Seasonal forecasts of the rainy season onset over Africa: Preliminary results from the FOCUS-Africa project

Precipitation seasonality is the main factor controlling vegetation phenology in many tropical and subtropical regions. Anticipating the rain onset is of paramount importance for field preparation and seeding. This is of particular importance in various African countries that rely on agriculture as a main source of food, subsistence and income. In such countries, skilful and accurate onset forecasts could also inform early warning and early actions, such as aids logistics planning, for food security. Here, we assess the skill of the seasonal forecast data provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service in predicting the rain onset over Africa. The skill, i.e. the accuracy of the seasonal forecasts simulation ensemble compared to the climatology, is computed in a probabilistic fashion by accounting for the frequencies of normal, early and late onsets predicted by the forecast system. We compute the skill using the hindcasts (forecast simulations conducted for the past) starting at the beginning of each month in the period 1993–2016. We detect the onset timing of the rainy season using a non-parametric method that accounts for double seasonality and is suitable for the specific time-window of the seasonal forecast simulations. We find positive skills in some key African agricultural regions some months in advance. Overall, the multi-model ensemble outperforms any individual model ensemble. We provide targeted recommendations to develop a useful climate service for the agricultural sector in Africa

Toward a Comprehensive and Integrated Strategy of the European Marine Research Infrastructures for Ocean Observations

Research Infrastructures (RIs) are large-scale facilities encompassing instruments, resources, data and services used by the scientific community to conduct high-level research in their respective fields. The development and integration of marine environmental RIs as European Research Vessel Operators [ERVO] (2020) is the response of the European Commission (EC) to global marine challenges through research, technological development and innovation. These infrastructures (EMSO ERIC, Euro-Argo ERIC, ICOS-ERIC Marine, LifeWatch ERIC, and EMBRC-ERIC) include specialized vessels, fixed-point monitoring systems, Lagrangian floats, test facilities, genomics observatories, bio-sensing, and Virtual Research Environments (VREs), among others. Marine ecosystems are vital for life on Earth. Global climate change is progressing rapidly, and geo-hazards, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis, cause large losses of human life and have massive worldwide socio-economic impacts. Enhancing our marine environmental monitoring and prediction capabilities will increase our ability to respond adequately to major challenges and efficiently. Collaboration among European marine RIs aligns with and has contributed to the OceanObs’19 Conference statement and the objectives of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030). This collaboration actively participates and supports concrete actions to increase the quality and quantity of more integrated and sustained observations in the ocean worldwide. From an innovation perspective, the next decade will increasingly count on marine RIs to support the development of new technologies and their validation in the field, increasing market uptake and produce a shift in observing capabilities and strategies.Peer reviewe