An Evidence Based Time-Frequency Search Method for Gravitational Waves from Pulsar Glitches

We review and expand on a Bayesian model selection technique for the detection of gravitational waves from neutron star ring-downs associated with pulsar glitches. The algorithm works with power spectral densities constructed from overlapping time segments of gravitational wave data. Consequently, the original approach was at risk of falsely identifying multiple signals where only one signal was present in the data. We introduce an extension to the algorithm which uses posterior information on the frequency content of detected signals to cluster events together. The requirement that we have just one detection per signal is now met with the additional bonus that the belief in the presence of a signal is boosted by incorporating information from adjacent time segments.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, submitted to AMALDI 7 proceeding

A Bayesian method for detecting stellar flares

We present a Bayesian-odds-ratio-based algorithm for detecting stellar flares in light curve data. We assume flares are described by a model in which there is a rapid rise with a half-Gaussian profile, followed by an exponential decay. Our signal model also contains a polynomial background model. This is required to fit underlying light curve variations that are expected in the data, which could otherwise partially mimic a flare. We characterise the false alarm probability and efficiency of this method and compare it with a simpler thresholding method based on that used in Walkowicz et al (2011). We find our method has a significant increase in detection efficiency for low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) flares. For a conservative false alarm probability our method can detect 95% of flares with S/N less than ~20, as compared to S/N of ~25 for the simpler method. As an example we have applied our method to a selection of stars in Kepler Quarter 1 data. The method finds 687 flaring stars with a total of 1873 flares after vetos have been applied. For these flares we have characterised their durations and and signal-to-noise ratios.Comment: Accepted for MNRAS. The code used for the analysis can be found at https://github.com/BayesFlare/bayesflare/releases/tag/v1.0.

Advanced technologies for future ground-based, laser-interferometric gravitational wave detectors

We present a review of modern optical techniques being used and developed for the field of gravitational wave detection. We describe the current state-of-the-art of gravitational waves detector technologies with regard to optical layouts, suspensions and test masses. We discuss the dominant sources and noise in each of these subsystems and the developments that will help mitigate them for future generations of detectors. We very briefly summarise some of the novel astrophysics that will be possible with these upgraded detectors

Inferring Core-Collapse Supernova Physics with Gravitational Waves

Stellar collapse and the subsequent development of a core-collapse supernova explosion emit bursts of gravitational waves (GWs) that might be detected by the advanced generation of laser interferometer gravitational-wave observatories such as Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo, and LCGT. GW bursts from core-collapse supernovae encode information on the intricate multi-dimensional dynamics at work at the core of a dying massive star and may provide direct evidence for the yet uncertain mechanism driving supernovae in massive stars. Recent multi-dimensional simulations of core-collapse supernovae exploding via the neutrino, magnetorotational, and acoustic explosion mechanisms have predicted GW signals which have distinct structure in both the time and frequency domains. Motivated by this, we describe a promising method for determining the most likely explosion mechanism underlying a hypothetical GW signal, based on Principal Component Analysis and Bayesian model selection. Using simulated Advanced LIGO noise and assuming a single detector and linear waveform polarization for simplicity, we demonstrate that our method can distinguish magnetorotational explosions throughout the Milky Way (D <~ 10kpc) and explosions driven by the neutrino and acoustic mechanisms to D <~ 2kpc. Furthermore, we show that we can differentiate between models for rotating accretion-induced collapse of massive white dwarfs and models of rotating iron core collapse with high reliability out to several kpc.Comment: 22 pages, 9 figure

The declining representativeness of the British party system, and why it matters

In a recent article, Michael Laver has explained ‘Why Vote-Seeking Parties May Make Voters Miserable’. His model shows that, while ideological convergence may boost congruence between governments and the median voter, it can reduce congruence between the party system and the electorate as a whole. Specifically, convergence can increase the mean distance between voters and their nearest party. In this article we show that this captures the reality of today’s British party system. Policy scale placements in British Election Studies from 1987 to 2010 confirm that the pronounced convergence during the past decade has left the Conservatives and Labour closer together than would be optimal in terms of minimising the policy distance between the average voter and the nearest major party. We go on to demonstrate that this comes at a cost. Respondents who perceive themselves as further away from one of the major parties in the system tend to score lower on satisfaction with democracy. In short, vote-seeking parties have left the British party system less representative of the ideological diversity in the electorate, and thus made at least some British voters miserable

On the complementarity of pulsar timing and space laser interferometry for the individual detection of supermassive black hole binaries

Gravitational waves coming from Super Massive Black Hole Binaries (SMBHBs) are targeted by both Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) and Space Laser Interferometry (SLI). The possibility of a single SMBHB being tracked first by PTA, through inspiral, and later by SLI, up to merger and ring down, has been previously suggested. Although the bounding parameters are drawn by the current PTA or the upcoming Square Kilometer Array (SKA), and by the New Gravitational Observatory (NGO), derived from the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), this paper also addresses sequential detection beyond specific project constraints. We consider PTA-SKA, which is sensitive from 10^(-9) to p x 10^(-7) Hz (p=4, 8), and SLI, which operates from s x 10^(-5) up to 1 Hz (s = 1, 3). A SMBHB in the range 2x 10^(8) - 2 x 10^(9) solar masses (the masses are normalised to a (1+z) factor, the red shift lying between z = 0.2 and z=1.5) moves from the PTA-SKA to the SLI band over a period ranging from two months to fifty years. By combining three Super Massive Black Hole (SMBH)-host relations with three accretion prescriptions, nine astrophysical scenarios are formed. They are then related to three levels of pulsar timing residuals (50, 5, 1 ns), generating twenty-seven cases. For residuals of 1 ns, sequential detection probability will never be better than 4.7 x 10^(-4) y^(-2) or 3.3 x 10^(-6) y^(-2) (per year to merger and per year of survey), according to the best and worst astrophysical scenarios, respectively; put differently this means one sequential detection every 46 or 550 years for an equivalent maximum time to merger and duration of the survey. The chances of sequential detection are further reduced by increasing values of the s parameter (they vanish for s = 10) and of the SLI noise, and by decreasing values of the remnant spin. REST OF THE ABSTRACT IN THE PDF FILE.Comment: To appear in the Astrophysical Journa

Gravitational wave detection using pulsars: status of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array project

The first direct detection of gravitational waves may be made through observations of pulsars. The principal aim of pulsar timing array projects being carried out worldwide is to detect ultra-low frequency gravitational waves (f ~ 10^-9 to 10^-8 Hz). Such waves are expected to be caused by coalescing supermassive binary black holes in the cores of merged galaxies. It is also possible that a detectable signal could have been produced in the inflationary era or by cosmic strings. In this paper we review the current status of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array project (the only such project in the Southern hemisphere) and compare the pulsar timing technique with other forms of gravitational-wave detection such as ground- and space-based interferometer systems.Comment: Accepted for publication in PAS

Obstetrics and Gynecology at the University of Iowa: Three leaders and 51 years

In his history of the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of the University of Iowa College of Medicine, William C. Keettel traced the evolution of the department from its origin in 1870 until 1980. This article will focus on a particular segment of the department’s history, that from 1926 to 1977, in which the department grew and developed to a position of national stature. During this 51-year period, departmental leadership was provided by three individuals, E. D. Plass (1926-1951), John H. Randall (1952-1959), and William C. Keettel (1959-1977) and this paper will consider these three men and their contributions to the department’s growth and development. The 1980 department history provided most of the basis of the article, although a small amount of the Randall section and a substantial amount of the Keettel section reflect my personal perspective and recollections

Report on the first round of the Mock LISA Data Challenges

The Mock LISA Data Challenges (MLDCs) have the dual purpose of fostering the development of LISA data analysis tools and capabilities, and demonstrating the technical readiness already achieved by the gravitational-wave community in distilling a rich science payoff from the LISA data output. The first round of MLDCs has just been completed: nine data sets containing simulated gravitational wave signals produced either by galactic binaries or massive black hole binaries embedded in simulated LISA instrumental noise were released in June 2006 with deadline for submission of results at the beginning of December 2006. Ten groups have participated in this first round of challenges. Here we describe the challenges, summarise the results, and provide a first critical assessment of the entries.Comment: Proceedings report from GWDAW 11. Added author, added reference, clarified some text, removed typos. Results unchanged; Removed author, minor edits, reflects submitted versio