Assessment of the MACC reanalysis and its influence as chemical boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling in AQMEII-2

The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) has now reached its second phase which is dedicated to the evaluation of online coupled chemistry-meteorology models. Sixteen modeling groups from Europe and five from North America have run regional air quality models to simulate the year 2010 over one European and one North American domain. The MACC re-analysis has been used as chemical initial (IC) and boundary conditions (BC) by all participating regional models in AQMEII-2. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the MACC re-analysis along with the participating regional models against a set of ground-based measurements (O3, CO, NO, NO2, SO2, SO42−) and vertical profiles (O3 and CO). Results indicate different degrees of agreement between the measurements and the MACC re-analysis, with an overall better performance over the North American domain. The influence of BC on regional air quality simulations is analyzed in a qualitative way by contrasting model performance for the MACC re-analysis with that for the regional models. This approach complements more quantitative approaches documented in the literature that often have involved sensitivity simulations but typically were limited to only one or only a few regional scale models. Results suggest an important influence of the BC on ozone for which the underestimation in winter in the MACC re-analysis is mimicked by the regional models. For CO, it is found that background concentrations near the domain boundaries are rather close to observations while those over the interior of the two continents are underpredicted by both MACC and the regional models over Europe but only by MACC over North America. This indicates that emission differences between the MACC re-analysis and the regional models can have a profound impact on model performance and points to the need for harmonization of inputs in future linked global/regional modeling studies

Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data

© 2016. This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Ioannis Kioutsioukis, et al, ‘Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data’, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 16(24): 15629-15652, published 20 December 2016, the version of record is available at doi:10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016 Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each station's best deterministic model at no more than 60 % of the sites, indicating a combination of members with unbalanced skill difference and error dependence for the rest. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31 % compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way. The skill improvements were higher for O3 and lower for PM10, associated with the extent of potential changes in the joint distribution of accuracy and diversity in the ensembles. The skill enhancement was superior using the weighting scheme, but the training period required to acquire representative weights was longer compared to the sub-selecting schemes. Further development of the method is discussed in the conclusion.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Mesenchymal tumor organoid models recapitulate rhabdomyosarcoma subtypes

Rhabdomyosarcomas (RMS) are mesenchyme-derived tumors and the most common childhood soft tissue sarcomas. Treatment is intense, with a nevertheless poor prognosis for high-risk patients. Discovery of new therapies would benefit from additional preclinical models. Here, we describe the generation of a collection of 19 pediatric RMS tumor organoid (tumoroid) models (success rate of 41%) comprising all major subtypes. For aggressive tumors, tumoroid models can often be established within 4-8 weeks, indicating the feasibility of personalized drug screening. Molecular, genetic, and histological characterization show that the models closely resemble the original tumors, with genetic stability over extended culture periods of up to 6 months. Importantly, drug screening reflects established sensitivities and the models can be modified by CRISPR/Cas9 with TP53 knockout in an embryonal RMS model resulting in replicative stress drug sensitivity. Tumors of mesenchymal origin can therefore be used to generate organoid models, relevant for a variety of preclinical and clinical research questions

Results of the first European Source Apportionment intercomparison for Receptor and Chemical Transport Models

In this study, the performance of the source apportionment model applications were evaluated by comparing the model results provided by 44 participants adopting a methodology based on performance indicators: z-scores and RMSEu, with pre-established acceptability criteria. Involving models based on completely different and independent input data, such as receptor models (RMs) and chemical transport models (CTMs), provided a unique opportunity to cross-validate them. In addition, comparing the modelled source chemical profiles, with those measured directly at the source contributed to corroborate the chemical profile of the tested model results. The most used RM was EPA- PMF5. RMs showed very good performance for the overall dataset (91% of z-scores accepted) and more difficulties are observed with SCE time series (72% of RMSEu accepted). Industry resulted the most problematic source for RMs due to the high variability among participants. Also the results obtained with CTMs were quite comparable to their ensemble reference using all models for the overall average (>92% of successful z-scores) while the comparability of the time series is more problematic (between 58% and 77% of the candidates’ RMSEu are accepted). In the CTM models a gap was observed between the sum of source contributions and the gravimetric PM10 mass likely due to PM underestimation in the base case. Interestingly, when only the tagged species CTM results were used in the reference, the differences between the two CTM approaches (brute force and tagged species) were evident. In this case the percentage of candidates passing the z-score and RMSEu tests were only 50% and 86%, respectively. CTMs showed good comparability with RMs for the overall dataset (83% of the z-scores accepted), more differences were observed when dealing with the time series of the single source categories. In this case the share of successful RMSEu was in the range 25% - 34%.JRC.C.5-Air and Climat

Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data

Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O$_{3}$), nitrogen dioxide (NO$_{2}$) and particulate matter (PM$_{10}$). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O$_{3}$ than NO$_{2}$ and PM$_{10}$, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each station’s best deterministic model at no more than 60% of the sites, indicating a combination of members with unbalanced skill difference and error dependence for the rest. The promotion of the right amount of accuracy and diversity within the ensemble results in an average additional skill of up to 31% compared to using the full ensemble in an unconditional way. The skill improvements were higher for O$_{3}$ and lower for PM$_{10}$, associated with the extent of potential changes in the joint distribution of accuracy and diversity in the ensembles. The skill enhancement was superior using the weighting scheme, but the training period required to acquire representative weights was longer compared to the sub-selecting schemes. Further development of the method is discussed in the conclusion

Effectiveness of nutritional supplements on cognitive functioning in elderly persons: a systematic review.

Item does not contain fulltextBACKGROUND: The effectiveness of nutritional supplementation in improving cognitive functioning is evaluated in elderly people. METHODS: The authors systematically reviewed randomized controlled trials that compared nutritional supplementation with a placebo treatment. Trials were identified from a MEDLINE search and from reference lists of identified studies and review articles. From each trial, information was gathered on the number and age of persons studied; the type, dosage, and duration of the intervention; and the assessed outcome measures. RESULTS: From 1086 titles, 571 articles were excluded based on their titles. Of the remaining 467 articles, the abstracts were read and 422 articles were excluded based on information found there. The remaining articles were screened for quality aspects of the study design, leaving 21 proper randomized, controlled trials. These trials are discussed in three groups according to the type of supplementation: multinutrient intervention or single components with or without a putative mechanism. Twelve studies, which were evenly distributed among the three supplement groups, found significantly positive effects of nutritional intervention on cognitive functioning, whereas nine studies did not. None of the studies found a significantly negative effect of nutritional intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Shortcomings in methodology varying from the duration of intervention to outcome measures partly explain discrepancies in findings. Despite the heterogeneity in trial design, the results of this review suggest that nutritional supplements may improve the cognitive functioning of elderly persons and do no harm. Further well-designed studies are needed to support these findings