Seawater cadmium in the Florida Straits over the Holocene and implications for Upper AMOC variability

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 37, (2022): e2021PA004379, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021pa004379.Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a central role in the global redistribution of heat and precipitation during both abrupt and longer-term climate shifts. Over the next century, AMOC is projected to weaken due to greenhouse gas warming, though projecting its future behavior is dependent on a better understanding of how AMOC changes are forced. Seeking to resolve an apparent contradiction of AMOC trends from paleorecords of the more recent past, we reconstruct seawater cadmium, a nutrient-like tracer, in the Florida Straits over the last ∼8,000 years, with emphasis on the last millennium. The gradual reduction in seawater Cd over the last 8,000 years could be due to a reduction in AMOC, consistent with cooling Northern Hemisphere temperatures and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. However, it is difficult to reconcile this finding with evidence for an increase in geostrophic flow through the Florida Straits over the same time period. We combine data from intermediate water depth sediment cores to extend this record into the Common Era at sufficient resolution to address the broad scale changes of this time period. There is a small decline in the Cd concentration in the Late Little Ice Age relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly, but this change was much smaller than the changes observed over the Holocene and on the deglaciation. This suggests that any trend in the strength of AMOC over the last millennium must have been very subtle.This work was funded by the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship DGE-1148903 (SV) and NSF grant OCE-1459563 and OCE-1851900 (JLS)

Central Equatorial Pacific Cooling During the Last Glacial Maximum

Establishing tropical sea surface temperature (SST) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is important for constraining equilibrium climate sensitivity to radiative forcing. Until now, there has been little data from the central equatorial Pacific in global compilations, with foraminiferal assemblage‐based estimates suggesting the region was within 1°C of modern temperatures during the LGM. This is in stark contrast to multi‐proxy evidence from the eastern and western Pacific and model simulations which support larger cooling. Here we present the first estimates of glacial SST in the central equatorial Pacific from Mg/Ca in Globigerinoides ruber. Our results show that the central Pacific cooled by about 2.0°C during the LGM, in contrast with previous global compilations but in agreement with models. Our data support a larger magnitude of tropical LGM cooling, and thus a larger equilibrium climate sensitivity, than previous studies which relied on foraminiferal assemblages in the central tropical Pacific

Constraints on the salinity–oxygen isotope relationship in the central tropical Pacific Ocean

Uncertainties surround the relationship between salinity and the stable isotopic composition of seawater, largely due to a dearth of modern seawater isotope data. Here we report 191 new, paired measurements of salinity and seawater oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁸O_sw) taken from the central tropical Pacific in May 2012, from the surface to 4600 m depth. We observe significant correlations between δ¹⁸O_sw and salinity across the study region, with slopes ranging from 0.23 to 0.31‰/psu for the mixed layer, and 0.35–0.42‰/psu for waters between the mixed layer and 500 m depth. When considering δ¹⁸O_sw–salinity across averages of individual water masses in the region, slopes range from 0.21 to 0.40‰/psu, albeit with appreciable scatter. Surface salinity and δ¹⁸O_sw data corresponding to the North Equatorial Countercurrent are significantly higher than previously observed, which we attribute to a weak westerly current and dry conditions in the region during the May 2012 cruise. Subsurface (80–500 m) salinity values from 2012 are significantly lower than corresponding values from pre-existing regional data, highlighting a different latitudinal sampling distribution, while subsurface δ¹⁸O_sw is not significantly different. Thus, in May 2012, δ¹⁸O_sw in this region could not be used to distinguish between subsurface water masses of different salinities. Unlike other regions where the surface ‘freshwater endmember’ is close to the δ¹⁸O value of regional precipitation, the freshwater endmember implied by our dataset (− 10.38‰) is consistent with a strong evaporative influence. Paired δ¹⁸O–δD values of precipitation and surface seawaters have similar slopes (5.0, 5.1), and relatively low intercepts (1.4, 0.8) indicating isotopic variability in both reservoirs is also partly controlled by evaporation

Estuarine Processes and Their Stratigraphic Record: Paleosalinity and Sedimentation Changes in the Hudson Estuary (North America)

Paleosalinity estimates and rates of sedimentation inferred from core samples from the Hudson estuary for the interval between 6.4 and 1.3 ka indicate a possible role for the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) in influencing patterns of estuarine sedimentation at centennial to millennial time scales. Currently in the estuary, sedimentation is localized via sediment trapping particularly in the vicinity of the ETM, 13–26 km upstream from Battery Park (FBP) at the southern tip of Manhattan, in water depths greater than 4 m, and on the western side of the estuary. Data presented in this paper are from cores located within the segment of the estuary 29–50 km FBP. Age constraints are provided by C-14 dating. Paleoenvironmental interpretations are based upon paleosalinity estimates, grain size variability, and sedimentary structures. Paleosalinity was inferred on the basis of foraminiferal biofacies analysis and a new method for estimating summertime paleosalinity using oxygen isotope measurements in bivalve shell material. The isotopic analysis of a narrow size fraction (1.0–1.7 mm) representing summer growth of a single bivalve species (Gemma gemma) reduces the uncertainty related to annual changes in temperature. Data from ∼45 km FBP indicate a gradual decrease in summertime paleosalinity between 6.4 and 2.0 ka from 25–20‰ to 15–10‰ (the latter is similar to present-day values). These results are consistent with the conclusion of an earlier low-resolution study. Sedimentation rates are generally low and are similar to the rate of sea-level rise in the Hudson River. Lowest sedimentation rates are noted in short (lower than 2 m) cores from north of the Tappan Zee Bridge (40–50 km FBP from 2.4 ka to present); in shallow water (∼2 m at mean low water, core SD-11) ∼45 km FBP; and on the eastern side of the estuary from ∼50 to 29 km FBP. Exceptions are high sedimentation rates (up to four times background) observed in cores from the western flats (SD 30, ∼45 km FBP, 4.9 to 3.4 ka) in water depths of 4 m and from the western part of the main channel (P21.7 core, ∼32 km FBP, greater than 2.3 to ∼1.3 ka). We hypothesize that the observed pattern in sediment accumulation relates to a location for the ETM some 20 km upstream of its present position at 3 ka. Downstream migration of the ETM since 3 ka is ascribed to shoaling of the estuary, effectively squeezing the marine saltwater wedge in the same direction, and off marginal flats into the channel. Such shoaling would have enhanced the role of waves in mixing marine and fresher surface water, and reduced the effect of the ETM in focusing sediment accumulation. The results of this study are consistent with the idea that at any time, estuarine sedimentation is highly localized, suggesting a more complex depositional pattern than previously indicated in estuarine stratigraphic models

Northern Borneo stalagmite records reveal West Pacific hydroclimate across MIS 5 and 6

Over the past decades, tropical stalagmite δ^(18)O records have provided valuable insight on glacial and interglacial hydrological variability and its relationship to a variety of natural climate forcings. The transition out of the penultimate glaciation (MIS 6) represents an important target for tropical hydroclimate reconstructions, yet relatively few such reconstructions resolve this transition. Particularly, comparisons between Termination 1 and 2 provide critical insight on the extent and influence of proposed climate mechanisms determined from paleorecords and model experiments spanning the recent deglaciation. Here we present a new compilation of western tropical Pacific hydrology spanning 0–160 ky BP, constructed from eleven different U/Th-dated stalagmite δ^(18)O records from Gunung Mulu National Park in northern Borneo. The reconstruction exhibits significant precessional power in phase with boreal fall insolation strength over the 0–160 ky BP period, identifying precessional insolation forcing as the dominant driver of hydroclimate variability in northern Borneo on orbital timescales. A comparison with a network of paleoclimate records from the circum-Pacific suggests the insolation sensitivity may arise from changes in the Walker circulation system. Distinct millennial-scale increases in stalagmite δ^(18)O, indicative of reduced regional convection, occur within glacial terminations and may reflect a response to shifts in inter-hemispheric temperature gradients. Our results imply that hydroclimate in this region is sensitive to external forcing, with a response dominated by large-scale temperature gradients

Assessing reconstruction techniques of the Atlantic Ocean circulation variability during the last millennium

We assess the use of the meridional thermal-wind transport estimated from zonal density gradients to reconstruct the oceanic circulation variability during the last millennium in a forced simulation with the ECHO-G coupled climate model. Following a perfect-model approach, model-based pseudo-reconstructions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Florida Current volume transport (FCT) are evaluated against their true simulated variability. The pseudo-FCT is additionally verified as proxy for AMOC strength and compared with the available proxy-based reconstruction. The thermal-wind component reproduces most of the simulated AMOC variability, which is mostly driven by internal climate dynamics during the preindustrial period and by increasing greenhouse gases afterwards. The pseudo-reconstructed FCT reproduces well the simulated FCT and reasonably well the variability of the AMOC strength, including the response to external forcing. The pseudo-reconstructed FCT, however, underestimates/overestimates the simulated variability at deep/shallow levels. Density changes responsible for the pseudo-reconstructed FCT are mainly driven by zonal temperature differences; salinity differences oppose but play a minor role. These results thus support the use of the thermal-wind relationship to reconstruct the oceanic circulation past variability, in particular at multidecadal timescales. Yet model-data comparison highlights important differences between the simulated and the proxy-based FCT variability. ECHO-G simulates a prominent weakening in the North Atlantic circulation that contrasts with the reconstructed enhancement. Our model results thus do not support the reconstructed FC minimum during the Little Ice Age. This points to a failure in the reconstruction, misrepresented processes in the model, or an important role of internal ocean dynamics

The tropical response to extratropical thermal forcing in an idealized GCM: The importance of radiative feedbacks and convective parameterization

The response of tropical precipitation to extratropical thermal forcing is reexamined using an idealized moist atmospheric GCM that has no water vapor or cloud feedbacks, simplifying the analysis while retaining the aquaplanet configuration coupled to a slab ocean from the authors' previous study. As in earlier studies, tropical precipitation in response to high-latitude forcing is skewed toward the warmed hemisphere. Comparisons with a comprehensive GCM in an identical aquaplanet, mixed-layer framework reveal that the tropical responses tend to be much larger in the comprehensive GCM as a result of positive cloud and water vapor feedbacks that amplify the imposed extratropical thermal forcing. The magnitude of the tropical precipitation response in the idealized model is sensitive to convection scheme parameters. This sensitivity as well as the tropical precipitation response can be understood from a simple theory with two ingredients: the changes in poleward energy fluxes are predicted using a onedimensional energy balance model and a measure of the "total gross moist stability" [??m, which is defined as the total (mean plus eddy) atmospheric energy transport per unit mass transport] of the model tropics converts the energy flux change into a mass flux and a moisture flux change. The idealized model produces a low level of compensation of about 25% between the imposed oceanic flux and the resulting response in the atmospheric energy transport in the tropics regardless of the convection scheme parameter. Because Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model 2 (AM2) with prescribed clouds and water vapor exhibits a similarly low level of compensation, it is argued that roughly 25% of the compensation is dynamically controlled through eddy energy fluxes. The sensitivity of the tropical response to the convection scheme in the idealized model results from different values of ??m: smaller ??m leads to larger tropical precipitation changes for the same response in the energy transport.open624

Enhanced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of similar to 20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is similar to 25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.Plain Language Summary Recent modeling studies suggest that El Nino will intensify due to greenhouse warming. Here new coral reconstructions of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) record sustained, significant changes in ENSO variability over the last 7,000 years and imply that ENSO extremes of the last 50 years are significantly stronger than those of the preindustrial era in the central tropical Pacific. These records suggest that El Nino events already may be intensifying due to anthropogenic climate change

Comparison of observed and general circulation model derived continental subsurface heat flux in the Northern Hemisphere

Heat fluxes in the continental subsurface were estimated from general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the climate of the last millennium and compared to those obtained from subsurface geothermal data. Since GCMs have bottom boundary conditions (BBCs) that are less than 10 m deep and thus may be thermodynamically restricted in the continental subsurface, we used an idealized land surface model (LSM) with a very deep BBC to estimate the potential for realistic subsurface heat storage in the absence of bottom boundary constraints. Results indicate that there is good agreement between observed fluxes and GCM simulated fluxes for the 1780-1980 period when the GCM simulated temperatures are coupled to the LSM with deep BBC. These results emphasize the importance of placing a deep BBC in GCM soil components for the proper simulation of the overall continental heat budget. In addition, the agreement between the LSM surface fluxes and the borehole temperature reconstructed fluxes lends additional support to the overall quality of the GCM (ECHO-G) paleoclimatic simulations