MB-231 human breast cancer cells, suggesting it is a conserved phenomenon in humans. Mechanistically, FAK reduced receptor recycling into the plasma membrane, which resulted in lower MAPK activation. Conversely, increasing the membrane pool of the receptor increased MAPK pathway signalling. FAK is widely considered as a therapeutic target in cancer biology; however, it also has tumour suppressor properties in some contexts. Therefore, the FAK-mediated negative regulation of RTK/MAPK signalling described here may have potential implications in the designing of therapy strategies for RTK-driven tumours

Factors in AIDS dementia complex trial design: Results and lessons from the abacavir trial

OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of adding abacavir (Ziagen, ABC) to optimal stable background antiretroviral therapy (SBG) to AIDS dementia complex (ADC) patients and address trial design. DESIGN: Phase III randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Tertiary outpatient clinics. PARTICIPANTS: ADC patients on SBG for ≥8 wk. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomized to ABC or matched placebo for 12 wk. OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the change in the summary neuropsychological Z score (NPZ). Secondary measures were HIV RNA and the immune activation markers β-2 microglobulin, soluble tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor 2, and quinolinic acid. RESULTS: 105 participants were enrolled. The median change in NPZ at week 12 was +0.76 for the ABC + SBG and +0.63 for the SBG groups (p = 0.735). The lack of efficacy was unlikely related to possible limited antiviral efficacy of ABC: at week 12 more ABC than placebo participants had plasma HIV RNA ≤400 copies/mL (p = 0.002). There were, however, other factors. Two thirds of patients were subsequently found to have had baseline resistance to ABC. Second, there was an unanticipated beneficial effect of SBG that extended beyond 8 wk to 5 mo, thereby rendering some of the patients at baseline unstable. Third, there was an unexpectedly large variability in neuropsychological performance that underpowered the study. Fourth, there was a relative lack of activity of ADC: 56% of all patients had baseline cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) HIV-1 RNA <100 copies/mL and 83% had CSF β-2 microglobulin <3 nmol/L at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of ABC to SBG for ADC patients was not efficacious, possibly because of the inefficacy of ABC per se, baseline drug resistance, prolonged benefit from existing therapy, difficulties with sample size calculations, and lack of disease activity. Assessment of these trial design factors is critical in the design of future ADC trials

Mapping the disease-specific LupusQoL to the SF-6D

Purpose To derive a mapping algorithm to predict SF-6D utility scores from the non-preference-based LupusQoL and test the performance of the developed algorithm on a separate independent validation data set. Method LupusQoL and SF-6D data were collected from 320 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) attending routine rheumatology outpatient appointments at seven centres in the UK. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to estimate models of increasing complexity in order to predict individuals’ SF-6D utility scores from their responses to the LupusQoL questionnaire. Model performance was judged on predictive ability through the size and pattern of prediction errors generated. The performance of the selected model was externally validated on an independent data set containing 113 female SLE patients who had again completed both the LupusQoL and SF-36 questionnaires. Results Four of the eight LupusQoL domains (physical health, pain, emotional health, and fatigue) were selected as dependent variables in the final model. Overall model fit was good, with R2 0.7219, MAE 0.0557, and RMSE 0.0706 when applied to the estimation data set, and R2 0.7431, MAE 0.0528, and RMSE 0.0663 when applied to the validation sample. Conclusion This study provides a method by which health state utility values can be estimated from patient responses to the non-preference-based LupusQoL, generalisable beyond the data set upon which it was estimated. Despite concerns over the use of OLS to develop mapping algorithms, we find this method to be suitable in this case due to the normality of the SF-6D data

Lignin biomarkers as tracers of mercury sources in lakes water column

This study presents the role of specific terrigenous organic compounds as important vectors of mercury (Hg) transported from watersheds to lakes of the Canadian boreal forest. In order to differentiate the autochthonous from the allochthonous organic matter (OM), lignin derived biomarker signatures [Lambda, S/V, C/V, P/(V ? S), 3,5-Bd/V and (Ad/Al)v] were used. Since lignin is exclusively produced by terrigenous plants, this approach can give a non equivocal picture of the watershed inputs to the lakes. Moreover, it allows a characterization of the source of OM and its state of degradation. The water column of six lakes from the Canadian Shield was sampled monthly between June and September 2005. Lake total dissolved Hg concentrations and Lambda were positively correlated, meaning that Hg and ligneous inputs are linked (dissolved OM r2 = 0.62, p\0.0001; particulate OM r2 = 0.76, p\0.0001). Ratios of P/(V ? S) and 3,5-Bd/V from both dissolved OM and particulate OM of the water column suggest an inverse relationship between the progressive state of pedogenesis and maturation of the OM in soil before entering the lake, and the Hg concentrations in the water column. No relation was found between Hg levels in the lakes and the watershed flora composition—angiosperm versus gymnosperm or woody versus non-woody compounds. This study has significant implications for watershed management of ecosystems since limiting fresh terrestrial OM inputs should reduce Hg inputs to the aquatic systems. This is particularly the case for largescale land-use impacts, such as deforestation, agriculture and urbanization, associated to large quantities of soil OM being transferred to aquatic systems