Scenario generation and scenario quality using the cone of plausibility

The intelligence analysis domain is a critical area for futures work. Indeed, intelligence analysts’ judgments of security threats are based on considerations of how futures may unfold, and as such play a vital role in informing policy- and decision-making. In this domain, futures are typically considered using qualitative scenario generation techniques such as the cone of plausibility (CoP). We empirically examined the quality of scenarios generated using this technique on five criteria: completeness, context (otherwise known as ‘relevance/pertinence’), plausibility, coherence, and order effects (i.e., ‘transparency’). Participants were trained to use the CoP and then asked to generate scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. On average, participants generated three scenarios, and these could be characterized as baseline, best case, and worst case. All scenarios were significantly more likely to be of high quality on the ‘coherence’ criterion compared to the other criteria. Scenario quality was independent of scenario type. However, scenarios generated first were significantly more likely to be of high quality on the context and order effects criteria compared to those generated afterwards. We discuss the implications of these findings for the use of the CoP as well as other qualitative scenario generation techniques in futures studies

Framing COVID-19: How we conceptualize and discuss the pandemic on Twitter

Doctors and nurses in these weeks are busy in the trenches, fighting against a new invisible enemy: Covid-19. Cities are locked down and civilians are besieged in their own homes, to prevent the spreading of the virus. War-related terminology is commonly used to frame the discourse around epidemics and diseases. Arguably the discourse around the current epidemic will make use of war-related metaphors too,not only in public discourse and the media, but also in the tweets written by non-experts of mass communication. We hereby present an analysis of the discourse around #Covid-19, based on a corpus of 200k tweets posted on Twitter during March and April 2020. Using topic modelling we first analyze the topics around which the discourse can be classified. Then, we show that the WAR framing is used to talk about specific topics, such as the virus treatment, but not others, such as the effects of social distancing on the population. We then measure and compare the popularity of the WAR frame to three alternative figurative frames (MONSTER, STORM and TSUNAMI) and a literal frame used as control (FAMILY). The results show that while the FAMILY literal frame covers a wider portion of the corpus, among the figurative framings WAR is the most frequently used, and thus arguably the most conventional one. However, we conclude, this frame is not apt to elaborate the discourse around many aspects involved in the current situation. Therefore, we conclude, in line with previous suggestions, a plethora of framing options, or a metaphor menu, may facilitate the communication of various aspects involved in the Covid-19-related discourse on the social media, and thus support civilians in the expression of their feelings, opinions and ideas during the current pandemic.Comment: 41 pages, 6 figure

Using scenarios to forecast outcomes of a refugee crisis

The Syrian civil war has led to millions of Syrians fleeing the country, and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. By considering how such socio-political events may unfold, scenarios can lead to informed forecasts that can be used for decision-making. We examined the relationship between scenarios and forecasts in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis. Forty Turkish students trained to use a brainstorming technique generated scenarios that might follow within six months of the Turkish government banning Syrian refugees from entering the country. Participants generated from 3-6 scenarios. Over half were rated as ‘high’ quality in terms of completeness, relevance/pertinence, plausibility, coherence, and transparency (order effects). Scenario quality was unaffected by scenario quantity. Even though no forecasts were requested, participants’ first scenarios contained from 0-17 forecasts. Mean forecast accuracy was 45% and this was unaffected by forecast quantity. Therefore, brainstorming can offer a simple and quick way of generating scenarios and forecasts that can potentially help decision-makers tackle humanitarian crises

Differences in Carcass and Meat Characteristics Between Chicken Indigenous to Northern Thailand (Black-Boned and Thai Native) and Imported Extensive Breeds (Bresse and Rhode Island Red)

This study examined the effects of 4 genotypes of chicken, all suitable for extensive fattening, on carcass and meat quality using 320 chickens divided into 4 equally sized groups. The comparison included 2 indigenous chicken strains from Thailand, Black-boned and Thai native (Thai), and 2 imported chicken breeds, Bresse and Rhode Island Red (Rhode, a layer breed). The animals were fed until 16 wk of age. Breast (pectoralis major) and thigh (biceps femoris) muscles were studied in detail. Chickens of the imported breeds were heavier at slaughter than indigenous strains, especially Black-boned chickens. Proportions of retail cuts with bones were similar among genotypes, whereas deboned breast meat and lean:bone ratio were lowest in the layer breed (Rhode). The meat of the Black-boned chickens was darker than that of the other genotypes. Thai and Rhode chickens had a particularly yellow skin. The ratio of red and intermediate to white fibers was higher in the thigh muscle, and the diameter of all muscle fiber types in both muscles was smaller in the indigenous compared with the imported breeds. The meat of the 2 indigenous Thai strains had lower contents of fat and cholesterol compared with that of the imported breeds, especially relative to the Rhode chickens (thigh meat). The meat of the indigenous origins, especially of the Thai chickens, was higher in shear force and collagen content (thigh only) than meat of the imported breeds. The meat lipids of the Thai chickens had particularly high proportions of n-3 fatty acids and a favorably low n-6/n-3 fatty acid ratio compared with the other genotypes. In conclusion, meat of indigenous chickens has some unique features and seems to have more advantages over imported breeds than disadvantages, especially when determined for a niche market serving consumers who prefer chewy, low-fat chicken mea

A Comparison of Self-Administered Proprioceptive Neuromuscular Facilitation To Static Stretching On Range of Motion and Flexibility

Please view abstract in the attached PDF file

Flying and Expressive Self-Testing: An Exploratory Consideration

It has long been assumed by naval aviators that there are distinctive personality differences between patrol, attack, helicopter, and fighter pilots. In this research project the authors document those differences and suggest how they might apply to future air safety programs

Tuning Monte Carlo Generators: The Perugia Tunes

We present 9 new tunes of the pT-ordered shower and underlying-event model in PYTHIA 6.4. These "Perugia" tunes update and supersede the older "S0" family. The data sets used to constrain the models include hadronic Z0 decays at LEP, Tevatron minimum-bias data at 630, 1800, and 1960 GeV, Tevatron Drell-Yan data at 1800 and 1960 GeV, and SPS min-bias data at 200, 546, and 900 GeV. In addition to the central parameter set, called "Perugia 0", we introduce a set of 8 related "Perugia Variations" that attempt to systematically explore soft, hard, parton density, and colour structure variations in the theoretical parameters. Based on these variations, a best-guess prediction of the charged track multiplicity in inelastic, nondiffractive minimum-bias events at the LHC is made. Note that these tunes can only be used with PYTHIA 6, not with PYTHIA 8. Note: this report was updated in March 2011 with a new set of variations, collectively labeled "Perugia 2011", that are optimized for matching applications and which also take into account some lessons from the early LHC data. In order not to break the original text, these are described separately in Appendix B. Note 2: a subsequent "Perugia 2012" update is described in Appendix C.Comment: 46 page

How Does Policy Conceptualise Citizen Science? A Qualitative Content Analysis of International Policy Documents

Policy and science show great interest in citizen science as a means to public participation in research. To recognize how citizen science is perceived to foster joint working at the science-society-policy interface, a mutual understanding of the term “citizen science” is required. Here, we assess the conceptualisation and strategic use of the term “citizen science” in policy through a qualitative content analysis of 43 international policy documents edited by governments and authorities. Our results show that most documents embrace the diversity of the research approach and emphasize the many benefits that citizen science may provide for science, society, and policy. These include boosting spatio-temporal data collection through volunteers, tapping into distributed knowledge domains, increasing public interest and engagement in research, and enhancing societal relevance of the respective research. In addition, policy documents attribute educational benefits to citizen science by fostering scientific literacy, individual learning, and skill development, as well as by facilitating environmental stewardship. Through active participation, enhanced ownership of research results may improve policy decision-making processes and possibly democratise research as well as public policy processes, although the latter is mentioned only in a few European Union (EU) documents. Challenges of citizen science mentioned in the analysed policy documents relate mainly to data quality and management, to organisational and governance issues, and to difficulties of the uptake of citizen science results into actual policy implementation due to a lack of citizen science alignment with current policy structures and agendas. Interestingly, documents largely fail to address the benefits and challenges of citizen science as a tool for policy development, i.e., citizen science is mainly perceived as only a science tool. Overall, policy documents seem to be influenced strongly by the citizen science discourse in the science sector, which indicates a joint advocacy for citizen science

Tree balance indices: a comprehensive survey

Tree balance plays an important role in phylogenetics and other research areas, which is why several indices to measure tree balance have been introduced over the years. Nevertheless, a formal definition of what a balance index actually is and what makes it a useful measure of balance (or, in other cases, imbalance), has so far not been introduced in the literature. While the established indices all summarize the (im)balance of a tree in a single number, they vary in their definitions and underlying principles. It is the aim of the present manuscript to introduce formal definitions of balance and imbalance indices that classify desirable properties of such indices and to analyze and categorize established indices accordingly. In this regard, we review 19 established (im)balance indices from the literature, summarize their general, statistical and combinatorial properties (where known), prove numerous additional results and indicate directions for future research by making explicit open questions and gaps in the literature. We also prove that a few tree shape statistics that have been used to measure tree balance in the literature do not fulfill our definition of an (im)balance index, which might indicate that their properties are not as useful for practical purposes. Moreover, we show that five additional tree shape statistics from other contexts actually are tree (im)balance indices according to our definition. The manuscript is accompanied by the website containing fact sheets of the discussed indices. Moreover, we introduce the software package \verb|treebalance| implemented in R that can be used to calculate all indices discussed.1 Introduction 2 Preliminaries 3 Summary of tree balance indices 4 Obtaining new balance indices from established indices 5 Normalizing balance indices 6 Related concepts 7 Software 8 Discussion and outlook 9 Fact sheet