AD-DICE: an implementation of adaptation in the DICE model

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) have helped us over the past decade to understand the interactions between the environment and the economy in the context of climate change. Although it has also long been recognized that adaptation is a powerful and necessary tool to combat the adverse effects of climate change, most IAMS have not explicitly included the option of adaptation in combating climate change. This paper adds to the IAM and climate change literature by explicitly including adaptation in an IAM, thereby making the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation visible. Specifically, a theoretical framework is created and used to implement adaptation as a decision variable into the DICE model. We use our new AD-DICE model to derive the adaptation cost functions implicit in the DICE model. In our set-up, adaptation and mitigation decisions are separable and AD-DICE can mimic DICE when adaptation is optimal. We find that our specification of the adaptation costs is robust with respect to the mitigation policy scenarios and parameter values. Our numerical results show that adaptation is a powerful option to combat climate change, as it reduces most of the potential costs of climate change in earlier periods, while mitigation does so in later period

Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH[subscript 4]-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH[subscript 4]-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH[subscript 4] leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1–2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m[superscript −2] stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2–3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH[subscript 4] emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.New England University Transportation Center (DOT Grant DTRT07-G-0001

On the potential economic costs of cutting carbon dioxide emissions in Portugal

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities on economic activity in Portugal. We find that energy consumption has a significant impact on macroeconomic activity. In fact, a 1 ton of oil equivalent permanent reduction in aggregate energy consumption reduces output in the long term by €6,340. More importantly, and since carbon dioxide emissions are linearly related to the amounts of fuel consumed, our results allow us to estimate the costs of reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. We estimate that a uniform standard for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities would lead to a marginal abatement cost of €95.74 per ton of carbon dioxide. This is a first rough estimate of the potential economic costs of policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At this level one may conclude that uniform, across the board reductions in carbon emissions would have a clear negative effect on economic activity. Hence, at the aggregate level there is clear evidence for a trade-off between economic performance and a reduction in carbon emissions. This opens the door to the investigation of the scope for policy to minimize the costs of environmental policy and regulation.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Determinants of participation in colonoscopic screening by siblings of colorectal cancer patients in France

International audienceBACKGROUND: Targeted colonosocopic screening is recommended for first-degree relatives of colorectal cancer patients diagnosed before the age of 60 and offers the possibility of reducing morbidity and mortality, but participation remains too low. The objective of this study was to determine in a French population the factors that affect siblings' participation in screening, notably those relating to the individuals, their medical care, their family and their social network. METHODS: A cross sectional survey was conducted in siblings of index patients having undergone surgery for colorectal cancer between 1999 and 2002 in two French counties. Siblings were contacted during 2007 and 2008 through the index patient. The factors affecting participation in colonoscopic screening were studied by logistic regression taking into account family cluster effect. RESULTS: 172 siblings of 74 index cases were included. The declared rate of undergoing at least one colonoscopy among siblings was 66%; 95%CI 59-73%. Five variables were independently associated with colonoscopic screening: perceiving fewer barriers to screening (OR = 3.2; 95%CI 1.2-8.5), having received the recommendation to undergo screening from a physician (OR = 4.9; 1.7-13.7), perceiving centres practising colonoscopy as more accessible (OR = 3.2, 1.3-7.8), having discussed screening with all siblings (OR = 3.9; 1.6-9.6) and being a member of an association (OR = 2.6; 1.0-6.6). CONCLUSIONS: The factors independently associated with participation in CRC screening by an individual at increased risk belonged to each of four dimensions relating to his individual psychosocial characteristics, to his relationship with a physician, within the family and social environment. The relevance of these results to clinical practice may help to improve compliance to recommendations in a global preventive strategy including all stages of the information pathway from the physician to the index patient and his relatives

Contribution of DEAF1 Structural Domains to the Interaction with the Breast Cancer Oncogene LMO4

The proteins LMO4 and DEAF1 contribute to the proliferation of mammary epithelial cells. During breast cancer LMO4 is upregulated, affecting its interaction with other protein partners. This may set cells on a path to tumour formation. LMO4 and DEAF1 interact, but it is unknown how they cooperate to regulate cell proliferation. In this study, we identify a specific LMO4-binding domain in DEAF1. This domain contains an unstructured region that directly contacts LMO4, and a coiled coil that contains the DEAF1 nuclear export signal (NES). The coiled coil region can form tetramers and has the typical properties of a coiled coil domain. Using a simple cell-based assay, we show that LMO4 modulates the activity of the DEAF NES, causing nuclear accumulation of a construct containing the LMO4-interaction region of DEAF1

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Determinants of Cross-Border M&As and Shareholder Wealth Effects in a Globalized World

We analyze theoretical insights and empirical regularities related to factors determining the cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and impact of M&As on shareholder value of acquires and targets. The analysis of cross-border M&As is a relatively new subject and only recently received rigorous attention in academic research. Within this nascent literature, the survey pays particular attention to the emerging markets, which, in line with their growing role of in the global economy, became an increasingly important arena for cross-border M&As. The existing evidence point out to prevailing challenges in studying cross-border M&As by emerging markets firms. The results are often contradictory and tend to focus on a single country falling short of formally testing existing theories or developing comprehensive theories for emerging economies. We show that the type of factors increasing the value enhancing effects of M&As tends to be similar to the factors affecting the likelihood of M&As transactions. The remaining methodological challenges for the existing studies are related to strong evidence with respect to nonrandom selection of acquisition targets, which, among other “selection issues,” has important implications for choosing counterfactual evidence in order to appropriately compare pre- and postacquisition performance of firms

Correlates of sunscreen use among high school students: a cross-sectional survey

Abstract Background Adolescents put themselves at risk of later skin cancer development and accelerated photo-aging due to their high rates of ultraviolet radiation exposure and low rates of skin protection. The purpose of the current study was to determine which of the Integrative Model constructs are most closely associated with sunscreen use among high school students. Methods The current study of 242 high school students involved a survey based on the Integrative Model including demographic and individual difference factors, skin protection-related beliefs and outcome evaluations, normative beliefs, self-efficacy, sunscreen cues and availability, intentions, and sunscreen use. Our analyses included multiple linear regressions and bootstrapping to test for mediation effects. Results Sunscreen use was significantly associated with female gender, greater skin sensitivity, higher perceived sunscreen benefits, higher skin protection importance, more favorable sunscreen user prototype, stronger skin protection norms, greater perceived skin protection behavioral control, and higher sunscreen self-efficacy. Intentions to use sunscreen mediated the relationships between most skin protection-related beliefs and sunscreen use. Conclusions The current study identified specific variables that can be targeted in interventions designed to increase sunscreen use among adolescents.</p

Factors associated with intentions to adhere to colorectal cancer screening follow-up exams

BACKGROUND: To increase adherence rate to recommendations for follow-up after abnormal colorectal cancer (CRC) screening results, factors that inhibit and facilitate follow-up must be identified. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors associated with intention to adhere to CRC screening follow-up exams. METHODS: During a 4-week period in October 2003, this survey was conducted with 426 subjects participating in a community-based CRC screening program in Nagano, Japan. Study measures included intention to adhere to recommendation for clinical follow-up in the event of an abnormal fecal occult blood test (FOBT) result, perceived susceptibility and severity of CRC, perceived benefits and barriers related to undergoing follow-up examination, social support, knowledge of CRC risk factors, health status, previous CRC screening, personality and social demographic characteristics. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses on intention to adhere to recommendations for follow-up were performed. RESULTS: Among the 288 individuals analyzed, approximately 74.7% indicated that they would definitely adhere to recommendations for follow-up. After controlling for age, gender, marital status, education, economic status, trait anxiety, bowel symptoms, family history of CRC, and previous screening FOBT, analyses revealed that lower levels of perceived barriers, higher levers of perceived benefits and knowledge of CRC risk factors were significantly associated with high intention respectively. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that future interventions should focus on reducing modifiable barriers by clarifying misperceptions about follow-up, promoting the acceptance of complete diagnostic evaluations, addressing psychological distress, and making follow-up testing more convenient and accessible. Moreover, educating the public regarding the risk factors of CRC and increasing understanding of the benefits of follow-up is also important