Modelling Grazing and Burning in Communal Rangelands to Help Understand Trade-offs between Production, Carbon, and Water

Rangelands cover more than 80% of South Africa’s land area, providing critical ecosystem services, livelihoods and cultural values related to livestock. Communally owned rangelands are often overgrazed and subject to runaway fires but lack of data limits our understanding of how these threats impact production. In this transdisciplinary project, we use models to test hypotheses and predict future scenarios as a planning tool for resource-poor communal farmers. We think that moderate grazing and fire regimes will increase overall production and carbon sequestration with uncertain trade-offs for water and nutrient cycling. To test this, we trained two process-based biogeochemical models (DAYCENT and SPACSYS) with individual merits to simulate known fire returns and grazing pressures on a 40-year old long-term ecological research grassland site, and validated models with data from Mvenyane, a nearby communal livestock grazing area. DAYCENT and SPACSYS simulated observed soil organic carbon well, while accuracy for aboveground herbaceous biomass differed between models. DAYCENT projected that soil organic carbon could increase by ca. 1000 g C m-2 over ten years or 1 t C ha-1 yr-1 with moderate increases in biomass and no change in water fluxes when changing from continuous high pressure to moderate pressure grazing in a two-camp rotation, with or without fire. These and other scenarios, including future climate projections, will be used to evaluate biophysical and social trade-offs so that sustainable land use plans can be created in Mvenyane and the wider rangeland community

3D gravity data-space inversion with sparseness and bound constraints

Abstract One of the most remarkable basis of the gravity data inversion is the recognition of sharp boundaries between an ore body and its host rocks during the interpretation step. Therefore, in this work, it is attempted to develop an inversion approach to determine a 3D density distribution that produces a given gravity anomaly. The subsurface model consists of a 3D rectangular prisms of known sizes and positions and unknown density contrasts that are required to be estimated. The proposed inversion scheme incorporates the Cauchy norm as a model norm that imposes sparseness and the depth weighting of the solution. A physicalbound constraint is enforced using a generic transformation of the model parameters. The inverse problem is posed in the data space, leading to a smaller dimensional linear system of equations to be solved and a reduction in the computation time. For more efficiency, the low-dimensional linear system of equations is solved using a fast iterative method such as Lanczos Bidiagonalization. The tests carried out on the synthetic data show that the sparse data-space inversion produces blocky and focused solutions. The results obtained for the 3D inversion of the field gravity data (Mobrun gravity data) indicate that the sparse data-space inversion could produce the density models consistent with the true structures

Calibration of Free-Space Radiometric Partial Discharge Measurements

The present study addresses the calibration of four types of partial discharge (PD) emulators used in the development of a PD Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Three PD emulators have been constructed: a floating-electrode emulator, and two internal PD emulators. Both DC and AC high-voltage power supplies are used to initiate PD, which is measured using concurrent free-space radiometry (FSR) and a galvanic contact method based on the IEC 60270 standard. The emulators have been measured and simulated, and a good agreement has been found for the radiated fields. A new method of estimating the absolute PD activity level from radiometric measurements is proposed

Shear Wave Splitting Analysis to Estimate Fracture Orientation and Frequency Dependent Anisotropy

Shear wave splitting is a well-known method for indication of orientation, radius, and length of fractures in subsurface layers. In this paper, a three component near offset VSP data acquired from a fractured sandstone reservoir in southern part of Iran was used to analyse shear wave splitting and frequency-dependent anisotropy assessment. Polarization angle obtained by performing rotation on radial and transverse components of VSP data was used to determine the direction of polarization of fast shear wave which corresponds to direction of fractures. It was shown that correct implementation of shear wave splitting analysis can be used for determination of fracture direction. During frequency- dependent anisotropy analysis, it was found that the time delays in shear- waves decrease as the frequency increases. It was clearly demonstrated throughout this study that anisotropy may have an inverse relationship with frequency. The analysis presented in this paper complements the studied conducted by other researchers in this field of research

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify

Shear wave velocity prediction using seismic attributes and well log data

Formation’s properties can be estimated indirectly using joint analysis of compressional and shear wave velocities. Shear wave data isnot usually acquired during well logging, which is most likely for costsaving purposes. Even if shear data is available, the logging programs provide only sparsely sampled one-dimensional measurements: this informationis inadequate to estimate reservoir rock properties. Thus, if the shear wave data can be obtained using seismic methods, the results can be used across the field to estimate reservoir properties. The aim of this paper is to use seismic attributes for prediction of shear wave velocity in a field located in southern part of Iran. Independent component analysis(ICA) was used to select the most relevant attributes to shear velocity data. Considering the nonlinear relationship between seismic attributes and shear wave velocity, multi-layer feed forward neural network was used for prediction of shear wave velocity and promising results were presented

The global, regional, and national burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Worldwide, both the incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer are increasing. Evaluation of pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policy making and better resource allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and more effective treatments. Methods: Vital registration, vital registration sample, and cancer registry data were used to generate mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer: smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. All of the estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were reported for all estimates. Findings: In 2017, there were 448 000 (95% UI 439 000\u2013456 000) incident cases of pancreatic cancer globally, of which 232 000 (210 000\u2013221 000; 51\ub79%) were in males. The age-standardised incidence rate was 5\ub70 (4\ub79\u20135\ub71) per 100 000 person-years in 1990 and increased to 5\ub77 (5\ub76\u20135\ub78) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. There was a 2\ub73 times increase in number of deaths for both sexes from 196 000 (193 000\u2013200 000) in 1990 to 441 000 (433 000\u2013449 000) in 2017. There was a 2\ub71 times increase in DALYs due to pancreatic cancer, increasing from 4\ub74 million (4\ub73\u20134\ub75) in 1990 to 9\ub71 million (8\ub79\u20139\ub73) in 2017. The age-standardised death rate of pancreatic cancer was highest in the high-income super-region across all years from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in Greenland (17\ub74 [15\ub78\u201319\ub70] per 100 000 person-years) and Uruguay (12\ub71 [10\ub79\u201313\ub75] per 100 000 person-years). These countries also had the highest age-standardised death rates in 1990. Bangladesh (1\ub79 [1\ub75\u20132\ub73] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 2017, and S\ue3o Tom\ue9 and Pr\uedncipe (1\ub73 [1\ub71\u20131\ub75] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 1990. The numbers of incident cases and deaths peaked at the ages of 65\u201369 years for males and at 75\u201379 years for females. Age-standardised pancreatic cancer deaths worldwide were primarily attributable to smoking (21\ub71% [18\ub78\u201323\ub77]), high fasting plasma glucose (8\ub79% [2\ub71\u201319\ub74]), and high body-mass index (6\ub72% [2\ub75\u201311\ub74]) in 2017. Interpretation: Globally, the number of deaths, incident cases, and DALYs caused by pancreatic cancer has more than doubled from 1990 to 2017. The increase in incidence of pancreatic cancer is likely to continue as the population ages. Prevention strategies should focus on modifiable risk factors. Development of screening programmes for early detection and more effective treatment strategies for pancreatic cancer are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The German Music@Home: Validation of a questionnaire measuring at home musical exposure and interaction of young children.

The present study introduces the German version of the original version of the Music@Home questionnaire developed in the UK, which systematically evaluates musical engagement in the home environment of young children. Two versions are available, an Infant version for children aged three to 23 months and a Preschool version for children aged two to five and a half years. For the present study, the original Music@Home questionnaire was translated from English into German and 656 caregivers completed the questionnaire online. A confirmatory factor analysis showed moderate to high fit indices for both versions, confirming the factor structure of the original questionnaire. Also, the reliability coefficients for the subscales (Parental beliefs, Child engagement with music, Parent initiation of singing, Parent initiation of music-making for the Infant version and Parental beliefs, Child engagement with music, Parent initiation of music behavior and Breadth of musical exposure for the Preschool version) ranged from moderate to high fits. Furthermore, the test-retest analysis (N = 392) revealed high correlations for the general factor and all subscales confirming their internal reliability. Additionally, we included language questionnaires for children of two and three years of age. Results showed that higher scores on the Music@Home questionnaire were moderately associated with better language skills in two-year-olds (N = 118). In sum, the study presents the validated German Music@Home questionnaire, which shows good psychometric properties. The two versions of the questionnaire are available for use in order to assess home musical engagement of young children, which could be of interest in many areas of developmental research

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15–39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15–39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11–1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000–425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15–39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5–65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8–57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9–15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6–14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9–25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9–3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4–98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute