A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK

A new modelling strategy is introduced which provides a practical approach to incorporating long- run structural relationships, suggested by economic theory, in an otherwise unrestricted VAR model. The strategy is applied in the construction of a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK, estimated over the period 1965q1-1995q4 in eight core variables: domestic and foreign outputs, domestic and foreign prices (both measured relative to oil prices), the nominal effective exchange rate, nominal domestic and foreign interest rates and real money balances. The aim is to develop a core model with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. Tests of restrictions on the long-run relations of the model are presented and the dynamic properties of the model are discussed.Long-Run Structural VAR, A Core UK Model, Macroeconomic Modelling, Persistence Profiles

Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomics Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround marco-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macro-econometric model, are presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that recession will be avoided, both as separate single events and jointly. The probability forecasts are also used to provide insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons.Probability Forecasting, Long Run Structural VARs, Macroeconometric Modelling, Forecast Evaluation, Probability Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth

Life-span Extension With Reduced Somatotrophic Signaling: Moderation of Aging Effect by Signal Type, Sex, and Experimental Cohort.

Reduced somatotrophic signaling through the growth hormone (GH) and insulin-like growth factor pathways (IGF1) can delay aging, although the degree of life-extension varies markedly across studies. By collating data from previous studies and using meta-analysis, we tested whether factors including sex, hormonal manipulation, body weight change and control baseline mortality quantitatively predict relative lifeextension. Manipulations of GH signaling (including pituitary and direct GH deficiencies) generate significantly greater extension in median life span than IGF1 manipulations (including IGF1 production, reception, and bioactivity), producing a consistent shift in mortality risk of mutant mice. Reduced Insulin receptor substrate (IRS) expression produces more similar life-extension to reduced GH, although effects are more heterogeneous and appear to influence the demography of mortality differently. Life-extension with reduced IGF1 signaling, but neither GH nor IRS signaling, increases life span significantly more in females than males, and in cohorts where control survival is short. Our results thus suggest that reduced GH signaling has physiological benefits to survival outside of its actions on circulating IGF1. In addition to these biological moderators, we found an overrepresentation of small sample sized studies that report large improvements in survival, indicating potential publication bias. We discuss how this could potentially confound current conclusions from published work, and how this warrants further study replication

Comparative idiosyncrasies in life extension by reduced mTOR signalling and its distinctiveness from dietary restriction.

Reduced mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR) signalling extends lifespan in yeast, nematodes, fruit flies and mice, highlighting a physiological pathway that could modulate aging in evolutionarily divergent organisms. This signalling system is also hypothesized to play a central role in lifespan extension via dietary restriction. By collating data from 48 available published studies examining lifespan with reduced mTOR signalling, we show that reduced mTOR signalling provides similar increases in median lifespan across species, with genetic mTOR manipulations consistently providing greater life extension than pharmacological treatment with rapamycin. In contrast to the consistency in changes in median lifespan, however, the demographic causes for life extension are highly species specific. Reduced mTOR signalling extends lifespan in nematodes by strongly reducing the degree to which mortality rates increase with age (aging rate). By contrast, life extension in mice and yeast occurs largely by pushing back the onset of aging, but not altering the shape of the mortality curve once aging starts. Importantly, in mice, the altered pattern of mortality induced by reduced mTOR signalling is different to that induced by dietary restriction, which reduces the rate of aging. Effects of mTOR signalling were also sex dependent, but only within mice, and not within flies, thus again species specific. An alleviation of age-associated mortality is not a shared feature of reduced mTOR signalling across model organisms and does not replicate the established age-related survival benefits of dietary restriction

Dangerous liaisons: youth sport, citizenship and intergenerational mistrust

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in International Journal of Sport Policy and Politics on 24/3/2014, available online: DOI 10.1080/19406940.2014.896390This paper reflects on and offers a critical analysis of the relationship between youth sport and citizenship development, in practice and in the UK policy context of sports coaching and physical education. While deploying data and insights from a recently completed research project in England, which identified substantial tensions in intergenerational relationships in sport and coaching, the argument and analysis also invokes wider international concerns and more generally applicable implications for policy and practice. Drawing heuristically upon the philosophy of Dewey (2007 [1916]), it is recognised that the concept of citizenship as a form of social practice should seek to encourage the development of complementary traits and dispositions in young people. To develop socially and educationally thus entails engagement in meaningful social and cultural activity, of which one potentially significant component is participation in youth sport, both within and outside formal education. However, it is argued that any confident assumption that sporting and coaching contexts will necessarily foster positive traits and dispositions in young people should be considered dubious and misplaced. Deploying a Lacanian (1981) perspective to interpret our data, we contend that ‘liaisons’ and interactions between coaches and young people are often treated suspiciously, and regarded as potentially ‘dangerous’

Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables to their foreign counterparts and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where over-identifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. Similarly, short-run over-identifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where foreign variables can be interpreted as proxies for global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated

Trading places : worklessness dynamics in Greater Manchester

As part of the Local Economic Assessment process, a number of additional research projects were proposed by Greater Manchester (GM) local authorities into areas where data gaps exist or a greater understanding and analysis of a particular issue is required. One such area was the dynamics of the workless population in deprived neighbourhoods. There are neighbourhoods across GM where worklessness rates are persistently high. It has been suggested that in some areas this is partly the result of individuals moving out of deprived neighbourhoods to ‘better’ areas having found employment and then being replaced by workless individuals moving into the neighbourhood. Thus, people experience positive individual level employment outcomes whilst living in a neighbourhood, but the area may change little over time and may appear unresponsive to initiatives aimed at reducing worklessness. The analysis in this report breaks new ground in using individual level data on employment transitions and geographical movements taken from Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) records to shed light on neighbourhood level population dynamics

Understanding the worklessness dynamics and characteristics of deprived areas

Research was commissioned to use individual level data from the Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) to try to shed light on some unanswered questions about the dynamics of worklessness in deprived areas. It has been suggested that in certain deprived neighbourhoods individuals make the transition from worklessness into employment and move away to less deprived areas. As these people move away they are replaced by inflows of other workless people who may themselves find employment and move on in a similar way. Therefore, although people experience positive individual level employment outcomes whilst living in a neighbourhood, the area may change little over time and may appear unresponsive to initiatives aimed at reducing worklessness. This research examines this issue and the associated policy implications. The research classifies deprived areas according to whether they were an ‘improver’ or ‘non-improver’ area, over the period 2004 to 2007, as well as identifying ‘transition’ areas (a subset of ‘non-improver’ areas characterised by high population churn). We have published a full list of these classifications for each Lower Super Output Area in Great Britain, to enable local partners to conduct their own follow-up research into the issues locally. This has been simultaneously published alongside this report

Wildflower Strip Establishment for the Delivery of Ecosystem Services in Sweet Cherry Orchards

The practice of introducing wildflower habitats in cropped areas is an approach that can be used to enhance ecosystem services. The value of such an approach will be affected by the establishment success of the sown species. To investigate this, 12 strips of wildflower habitat were established in alleyways between rows of cherry trees at three sites in the West Midlands (UK). The establishment of plants in sown strips was compared to six untreated alleyways that received conventional management. Eight forb species and one grass species was sown in strips measuring 1 m × 95 m. The establishment success of the sown species and their contribution to the vegetation of the alleyway was determined using percentage cover assessments in replicate quadrats. Dactylis glomerata, Leucanthemum vulgare, Prunella vulgaris and Lotus corniculatus established most consistently and with greater cover values in the sown strips. However, the sown strips were also associated with a greater abundance of unsown species, some of which are classed as weeds

Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime