73 research outputs found

    Chemistry–climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes

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    The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade21 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 Kdecade21 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces awestward acceleration of the lower-stratosphericwind over theAntarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade21 in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (;70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade21, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward acceleration of the subtropical jets, which increases the upward flux of (parameterized) momentum reaching the lower stratosphere in these latitudes

    Evaluation of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in global climate models for the SPARC QBO‐initiative

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    The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) is a model intercomparison programme that specifically targets simulation of the QBO in current global climate models. Eleven of the models or model versions that participated in a QBOi intercomparison study have upper boundaries in or above the mesosphere and therefore simulate the region where the stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) is the dominant mode of variability of zonal winds in the tropical upper stratosphere. Comparisons of the SAO simulations in these models are presented here. These show that the model simulations of the amplitudes and phases of the SAO in zonal‐mean zonal wind near the stratopause agree well with the information derived from available observations. However, most of the models simulate time‐average zonal winds that are more westward than determined from observations, in some cases by several tens of m·s1^{–1}. Validation of wave activity in the models is hampered by the limited observations of tropical waves in the upper stratosphere but suggests a deficit of eastward forcing either by large‐scale waves, such as Kelvin waves, or by gravity waves

    An empirical model of the Earth's horizontal wind fields: HWM07

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    The new Horizontal Wind Model (HWM07) provides a statistical representation of the horizontal wind fields of the Earth's atmosphere from the ground to the exosphere (0-500 km). It represents over 50 years of satellite, rocket, and ground-based wind measurements via a compact Fortran 90 subroutine. The computer model is a function of geographic location, altitude, day of the year, solar local time, and geomagnetic activity. It includes representations of the zonal mean circulation, stationary planetary waves, migrating tides, and the seasonal modulation thereof. HWM07 is composed of two components, a quiet time component for the background state described in this paper and a geomagnetic storm time component (DWM07) described in a companion paper

    An intercomparison between the GSWM, UARS, and ground based radar observations: a case-study in January 1993

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    The Global-Scale Wave Model (GSWM) is a steady-state two-dimensional linearized model capable of simulating the solar tides and planetary waves. In an effort to understand the capabilities and limitations of the GSWM throughout the upper mesosphere and thermosphere a comparative analysis with observational data is presented. A majority of the observational data used in this study was collected during the World Day campaign which ran from 20 January to 30 January 1993. During this campaign data from 18 ground-based observational sites across the globe and two instruments located on the UARS spacecraft were analyzed. Comparisons of these data with the simulations from the GSWM indicate that the GSWM results are in reasonable agreement with the observations. However, there are a number of cases where the agreement is not particularly good. One such instance is for the semidiurnal tide in the northern hemisphere, where the GSWM estimates may exceed observations by 50%. Through a number of numerical simulations, it appears that this discrepancy may be due to the eddy diffusivity profiles used by the GSWM. Other differences relating to the diurnal tide and the quasi-two-day wave are presented and discussed. Additionally, a discussion on the biases and aliasing difficulties which may arise in the observational data is alos presented.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47859/1/585_1997_Article_70151123.pd
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