An assessment of areal coverage of severe weather parameters for severe weather outbreak diagnosis

The areal extent of severeweather parameters favorable for significant severeweather is evaluated as a means of identifying major severe weather outbreaks. The first areal coverage method uses kernel density estimation (KDE) to identify severeweather outbreak locations. Aselected severeweather parameter value is computed at each grid point within the region identified by KDE. The average, median, or sum value is used to diagnose the event's severity. The second areal coverage method finds the largest contiguous region where a severe weather parameter exceeds a specified threshold that intersects theKDEregion. The severeweather parameter values at grid points within the parameter exceedance region are computed, with the average, median, or sumvalue used to diagnose the event's severity. A total of 4057 severe weather outbreaks from 1979 to 2008 are analyzed. An event is considered a major outbreak if it exceeds a selected ranking index score (developed in previous work), and is a minor event otherwise. The areal coverage method is also compared to Storm Prediction Center (SPC) day-1 convective outlooks from 2003 to 2008. Comparisons of the SPC forecasts and areal coverage diagnoses indicate the areal coverage methods have similar skill to SPC convective outlooks in discriminating major and minor severe weather outbreaks. Despite a seemingly large sample size, the rare-events nature of the dataset leads to sample size sensitivities. Nevertheless, the findings of this study suggest that areal coverage should be tested in a forecasting environment as a means of providing guidance in future outbreak scenarios. © 2012 American Meteorological Society

Synoptic composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks

Tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks occur within the United States and elsewhere around the world each year with devastating effect. However, few studies have considered the physical differences between these two outbreak types. To address this issue, synoptic-scale pattern composites of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks are formulated over North America using a rotated principal component analysis (RPCA). A cluster analysis of the RPC loadings group similar outbreak events, and the resulting map types represent an idealized composite of the constituent cases in each cluster. These composites are used to initialize aWeather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulation of each hypothetical composite outbreak type in an effort to determine the WRF's capability to distinguish the outbreak type each composite represents. Synoptic-scale pattern analyses of the composites reveal strikingly different characteristics within each outbreak type, particularly in the wind fields. The tornado outbreak composites reveal a strong low- and midlevel cyclone over the eastern Rockies, which is likely responsible for the observed surface low pressure system in the plains. Composite soundings from the hypothetical outbreak centroids reveal significantly greater bulk shear and storm-relative environmental helicity values in the tornado outbreak environment, whereas instability fields are similar between the two outbreak types. The WRF simulations of the map types confirm results observed in the composite soundings. © 2012 American Meteorological Society

Computable randomness is about more than probabilities

We introduce a notion of computable randomness for infinite sequences that generalises the classical version in two important ways. First, our definition of computable randomness is associated with imprecise probability models, in the sense that we consider lower expectations (or sets of probabilities) instead of classical 'precise' probabilities. Secondly, instead of binary sequences, we consider sequences whose elements take values in some finite sample space. Interestingly, we find that every sequence is computably random with respect to at least one lower expectation, and that lower expectations that are more informative have fewer computably random sequences. This leads to the intriguing question whether every sequence is computably random with respect to a unique most informative lower expectation. We study this question in some detail and provide a partial answer

The Role of Individual Variables, Organizational Variables and Moral Intensity Dimensions in Libyan Management Accountants’ Ethical Decision Making

This study investigates the association of a broad set of variables with the ethical decision making of management accountants in Libya. Adopting a cross-sectional methodology, a questionnaire including four different ethical scenarios was used to gather data from 229 participants. For each scenario, ethical decision making was examined in terms of the recognition, judgment and intention stages of Rest’s model. A significant relationship was found between ethical recognition and ethical judgment and also between ethical judgment and ethical intention, but ethical recognition did not significantly predict ethical intention—thus providing support for Rest’s model. Organizational variables, age and educational level yielded few significant results. The lack of significance for codes of ethics might reflect their relative lack of development in Libya, in which case Libyan companies should pay attention to their content and how they are supported, especially in the light of the under-development of the accounting profession in Libya. Few significant results were also found for gender, but where they were found, males showed more ethical characteristics than females. This unusual result reinforces the dangers of gender stereotyping in business. Personal moral philosophy and moral intensity dimensions were generally found to be significant predictors of the three stages of ethical decision making studied. One implication of this is to give more attention to ethics in accounting education, making the connections between accounting practice and (in Libya) Islam. Overall, this study not only adds to the available empirical evidence on factors affecting ethical decision making, notably examining three stages of Rest’s model, but also offers rare insights into the ethical views of practising management accountants and provides a benchmark for future studies of ethical decision making in Muslim majority countries and other parts of the developing world

Computable randomness is about more than probabilities

We introduce a notion of computable randomness for infinite sequences that generalises the classical version in two important ways. First, our definition of computable randomness is associated with imprecise probability models, in the sense that we consider lower expectations (or sets of probabilities) instead of classical 'precise' probabilities. Secondly, instead of binary sequences, we consider sequences whose elements take values in some finite sample space. Interestingly, we find that every sequence is computably random with respect to at least one lower expectation, and that lower expectations that are more informative have fewer computably random sequences. This leads to the intriguing question whether every sequence is computably random with respect to a unique most informative lower expectation. We study this question in some detail and provide a partial answer

Simvastatin decreases the level of heparin-binding protein in patients with acute lung injury

Background: Heparin-binding protein is released by neutrophils during inflammation and disrupts the integrity of the alveolar and capillary endothelial barrier implicated in the development of acute lung injury and systemic organ failure. We sought to investigate whether oral administration of simvastatin to patients with acute lung injury reduces plasma heparin-binding protein levels and improves intensive care unit outcome. Methods: Blood samples were collected from patients with acute lung injury with 48 h of onset of acute lung injury (day 0), day 3, and day 7. Patients were given placebo or 80 mg simvastatin for up to 14 days. Plasma heparin-binding protein levels from patients with acute lung injury and healthy volunteers were measured by ELISA. Results: Levels of plasma heparin-binding protein were significantly higher in patients with acute lung injury than healthy volunteers on day 0 (p = 0.011). Simvastatin 80 mg administered enterally for 14 days reduced plasma level of heparin-binding protein in patients. Reduced heparin-binding protein was associated with improved intensive care unit survival. Conclusions: A reduction in heparin-binding protein with simvastatin is a potential mechanism by which the statin may modify outcome from acute lung injury

Comparative Analysis of Cervical Spine Management in a Subset of Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Cases Using Computer Simulation

BACKGROUND: No randomized control trial to date has studied the use of cervical spine management strategies in cases of severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) at risk for cervical spine instability solely due to damaged ligaments. A computer algorithm is used to decide between four cervical spine management strategies. A model assumption is that the emergency room evaluation shows no spinal deficit and a computerized tomogram of the cervical spine excludes the possibility of fracture of cervical vertebrae. The study's goal is to determine cervical spine management strategies that maximize brain injury functional survival while minimizing quadriplegia. METHODS/FINDINGS: The severity of TBI is categorized as unstable, high risk and stable based on intracranial hypertension, hypoxemia, hypotension, early ventilator associated pneumonia, admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and age. Complications resulting from cervical spine management are simulated using three decision trees. Each case starts with an amount of primary and secondary brain injury and ends as a functional survivor, severely brain injured, quadriplegic or dead. Cervical spine instability is studied with one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses providing rankings of cervical spine management strategies for probabilities of management complications based on QALYs. Early collar removal received more QALYs than the alternative strategies in most arrangements of these comparisons. A limitation of the model is the absence of testing against an independent data set. CONCLUSIONS: When clinical logic and components of cervical spine management are systematically altered, changes that improve health outcomes are identified. In the absence of controlled clinical studies, the results of this comparative computer assessment show that early collar removal is preferred over a wide range of realistic inputs for this subset of traumatic brain injury. Future research is needed on identifying factors in projecting awakening from coma and the role of delirium in these cases

Search for rare quark-annihilation decays, B --> Ds(*) Phi

We report on searches for B- --> Ds- Phi and B- --> Ds*- Phi. In the context of the Standard Model, these decays are expected to be highly suppressed since they proceed through annihilation of the b and u-bar quarks in the B- meson. Our results are based on 234 million Upsilon(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected with the BABAR detector at SLAC. We find no evidence for these decays, and we set Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions BF(B- --> Ds- Phi) Ds*- Phi)<1.2x10^(-5). These results are consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

A randomized clinical trial comparing hydrocolloid, phenytoin and simple dressings for the treatment of pressure ulcers [ISRCTN33429693]

BACKGROUND: Pressure sores are important and common complications of spinal cord injury. Many preventive and therapeutic approaches have been tried and new trials are evolving. One relatively recent method is application of a hydrocolloid dressing (HD). In this study we compared the therapeutic effects of HD on pressure ulcer healing with two other topical applications, phenytoin cream (PC) and simple dressing (SD). METHODS: Ninety-one stage I and stage II pressure ulcers of 83 paraplegic male victims of the Iran-Iraq war were randomly allocated to three treatment groups. Mean age and weight of the participants were 36.64 ± 6.04 years and 61.12 ± 5.08 kg, respectively. All the patients were managed in long term care units or in their homes for 8 weeks by a team of general practitioners and nurses, and the ulcer status was recorded as "Complete healing", "Partial healing", "Without improvement" and "Worsening". RESULTS: Complete healing of ulcers, regardless of location and stage, was better in the HD group than the PC [23/31(74.19%) vs 12/30(40%); difference: 34.19%, 95% CI = 10.85–57.52, (P < 0.01)] or the SD [23/31(74.19%) vs 8/30(26.66%); difference: 47.53%, 95% CI = 25.45–69.61, (P < 0.005)] groups. Complete healing of stage I ulcers in the HD group [11/13(85%)] was better than in the SD [5/11(45%); difference: 40%, 95% CI = 4.7–75.22, (P < 0.05)] or PC [2/9 (22%); difference: 63%, 95% CI = 29.69–96.3, (P < 0.005)] groups. Complete healing of stage II ulcer in the HD group [12/18 (67%)] was better than in the SD group [3/19(16%); difference: 51%, 95% CI = 23.73–78.26, (P < 0.005)], but not significantly different from the PC group [10/21 (48%); difference: 19%, 95% CI = -11.47–49.47, (P > 0.05)]. We performed a second analysis considering only one ulcer per patient (i.e. 83 ulcers in 83 patients). This "per patient" analysis showed that complete ulcer healing in the HD group was better than in the PC [20/28(71.4%) vs 11/28 (39.3%); difference: 32.1%, 95% CI = 7.4–56.7, (P < 0.01)] or SD [20/28(71.4%) vs 8/27 (29.6%); difference: 41.8%, 95% CI = 17.7–65.8, (P < 0.005)] groups. CONCLUSION: We deduced that HD is the most effective method investigated for treating stage I and II pressure ulcers in young paraplegic men