Caudwell Xtreme Everest: A prospective study of the effects of environmental hypoxia on cognitive functioning.

BACKGROUND: The neuropsychological consequences of exposure to environmental hypobaric hypoxia (EHH) remain unclear. We thus investigated them in a large group of healthy volunteers who trekked to Mount Everest base camp (5,300 m). METHODS: A neuropsychological (NP) test battery assessing memory, language, attention, and executive function was administered to 198 participants (age 44.5±13.7 years; 60% male). These were studied at baseline (sea level), 3,500 m (Namche Bazaar), 5,300 m (Everest Base Camp) and on return to 1,300 m (Kathmandu) (attrition rate 23.7%). A comparable control group (n = 25; age 44.5±14.1 years; 60% male) for comparison with trekkers was tested at/or near sea level over an equivalent timeframe so as to account for learning effects associated with repeat testing. The Reliable Change Index (RCI) was used to calculate changes in cognition and neuropsychological function during and after exposure to EHH relative to controls. RESULTS: Overall, attention, verbal ability and executive function declined in those exposed to EHH when the performance of the control group was taken into account (RCI .05 to -.95) with decline persisting at descent. Memory and psychomotor function showed decline at highest ascent only (RCI -.08 to -.56). However, there was inter-individual variability in response: whilst NP performance declined in most, this improved in some trekkers. Cognitive decline was greater amongst older people (r = .42; p < .0001), but was otherwise not consistently associated with socio-demographic, mood, or physiological variables. CONCLUSIONS: After correcting for learning effects, attention, verbal abilities and executive functioning declined with exposure to EHH. There was considerable individual variability in the response of brain function to sustained hypoxia with some participants not showing any effects of hypoxia. This might have implications for those facing sustained hypoxia as a result of any disease

Genetic diversity, population structure, and historical demography of a highly vagile and human‐impacted seabird in the Pacific Ocean: The red‐tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubricauda

Many seabird breeding colonies have recovered from heavy anthropogenic disturbance after conservation actions. The widely distributed red-tailed tropicbird, Phaethon rubricauda, was used as a model species to assess potential anthropogenic impacts on the genetic diversity of breeding colonies in the Pacific Ocean. Cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and control region sequences analyses were conducted across the range of the species in the Pacific Ocean. The study sites were at islands without human-related disturbance (non-impacted islands) and with human-related disturbance (impacted islands). We hypothesized that (i) breeding colonies of the red-tailed tropicbird on impacted islands have lower genetic diversity compared with colonies on non-impacted islands, and (ii) breeding colonies of the red-tailed tropicbird show significant fine and broad-scale genetic structure across the Pacific Ocean. Bayesian skyline analyses were conducted to infer past changes in population sizes. Genetic diversity was similar between impacted and non-impacted islands. There was significant broad-scale genetic structure among colonies separated by over 6,000 km, but a lack of significant fine-scale genetic structure within Australasia and Hawai'i, although a significant level of differentiation was found within Chile with ΦST analyses. Skyline analyses showed that effective population sizes remained relatively constant through time, but experienced either a slight decrease or the end of an expansion event through the last 1,000 years. These changes may be related to the arrival of humans on Pacific islands. Impacted islands may have received immigrants from other relatively close islands, buffering the loss of genetic diversity. However, it is also possible that colonies have retained ancestral variation or that a large effective population size coupled with a long generation time (13 years) has prevented the loss of genetic diversity in human-impacted islands. Future research using higher-resolution markers is needed to resolve the population genetic structure of the red-tailed tropicbird in an ecological time-scale

Predicting outcomes of pelvic exenteration using machine learning

Aim: We aim to compare machine learning with neural network performance in predicting R0 resection (R0), length of stay &gt;&nbsp;14&nbsp;days (LOS), major complication rates at 30&nbsp;days postoperatively (COMP) and survival greater than 1 year (SURV) for patients having pelvic exenteration for locally advanced and recurrent rectal cancer. Method: A deep learning computer was built and the programming environment was established. The PelvEx Collaborative database was used which contains anonymized data on patients who underwent pelvic exenteration for locally advanced or locally recurrent colorectal cancer between 2004 and 2014. Logistic regression, a support vector machine and an artificial neural network (ANN) were trained. Twenty per cent of the data were used as a test set for calculating prediction accuracy for R0, LOS, COMP and SURV. Model performance was measured by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUROC). Results: Machine learning models and ANNs were trained on 1147 cases. The AUROC for all outcome predictions ranged from 0.608 to 0.793 indicating modest to moderate predictive ability. The models performed best at predicting LOS &gt;&nbsp;14&nbsp;days with an AUROC of 0.793 using preoperative and operative data. Visualized logistic regression model weights indicate a varying impact of variables on the outcome in question. Conclusion: This paper highlights the potential for predictive modelling of large international databases. Current data allow moderate predictive ability of both complex ANNs and more classic methods

Predicting the difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomy: development and validation of a pre-operative risk score using an objective operative difficulty grading system

Background: The prediction of a difficult cholecystectomy has traditionally been based on certain pre-operative clinical and imaging factors. Most of the previous literature reported small patient cohorts and have not used an objective measure of operative difficulty. The aim of this study was to develop a pre-operative score to predict difficult cholecystectomy, as defined by a validated intra-operative difficulty grading scale. Method: Two cohorts from prospectively maintained databases of patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy were analysed: the CholeS Study (8755 patients) and a single surgeon series (4089 patients). Factors potentially predictive of difficulty were correlated to the Nassar intra-operative difficulty scale. A multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was then used to identify factors that were independently associated with difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomy, defined as operative difficulty grades 3 to 5. The resulting model was then converted to a risk score, and validated on both internal and external datasets. Result: Increasing age and ASA classification, male gender, diagnosis of CBD stone or cholecystitis, thick-walled gallbladders, CBD dilation, use of pre-operative ERCP and non-elective operations were found to be significant independent predictors of difficult cases. A risk score based on these factors returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.789 (95% CI 0.773–0.806, p &lt; 0.001) on external validation, with 11.0% versus 80.0% of patients classified as low versus high risk having difficult surgeries. Conclusion: We have developed and validated a pre-operative scoring system that uses easily available pre-operative variables to predict difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomies. This scoring system should assist in patient selection for day case surgery, optimising pre-operative surgical planning (e.g. allocation of the procedure to a suitably trained surgeon) and counselling patients during the consent process. The score could also be used to risk adjust outcomes in future research