Extreme Associated Functions: Optimally Linking Local Extremes to Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation Structures

We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July-August daily mean temperature at 2m height (T2m) time-series over the Netherlands and 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) time-series over the Euroatlantic region of the ECMWF reanalysis dataset (ERA40). The method identifies patterns in the Z500 time-series that optimally describe, in a precise mathematical sense, the relationship with local warm extremes in the Netherlands. Two patterns are identified; the most important one corresponds to a blocking high pressure system leading to subsidence and calm, dry and sunny conditions over the Netherlands. The second one corresponds to a rare, easterly flow regime bringing warm, dry air into the region. The patterns are robust; they are also identified in shorter subsamples of the total dataset. The method is generally applicable and might prove useful in evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating local weather extremes.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, 14 eps figure files; to appear in J. Atmos. Chem. Phy

Some First Results for Noncooperative Pregames : Social Conformity and Equilibrium in Pure Strategies.

We introduce the framework of noncooperative pregames and demonstrate that for all games with sufficiently many players, there exists approximate (E) Nash equilibria in pure strategies. Moreover, an equilibrium can be selected with the property that most players choose the same strategies as all other players with similar attributes. More precisely, there is an integer K, depending on E but not on the number of players so that any sufficiently large society can be partitioned into fewer than K groups, or cultures, consisting of similar players, and all players in the same group play the same pure strategy. In ongoing research we are extending the model to cover a broader class of situations, including incomplete information.GAMES ; INFORMATION ; STRATEGIC PLANNING

Experiments and Simulations on Day-to-Day Route Choice-Behaviour

The paper reports laboratory experiments on a day-to-day route choice game with two routes. Subjects had to choose between a main road M and a side road S. The capacity was greater for the main road. 18 subjects participated in each session. In equilibrium the number of subjects is 12 on M and 6 on S. Two treatments with 6 sessions each were run at the Laboratory of Experimental Economics at Bonn University using RatImage. Feedback was given in treatment I only about own travel time and in treatment II on travel time for M and S. Money payoffs increase with decreasing time. The main results are as follows. 1. Mean numbers on M and S are very near to the equilibrium. 2. Fluctuations persist until the end of the sessions in both treatments. 3. Fluctuations are smaller under treatment II .The effect is small but significant. 4. The total number of changes is significantly greater in treatment I. 5. Subjects’ road changes and payoffs are negatively correlated in all sessions. 6. A direct response mode reacts with more changes for bad payoffs whereas a contrary response mode shows opposite reactions. Both response modes can be observed. 7. The simulation of an extended payoff sum learning model closely fits the main results of the statistical evaluation of the data.travel behaviour research, information in intelligent transportation systems, day-to-day route choice, laboratory experiments, payoff sum model

Decomposing data sets into skewness modes

We derive the nonlinear equations satisfied by the coefficients of linear combinations that maximize their skewness when their variance is constrained to take a specific value. In order to numerically solve these nonlinear equations we develop a gradient-type flow that preserves the constraint. In combination with the Karhunen-Lo\`eve decomposition this leads to a set of orthogonal modes with maximal skewness. For illustration purposes we apply these techniques to atmospheric data; in this case the maximal-skewness modes correspond to strongly localized atmospheric flows. We show how these ideas can be extended, for example to maximal-flatness modes.Comment: Submitted for publication, 12 pages, 4 figure

Impulse balance and framing effects in threshold public good games

In this paper, we revisit the evidence for framing effects in threshold public good games. Our particular focus is on why the probability of providing the public good appears to be higher in positive, give frames compared with negative, take frames. We show that the impulse balance theory can explain this effect. We also report a new experiment designed to test the predictions of the impulse balance theory. The results of the experiment fit well, both in quantitative and qualitative terms, with our predictions.</p

Complete synchronization of chaotic atmospheric models by connecting only a subset of state space

Connected chaotic systems can, under some circumstances, synchronize their states with an exchange of matter and energy between the systems. This is the case for toy models like the Lorenz 63, and more complex models. In this study we perform synchronization experiments with two connected quasi-geostrophic (QG) models of the atmosphere with 1449 degrees of freedom. The purpose is to determine whether connecting only a subset of the model state space can still lead to complete synchronization (CS). In addition, we evaluated whether empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) form efficient basis functions for synchronization in order to limit the number of connections. In this paper, we show that only the intermediate spectral wavenumbers (5–12) need to be connected in order to achieve CS. In addition, the minimum connection timescale needed for CS is 7.3 days. Both the connection subset and the connection timescale, or strength, are consistent with the time and spatial scales of the baroclinic instabilities in the model. This is in line with the fact that the baroclinic instabilities are the largest source of divergence between the two connected models. Using the Lorenz 63 model, we show that EOFs are nearly optimal basis functions for synchronization. The QG model results show that the minimum number of EOFs that need to be connected for CS is a factor of three smaller than when connecting the original state variables

A gauge invariant chiral unitary framework for kaon photo- and electroproduction on the proton

We present a gauge invariant approach to photoproduction of mesons on nucleons within a chiral unitary framework. The interaction kernel for meson-baryon scattering is derived from the chiral effective Lagrangian and iterated in a Bethe-Salpeter equation. Within the leading order approximation to the interaction kernel, data on kaon photoproduction from SAPHIR, CLAS and CBELSA/TAPS are analyzed in the threshold region. The importance of gauge invariance and the precision of various approximations in the interaction kernel utilized in earlier works are discussed.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figs, EPJ A styl

Commuters route choice behaviour

The paper reports laboratory experiments with a two route choice scenario. In each session 18 subjects had to choose between a main road M and a side road S. The capacity of M was larger. Feedback was given in treatment I only on the subjects' own travel time and in treatment II on travel time for M and S. The main results are as follows: • Mean numbers on M and S are near to pure equilibrium. • Fluctuations persist until the end of the sessions. • The total number of changes is significantly greater in treatment I. • Subjects' road changes and payoffs are negatively correlated. • A direct response mode results in more changes for bad payoffs whereas a contrary response mode shows opposite reactions. • Simulations of an extended payoff sum learning model fits the main results of the statistical evaluation of the data

Treatment seeking for alcohol and drug use disorders by immigrants to the Netherlands: Retrospective, population-based, cohort study

Background We compared risks of first contact with services for an alcohol use disorder (AUD) or drug use disorder (DUD) between the largest immigrant groups to the Netherlands and Dutch nationals. We tested the hypothesis that the ethnic pattern for DUD is similar to the previously demonstrated pattern for schizophrenia. Methods Retrospective, population-based cohort study of First Admissions to Dutch psychiatric hospitals during the period 1990-1996 (national data) and First Contacts with inpatient or outpatient centres in Rotterdam for treatment of AUD or DUD during the period 1992-2001 (Rotterdam data). Results In both datasets the risk of service contact for AUD was significantly lower in immigrants from Surinam, Turkey and Morocco than in Dutch nationals. The risk was lower or moderately higher in immigrants from western countries. Analysis of the national data showed that, compared with Dutch males, the risk of first hospital admission for DUD was higher for male immigrants from the Dutch Antilles (RR = 4.6; 95% CI: 4.0-5.3), Surinam (RR = 4.3; 3.94.7) and Morocco (RR = 23; 2.0-2.6), but not for male immigrants from Turkey (RR = 0.9; 0.7-1.1). A similar pattern was found with the Rotterdam data. Female immigrants from Surinam and the Dutch Antilles had a higher risk for DUD according to the national data, but a lower risk according to the Rotterdam data. Female immigrants from Turkey and Morocco had a lower risk (both datasets). Immigrants from western countries had a higher risk for DUD, but many had developed the disorder before emigrating. Conclusion Those immigrant groups in the Netherlands that are at increased risk of schizophrenia appear also at increased risk of developing DUD, but not AUD