Exchange rate volatility and exports: the case of emerging East Asian economies.

This thesis provides an empirical analysis of the impact of exchange rate volatility on the exports of five emerging East and South East Asian economies; China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. The countries under consideration are the main members of the impending ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), and the options for a closer monetary integration including proposais for the eventual formation of a currency union within the region are currently an active area of research and policy debate. Therefore, an understanding of the degree to which exchange rate volatility affects their export activity is important for setting the optimal exchange rate policy in emerging East Asian countries. Recognizing the specificity of the exports of the sample countries which is different from those of industrialised countries this study employs an augmented generalised gravity model instead of a pure gravity model. A GMM-IV approach is used to overcome the potential econometric problems of endogeneity and heteroskedasticity. In addition, this study is the first to conduct the recently developed panel unit-root and cointegration tests to verify the existence of a long-run stationary relationship between real exports and exchange-rate volatility. The benchmark measure of the exchange rate volatility which represents uncertainty is the standard deviation of the first difference of the logarithmic exchange rate. In order to check the robustness of the results two additional measures of exchange rate volatility - the moving average standard deviation of the logarithmic exchange rate (MASD) and the conditional exchange rate volatility which follows a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedascity process (GARCH) are also used to estimate the model. The results provide a strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has an economically and statistically significant negative impact not only on the overall exports to the world market but also on the intra-regional exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results indicate that the adverse effect of exchange rate volatility on exports is not a linear and is conditional on the financial sector development of the exporting country: the more financially developed an economy is, the less its exports are adversely affected by exchange rate volatility. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. In conclusion, the results of the thesis suggest that whilst exchange rate flexibility has desirable properties as a 'shock absorber' to dampen the impact of real shocks, on average it still has an adverse effect on the exports of the emerging East Asian countries, and the impact is more severe on a financially less developed economy

Exchange rate volatility and exports: new empirical evidence from the emerging East Asian economies.

This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries. We recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit-root and cointegration tests to verify the long-run relationship among the variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third-country variables. An increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging East Asian countries has a negative impact on a country’s exports to a destination market, but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. The results of the GMM-IV estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias

Surviving the COVID-19 pandemic: the antecedents of success among European SMEs

We research the antecedents of relative success among SMEs in avoiding temporary or permanent closure during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate the roles of firm-specific resources and state support policies in influencing SME fortunes, in a sizeable group of European countries covered in the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES). Using resource dependency, Varieties of Capitalism and Systems theories, we find that innovative capacities, institutional connectedness, governance and management experience were major antecedents of success across all SMEs. Significant differences in outcomes were found between SMEs operating in old and new EU member states, and non-EU countries. Keywords: Enterprise survival, innovativeness, COVID-19, World Bank Enterprise Survey, SMEs, government suppor

Space Station communications and tracking systems modeling and RF link simulation

In this final report, the effort spent on Space Station Communications and Tracking System Modeling and RF Link Simulation is described in detail. The effort is mainly divided into three parts: frequency division multiple access (FDMA) system simulation modeling and software implementation; a study on design and evaluation of a functional computerized RF link simulation/analysis system for Space Station; and a study on design and evaluation of simulation system architecture. This report documents the results of these studies. In addition, a separate User's Manual on Space Communications Simulation System (SCSS) (Version 1) documents the software developed for the Space Station FDMA communications system simulation. The final report, SCSS user's manual, and the software located in the NASA JSC system analysis division's VAX 750 computer together serve as the deliverables from LinCom for this project effort

Structure-based design of antivirals against Envelope Glycoprotein of dengue virus

Dengue virus (DENV) presents a significant threat to global public health with more than 500,000 hospitalizations and 25,000 deaths annually. Currently, there is no clinically approved antiviral drug to treat DENV infection. The envelope (E) glycoprotein of DENV is a promising target for drug discovery as the E protein is important for viral attachment and fusion. Understanding the structure and function of DENV E protein has led to the exploration of structure-based drug discovery of antiviral compounds and peptides against DENV infections. This review summarizes the structural information of the DENV E protein with regards to DENV attachment and fusion. The information enables the development of antiviral agents through structure-based approaches. In addition, this review compares the potency of antivirals targeting the E protein with the antivirals targeting DENV multifunctional enzymes, repurposed drugs and clinically approved antiviral drugs. None of the current DENV antiviral candidates possess potency similar to the approved antiviral drugs which indicates that more efforts and resources must be invested before an effective DENV drug materializes

Antiviral activity of silymarin in comparison with baicalein against EV-A71

Background: The hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a febrile and exanthematous childhood disease mainly caused by Enterovirus 71 (EV-A71). In severe HFMD, virulent EV-A71 strains can cause acute flaccid paralysis and cardiopulmonary edema leading to death. Currently, no FDA approved antiviral treatment or vaccine is available for EV-A71. Flavonoids such as silymarin and baicalein are known to possess in vitro antiviral properties against viruses. In this study, the cytotoxicity and antiviral activity of silymarin, baicalein and baicalin were investigated. Methods: The cytotoxic effects of three flavonoids towards rhabdomyosarcoma (RD) cells were first examined using cell proliferation MTS [3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-5-(3-carboxymethoxyphenyl)-2-(4-sulfophenyl)-2H-tetrazolium] assay. Compounds found to be non-cytotoxic in RD cells were evaluated for their in vitro antiviral properties against the EVA71 subgenotype B4 strain 41 (5865/SIN/000009) using antiviral assays. Viral infectivity was determined by reduction of the formation of plaques in RD cells. For the measurement of RNA copy number, the real time quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) was used. The most potent compound was further evaluated to determine the mode of action of inhibition by time course, virus attachment and entry assays in Vero cells. Results: Silymarin was shown to exert direct extracellular virucidal effects against EV-A71 at 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) of 15.2 ± 3.53 μg/mL with SI of 10.53. Similarly, baicalein exhibited direct extracellular virucidal effects against EV-A71 at a higher IC50 value of 30.88 ± 5.50 μg/mL with SI of 13.64. Besides virucidal activity, silymarin was shown to block both viral attachment and entry of EV-A71 to inhibit infection in Vero cells. Conclusions: Silymarin has a stronger inhibition activity against EV-A71 in comparison to baicalein. It could serve as a promising antiviral drug to treat EV-A71 infections

Assessing Malaysian crowdsourcing platforms using web of system performance (WOSP) model

Crowdsourcing allows organizations and individuals to tap into a large pool of people to accomplish tasks. Recent growth in crowdsourcing has triggered Malaysia to venture into crowdsourcing initiatives. This study intends to assess the performance of crowdsourcing platforms in Malaysia using the Web of System Performance (WOSP) model.The results give insights on the current state of crowdsourcing platforms in Malaysia and highlight the gaps that exist in these platforms. This eventually help to enhance the design of current platforms and promote higher uptake of crowdsourcing among Malaysians

The Efficiency of Gas-Kinetic BGK scheme for solving 2-d compressible inviscid regular shock reflection problem

In this paper, the 1st and 2nd order gas-kinetic BGK scheme is developed and tested for its ability in solving the two-dimensional compressible inviscid flow fields. The BGK (Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook) scheme uses the collisional Boltzmann equation as the governing equation for flow evolutions. Second-order BGK scheme is also developed for flow simulation. This is achieved by means of reconstructing the initial data via MUSCL (Monotone Upstream-Centered Schemes for Conservation Laws) method. In addition, a multisage TVD (Total Variation Diminishing) Runge-Kutta method is employed for the time integration of the finite volume gas-kinetic scheme. A typical two-dimensional regular reflection of an oblique shock wave from a solid surface is chosen for testing the accuracy and robustness of the BGK scheme. The computational results are validated against the numerical results of Roe’s scheme

High-Dose Inactivated Influenza Vaccine is Associated with Cost Savings and Better Outcomes Compared to Standard-Dose Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Canadian Seniors

Seasonal influenza infects approximately 10-20% of Canadians each year, causing an estimated 12,200 hospitalizations and 3,500 deaths annually, mostly occurring in adults ≥65 years old (seniors). A 32,000-participant, randomized controlled clinical trial (FIM12; Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01427309) showed that high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV-HD) is superior to standard-dose vaccine (SD) in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza illness in seniors. In this study, we performed a cost-utility analysis (CUA) of IIV-HD versus SD in FIM12 participants from a Canadian perspective. Healthcare resource utilization data collected in FIM12 included: medications, non-routine/urgent care and emergency room visits, and hospitalizations. Unit costs were applied using standard Canadian cost sources to estimate the mean direct medical and societal costs associated with each vaccine (2014 CAD). Clinical illness data from the trial were mapped to quality-of-life data from the literature to estimate differences in effectiveness between vaccines. Time horizon was one influenza season, however, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost due to death during the study were captured over a lifetime. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was also performed. Average per-participant medical costs were $47 lower and societal costs$60 lower in the IIV-HD arm. Hospitalizations contributed 91% of the total cost and were less frequent in the IIV-HD arm. IIV-HD provided a gain in QALYs and, due to cost savings, dominated SD in the CUA. The PSA indicated that IIV-HD is 89% likely to be cost saving. In Canada, IIV-HD is expected to be a less costly and more effective alternative to SD, driven by a reduction in hospitalizations

The Effect of Individual Movements and Interventions on the Spread of Influenza in Long-Term Care Facilities

Background. Nosocomial influenza poses a serious risk among residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Objective. We sought to evaluate the effect of resident and staff movements and contact patterns on the outcomes of various intervention strategies for influenza control in an LTCF. Methods. We collected contact frequency data in Canada's largest veterans' LTCF by enroling residents and staff into a study that tracked their movements through wireless tags and signal receivers. We analyzed and fitted the data to an agent-based simulation model of influenza infection, and performed Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the benefit of antiviral prophylaxis and patient isolation added to standard (baseline) infection control practice (i.e., vaccination of residents and staff, plus antiviral treatment of residents with symptomatic infection). Results. We calibrated the model to attack rates of 20%, 40%, and 60% for the baseline scenario. For data-driven movements, we found that the largest reduction in attack rates (12.5% to 27%; ANOVA P 0.2) among residents. In contrast, parameterizing the model with random movements yielded different results, suggesting that the highest benefit was achieved through patient isolation (69.6% to 79.6%; ANOVA P <0.001) while the additional benefit of prophylaxis was negligible in reducing the cumulative number of infections. Conclusions. Our study revealed a highly structured contact and movement patterns within the LTCF. Accounting for this structureinstead of assuming randomnessin decision analytic methods can result in substantially different predictions