Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

Background: The EMPA KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population. Methods: EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110. Findings: Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5–2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62–0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16–1·59), representing a 50% (42–58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1). Interpretation: In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease. Funding: Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council

Widespread severe wildfires under climate change lead to increased forest homogeneity in dry mixed-conifer forests

Climate warming in the western United States is causing changes to the wildfire regime in mixed-conifer forests. Rising temperatures, longer fire seasons, increased drought, as well as fire suppression and changes in land use, have led to greater and more severe wildfire activity, all contributing to altered forest composition over the past century. To understand future interactions among climate, wildfire, and vegetation in a fire-prone landscape in the southern Blue Mountains of central Oregon, we used a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest and fire dynamics under current management practices and two projected climate scenarios. The results suggest that wildfires will become more frequent, more extensive, and more severe under projected climate than contemporary climate. Furthermore, projected climate change generated a 20% increase in the number of extreme fire years (years with at least 40,000 ha burned). This caused large shifts in tree species composition, characterized by a decline in the sub-alpine species (Abies lasiocarpa, Picea engelmannii, Pinus albicaulis) and increases in lowerelevation species (Pinus ponderosa, Abies grandis), resulting in forest homogenization across the elevational gradient. This modeling study suggests that climate-driven increases in fire activity and severity will make high-elevation species vulnerable to decline and will reduce landscape heterogeneity. These results underscore the need for forest managers to actively consider climate change, altered fire regimes, and projected declines in sub-alpine species in their long-term management plans

Terrestrial Laser Scan Metrics Predict Surface Vegetation Biomass and Consumption in a Frequently Burned Southeastern U.S. Ecosystem

Fire-prone landscapes found throughout the world are increasingly managed with prescribed fire for a variety of objectives. These frequent low-intensity fires directly impact lower forest strata, and thus estimating surface fuels or understory vegetation is essential for planning, evaluating, and monitoring management strategies and studying fire behavior and effects. Traditional fuel estimation methods can be applied to stand-level and canopy fuel loading; however, local-scale understory biomass remains challenging because of complex within-stand heterogeneity and fast recovery post-fire. Previous studies have demonstrated how single location terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) can be used to estimate plot-level vegetation characteristics and the impacts of prescribed fire. To build upon this methodology, co-located single TLS scans and physical biomass measurements were used to generate linear models for predicting understory vegetation and fuel biomass, as well as consumption by fire in a southeastern U.S. pineland. A variable selection method was used to select the six most important TLS-derived structural metrics for each linear model, where the model fit ranged in R2 from 0.61 to 0.74. This study highlights prospects for efficiently estimating vegetation and fuel characteristics that are relevant to prescribed burning via the integration of a single-scan TLS method that is adaptable by managers and relevant for coupled fire–atmosphere models

Development of a Survey Tool for Assessing Life Traumas and Barriers to HIV Care in a Center of Excellence for HIV/Aids in Appalachian Tennessee

Introduction: A culturally competent survey currently does not exist to characterize the burden of Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) among a HIV/AIDS population receiving care at a local Center of Excellence (COE). Methods: A qualitative study was conducted including 11 interviews involving opinions on national surveillance questions to develop a culturally competent survey. Purposive sampling, reactive probing, and analysis of transcribed interviews were completed using structured coding to determine which questions were kept, modified, or removed in the final survey. Results: The final 55-question survey contained more generalized ACE questions, topics pertaining to barriers to HIV care, and a list that patients could select from to indicate what they need to improve their HIV care. Conclusion: The final survey provided the opportunity to characterize the burden of ACEs at a COE. Future directions involve piloting the survey as a quality improvement tool with the goal of increasing retention rates through more individualized HIV care