Supplement: Going the Distance: Mapping Host Galaxies of LIGO and Virgo Sources in Three Dimensions Using Local Cosmography and Targeted Follow-up

This is a supplement to the Letter of Singer et al. (https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.07333), in which we demonstrated a rapid algorithm for obtaining joint 3D estimates of sky location and luminosity distance from observations of binary neutron star mergers with Advanced LIGO and Virgo. We argued that combining the reconstructed volumes with positions and redshifts of possible host galaxies can provide large-aperture but small field of view instruments with a manageable list of targets to search for optical or infrared emission. In this Supplement, we document the new HEALPix-based file format for 3D localizations of gravitational-wave transients. We include Python sample code to show the reader how to perform simple manipulations of the 3D sky maps and extract ranked lists of likely host galaxies. Finally, we include mathematical details of the rapid volume reconstruction algorithm.Comment: For associated data release, see http://asd.gsfc.nasa.gov/Leo.Singer/going-the-distanc

Early Advanced LIGO binary neutron-star sky localization and parameter estimation

2015 will see the first observations of Advanced LIGO and the start of the gravitational-wave (GW) advanced-detector era. One of the most promising sources for ground-based GW detectors are binary neutron-star (BNS) coalescences. In order to use any detections for astrophysics, we must understand the capabilities of our parameter-estimation analysis. By simulating the GWs from an astrophysically motivated population of BNSs, we examine the accuracy of parameter inferences in the early advanced-detector era. We find that sky location, which is important for electromagnetic follow-up, can be determined rapidly (~5 s), but that sky areas may be hundreds of square degrees. The degeneracy between component mass and spin means there is significant uncertainty for measurements of the individual masses and spins; however, the chirp mass is well measured (typically better than 0.1%).Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. Published in the proceedings of Amaldi 1

Modeling the Redshift Evolution of the Normal Galaxy X-ray Luminosity Function

Emission from X-ray binaries (XRBs) is a major component of the total X-ray luminosity of normal galaxies, so X-ray studies of high redshift galaxies allow us to probe the formation and evolution of X-ray binaries on very long timescales. In this paper, we present results from large-scale population synthesis models of binary populations in galaxies from z = 0 to 20. We use as input into our modeling the Millennium II Cosmological Simulation and the updated semi-analytic galaxy catalog by Guo et al. (2011) to self-consistently account for the star formation history (SFH) and metallicity evolution of each galaxy. We run a grid of 192 models, varying all the parameters known from previous studies to affect the evolution of XRBs. We use our models and observationally derived prescriptions for hot gas emission to create theoretical galaxy X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) for several redshift bins. Models with low CE efficiencies, a 50% twins mass ratio distribution, a steeper IMF exponent, and high stellar wind mass loss rates best match observational results from Tzanavaris & Georgantopoulos (2008), though they significantly underproduce bright early-type and very bright (Lx > 10d41) late-type galaxies. These discrepancies are likely caused by uncertainties in hot gas emission and SFHs, AGN contamination, and a lack of dynamically formed Low-mass XRBs. In our highest likelihood models, we find that hot gas emission dominates the emission for most bright galaxies. We also find that the evolution of the normal galaxy X-ray luminosity density out to z = 4 is driven largely by XRBs in galaxies with X-ray luminosities between 10d40 and 10d41 erg/s.Comment: Accepted into ApJ, 17 pages, 3 tables, 7 figures. Text updated to address referee's comment

Parameter estimation on gravitational waves from neutron-star binaries with spinning components

Inspiraling binary neutron stars are expected to be one of the most significant sources of gravitational-wave signals for the new generation of advanced ground-based detectors. We investigate how well we could hope to measure properties of these binaries using the Advanced LIGO detectors, which began operation in September 2015. We study an astrophysically motivated population of sources (binary components with masses $1.2~\mathrm{M}_\odot$--$1.6~\mathrm{M}_\odot$ and spins of less than $0.05$) using the full LIGO analysis pipeline. While this simulated population covers the observed range of potential binary neutron-star sources, we do not exclude the possibility of sources with parameters outside these ranges; given the existing uncertainty in distributions of mass and spin, it is critical that analyses account for the full range of possible mass and spin configurations. We find that conservative prior assumptions on neutron-star mass and spin lead to average fractional uncertainties in component masses of $\sim 16\%$, with little constraint on spins (the median $90\%$ upper limit on the spin of the more massive component is $\sim 0.7$). Stronger prior constraints on neutron-star spins can further constrain mass estimates, but only marginally. However, we find that the sky position and luminosity distance for these sources are not influenced by the inclusion of spin; therefore, if LIGO detects a low-spin population of BNS sources, less computationally expensive results calculated neglecting spin will be sufficient for guiding electromagnetic follow-up.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figure

Estimating the incidence, prevalence and true cost of asthma in the UK: secondary analysis of national stand-alone and linked databases in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales-a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Asthma is now one of the most common long-term conditions in the UK. It is therefore important to develop a comprehensive appreciation of the healthcare and societal costs in order to inform decisions on care provision and planning. We plan to build on our earlier estimates of national prevalence and costs from asthma by filling the data gaps previously identified in relation to healthcare and broadening the field of enquiry to include societal costs. This work will provide the first UK-wide estimates of the costs of asthma. In the context of asthma for the UK and its member countries (ie, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales), we seek to: (1) produce a detailed overview of estimates of incidence, prevalence and healthcare utilisation; (2) estimate health and societal costs; (3) identify any remaining information gaps and explore the feasibility of filling these and (4) provide insights into future research that has the potential to inform changes in policy leading to the provision of more cost-effective care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Secondary analyses of data from national health surveys, primary care, prescribing, emergency care, hospital, mortality and administrative data sources will be undertaken to estimate prevalence, healthcare utilisation and outcomes from asthma. Data linkages and economic modelling will be undertaken in an attempt to populate data gaps and estimate costs. Separate prevalence and cost estimates will be calculated for each of the UK-member countries and these will then be aggregated to generate UK-wide estimates. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approvals have been obtained from the NHS Scotland Information Services Division's Privacy Advisory Committee, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Collaboration Review System, the NHS South-East Scotland Research Ethics Service and The University of Edinburgh's Centre for Population Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee. We will produce a report for Asthma-UK, submit papers to peer-reviewed journals and construct an interactive map

Flexibility within the middle ears of vertebrates

Introduction and aims: Tympanic middle ears have evolved multiple times independently among vertebrates, and share common features. We review flexibility within tympanic middle ears and consider its physiological and clinical implications. Comparative anatomy: The chain of conducting elements is flexible: even the ‘single ossicle’ ears of most non-mammalian tetrapods are functionally ‘double ossicle’ ears due to mobile articulations between the stapes and extrastapes; there may also be bending within individual elements. Simple models: Simple models suggest that flexibility will generally reduce the transmission of sound energy through the middle ear, although in certain theoretical situations flexibility within or between conducting elements might improve transmission. The most obvious role of middle-ear flexibility is to protect the inner ear from high-amplitude displacements. Clinical implications: Inter-ossicular joint dysfunction is associated with a number of pathologies in humans. We examine attempts to improve prosthesis design by incorporating flexible components

Reconstructing grain-shape statistics from electron back-scatter diffraction microscopy

Reconstructing the three-dimensional (3D) size and shape distribution of randomly oriented grains using only images of cross sections remains an important challenge. Even for ellipsoids, a solution is only possible when they are solids of revolution, and may still be numerically unstable. Here we show that crystallographic orientation data, for example from electron back-scatter diffraction (EBSD), provides enough additional information to obtain moments of the 3D grain distribution, provided grain shapes can be assumed to align with crystal axes. We show that this moment method can give an average 3D grain size and shape (with error estimate) which is rigorous for ellipsoids and a good approximation for cuboidal grains, indicating that it may be a useful technique for polycrystalline materials in general. High throughput image analysis and EBSD now make the necessary sample sizes practical. We illustrate by applying the method to a basaltic rock specimen

Very High Resolution Solar X-ray Imaging Using Diffractive Optics

This paper describes the development of X-ray diffractive optics for imaging solar flares with better than 0.1 arcsec angular resolution. X-ray images with this resolution of the \geq10 MK plasma in solar active regions and solar flares would allow the cross-sectional area of magnetic loops to be resolved and the coronal flare energy release region itself to be probed. The objective of this work is to obtain X-ray images in the iron-line complex at 6.7 keV observed during solar flares with an angular resolution as fine as 0.1 arcsec - over an order of magnitude finer than is now possible. This line emission is from highly ionized iron atoms, primarily Fe xxv, in the hottest flare plasma at temperatures in excess of \approx10 MK. It provides information on the flare morphology, the iron abundance, and the distribution of the hot plasma. Studying how this plasma is heated to such high temperatures in such short times during solar flares is of critical importance in understanding these powerful transient events, one of the major objectives of solar physics. We describe the design, fabrication, and testing of phase zone plate X-ray lenses with focal lengths of \approx100 m at these energies that would be capable of achieving these objectives. We show how such lenses could be included on a two-spacecraft formation-flying mission with the lenses on the spacecraft closest to the Sun and an X-ray imaging array on the second spacecraft in the focal plane \approx100 m away. High resolution X-ray images could be obtained when the two spacecraft are aligned with the region of interest on the Sun. Requirements and constraints for the control of the two spacecraft are discussed together with the overall feasibility of such a formation-flying mission

Robust parameter estimation for compact binaries with ground-based gravitational-wave observations using the LALInference software library

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational wave (GW) detectors will begin operation in the coming years, with compact binary coalescence events a likely source for the first detections. The gravitational waveforms emitted directly encode information about the sources, including the masses and spins of the compact objects. Recovering the physical parameters of the sources from the GW observations is a key analysis task. This work describes the LALInference software library for Bayesian parameter estimation of compact binary signals, which builds on several previous methods to provide a well-tested toolkit which has already been used for several studies. We show that our implementation is able to correctly recover the parameters of compact binary signals from simulated data from the advanced GW detectors. We demonstrate this with a detailed comparison on three compact binary systems: a binary neutron star, a neutron star black hole binary and a binary black hole, where we show a cross-comparison of results obtained using three independent sampling algorithms. These systems were analysed with non-spinning, aligned spin and generic spin configurations respectively, showing that consistent results can be obtained even with the full 15-dimensional parameter space of the generic spin configurations. We also demonstrate statistically that the Bayesian credible intervals we recover correspond to frequentist confidence intervals under correct prior assumptions by analysing a set of 100 signals drawn from the prior. We discuss the computational cost of these algorithms, and describe the general and problem-specific sampling techniques we have used to improve the efficiency of sampling the compact binary coalescence parameter space