Forks in the Road

This Essay outlines a simple heuristic that will enable public and private policymakers to focus on the most important climate change mitigation strategies. Policymakers face a dizzying array of information, pressure from advocacy groups, and policy options, and it is easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees. Many policy options are attractive on the surface but either fail to meaningfully address the problem or are unlikely to be adopted in the foreseeable future. If policymakers make the right decision when confronting three essential choices or forks in the road, though, the result will be 60% to 70% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, an amount that will keep widely-adopted climate mitigation goals in reach. The three options are decarbonization of the electrical grid, electrification of the motor vehicle fleet, and electrification of buildings. International, national, and subnational officials, philanthropists, corporate executives, advocacy group leaders, and households all have the ability to prioritize these three options in their regulatory, purchasing, and other actions. If they choose these three decarbonatization options, many other mistakes can be made without jeopardizing the achievement of widely adopted emissions targets. If they make the wrong choice, however, few combinations of other viable options can achieve the necessary reductions. In the face of a growing consensus that immediate, major emissions reductions are required, the forks in the road heuristic can provide policymakers with the framework necessary to make smart decisions and ignore the noise surrounding climate law and policy

Beyond Wickedness: Managing Complex Systems and Climate Change

This Article examines the argument that climate change is a super wicked problem. It concludes that the wicked problem concept is best viewed as a rhetorical device that served a valuable function in arguing against technocratic hubris in the early 1970s but is unhelpful and possibly counterproductive as a tool for modern climate policy analysis. Richard Lazarus improved on this analysis by emphasizing the urgency of a climate response in his characterization of the climate problem as super wicked. We suggest another approach based on Charles Lindblom\u27s science of muddling through. The muddling through approach supports the rhetorical points for which the original wicked problem concept was introduced and provides greater practical guidance for developing new laws and policies to address climate change and other complex and messy environmental problems

The Role of Private Environmental Governance in Climate Adaption

This Article examines the role of private environmental governance (PEG) in climate change adaptation. PEG occurs when private organizations perform traditionally governmental functions such as providing public goods and reducing negative externalities. PEG initiatives that target climate change mitigation have expanded rapidly in the last decade and have been the subject of research in multiple fields, but PEG initiatives that target climate change adaptation have received less attention. As a first step, the Article develops a definition of private governance regarding climate adaptation, identifies several types of PEG adaptation initiatives, and briefly identifies research gaps

The One Percent Problem

Parties frequently seek exemption from regulation on the ground that they contribute only a very small share to a problem. These one percent arguments are not inherently questionable; it can be efficient to exclude relatively small contributors. These arguments for exemption garner broad acceptance in part because they appeal to behavioral biases that induce individuals to discount or ignore small values. But when a regulatory problem can be solved only by regulating small contributors, accepting one percent arguments creates what we call the one percent problem. This Article shows that this general problem for regulation has particularly damaging effects on climate change policy: The global character of the climate change problem renders many sources of carbon emissions candidates for one percent arguments, but the climate problem cannot be solved without attention to these sources. This Article then isolates a gap in U.S. climate policy that is critical to addressing the one percent problem for climate. Unlike many other bodies, Congress currently legislates and appropriates without calculating the emissions consequences of its actions or adhering to an emissions budget. Both are necessary. Congress has long responded to one percent problems in managing the federal budget with disclosure and offsetting requirements. Requiring Congress to disclose the carbon emissions of legislation treats carbon costs on par with financial costs, and brings Congress’s emissions disclosure duties in line with those that already apply to federal agencies and many industrial sources. Adopting a budgeting pre-commitment strategy of last resort - a carbon pay-as-you-go rule - directly confronts the analytic slippage exploited by one percent arguments

Essay: Forks In the Road

This Essay outlines a simple heuristic that will enable public and private policymakers to focus on the most important climate change mitigation strategies. Policymakers face a dizzying array of information, pressure from advocacy groups, and policy options, and it is easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees. Many policy options are attractive on the surface but either fail to meaningfully address the problem or are unlikely to be adopted in the foreseeable future. If policymakers make the right decision when confronting three essential choices or forks in the road, though, the result will be 60% to 70% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, an amount that will keep widely-adopted climate mitigation goals in reach. The three options are decarbonization of the electrical grid, electrification of the motor vehicle fleet, and electrification of buildings. International, national, and subnational officials, philanthropists, corporate executives, advocacy group leaders, and households all have the ability to prioritize these three options in their regulatory, purchasing, and other actions. If they choose these three decarbonatization options, many other mistakes can be made without jeopardizing the achievement of widely adopted emissions targets. If they make the wrong choice, however, few combinations of other viable options can achieve the necessary reductions. In the face of a growing consensus that immediate, major emissions reductions are required, the forks in the road heuristic can provide policymakers with the framework necessary to make smart decisions and ignore the noise surrounding climate law and policy

The New Revolving Door

This Article demonstrates that a new revolving door is emerging between environmental-advocacy groups and the private sector. Since the birth of the modern regulatory state, scholars have raised concerns that the revolving door between corporations and government agencies could induce government officials to pursue corporate interests rather than the public interest. The legal and political-science literatures have identified several benefits that may arise from the revolving door, but the thrust of the scholarship to date has emphasized the potential harms. Using several data sources, we demonstrate that as the private sector has begun to play an increasing role in environmental governance in recent years, a new revolving door has emerged between environmental-advocacy groups and corporations, institutional investment firms, and private equity firms. We demonstrate that this new revolving door is surprisingly common, and we examine the implications for the future of public and private environmental governance. Although this new revolving door creates new risks, we argue that it may turn on its head the central concern about the revolving door: The movement of environmental advocates into corporate management positions may play the role of greening corporate behavior and may accelerate the development of private environmental initiatives. We focus on the movement of employees in the environmental area a new green revolving door but we suggest that this new revolving door also may be emerging in labor, health and safety, and other regulatory areas

Energy and Climate Change: Key Lessons for Implementing the Behavioral Wedge

The individual and household sector accounts for roughly 40 percent of United States energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, yet the laws and policies directed at reductions from this sector often reflect a remarkably simplistic model of behavior. This Essay addresses one of the obstacles to achieving a “behavioral wedge” of individual and household emissions reductions: the lack of an accessible, brief summary for policymakers of the key findings of behavioral and social science studies on household energy behavior. The Essay does not provide a comprehensive overview of the field, but it discusses many of the leading studies that demonstrate the extent and limits of rational action. These studies can inform lawyers and policymakers who are developing measures to reduce energy use and carbon emissions and can serve as an entry point for more detailed studies of the literature. An effective response to the climate change problem will require substantial reductions in energy demand in addition to new developments in low-carbon energy supplies. The individual and household sector presents a major opportunity: the sector accounts for roughly 40% of U.S. carbon emissions and a comparable percentage of total U.S. energy production, and it is one of the most promising areas for reducing emissions. A recent analysis estimates that behavioral measures directed at this sector could reasonably be expected to reduce total US emissions by over 7% by 2020, an amount larger than the combined emissions from several of the largest-emitting industrial sectors and larger than the total emissions of France. In many cases, these emissions reductions can be achieved at less cost than the leading alternatives. Despite this opportunity, recent regulatory and policy efforts are only beginning to direct substantial attention to the individual and household sector. Findings from the social sciences provide valuable insights into how to capitalize on this opportunity, yet policymakers often have little time to develop new polices and are confronted with a barrage of often-conflicting approaches and theories. This Essay addresses the policy-making challenge by distilling the findings from a broad range of fields into several key principles for those developing energy and climate laws and policies. The principles we outline here are a starting point for policymakers working in this area. We attempt to provide insight into which principles are most relevant to law and policy, but instructions as to how to incorporate these principles are beyond the scope of this essay. The principles include only a subset of the insights from the behavioral and social science literature. In many cases, adherence to multiple principles will be necessary to develop the most effective policy design. Policymakers should consult the body of work referenced here, as well as experts in the social sciences to further their understanding of these and other principles. More extensive reviews of this literature and its relevance to energy and climate policy are also available

NGC 2419, M92, and the Age Gradient in the Galactic Halo

The WFPC2 camera on HST has been used to obtain deep main sequence photometry of the low-metallicity ([Fe/H]=-2.14), outer-halo globular cluster NGC 2419. A differential fit of the NGC 2419 CMD to that of the similarly metal-poor \ standard cluster M92 shows that they have virtually identical principal sequences and thus the same age to well within 1 Gyr. Since other low-metallicity clusters throughout the Milky Way halo have this same age to within the 1-Gyr precision of the differential age technique, we conclude that the earliest star (or globular cluster) formation began at essentially the same time everywhere in the Galactic halo throughout a region now almost 200 kpc in diameter. Thus for the metal-poorest clusters in the halo there is no detectable age gradient with Galactocentric distance. To estimate the absolute age of NGC 2419 and M92, we fit newly computed isochrones transformed through model-atmosphere calculations to the (M_V,V-I) plane, with assumed distance scales that represent the range currently debated in the literature. Unconstrained isochrone fits give M_V(RR) = 0.55 \pm 0.06 and a resulting age of 14 to 15 Gyr. Incorporating the full effects of helium diffusion would further reduce this estimate by about 1 Gyr. A distance scale as bright as M_V(RR) = 0.15 for [Fe/H] = -2, as has recently been reported, would leave several serious problems which have no obvious solution in the context of current stellar models.Comment: 32 pages, aastex, 9 postscript figures; accepted for publication in AJ, September 1997. Also available by e-mail from [email protected]

Vancomycin versus Placebo for Treating Persistent Fever in Patients with Neutropenic Cancer Receiving Piperacillin-Tazobactam Monotherapy

This prospective, double-blind trial assessed whether the addition of a glycopeptide would be able to reduce the time to defervescence in neutropenic patients with cancer who had persistent fever 48-60 h after the initiation of empirical piperacillin-tazobactam monotherapy. Of 763 eligible patients, 165 with persistent fever were randomized to receive piperacillin-tazobactam therapy plus either vancomycin therapy or placebo. Defervescence was observed in 82 (95%) of 86 patients in the vancomycin group and in 73 (92%) of 79 patients in the placebo group (P = .52). The distributions of the time to defervescence were not statistically significant between the 2 groups (estimated hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-1.43; P = .75). The number of additional episodes of gram-positive bacteremia and the percentage of patients for whom amphotericin B was empirically added to their therapy regimen were also similar in both groups. This study failed to demonstrate that the empirical addition of vancomycin therapy to the treatment regimen is of benefit to persistently febrile neutropenic patients with cance

Maternal effects on anogenital distance in a wild marmot population

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