Tourism, jobs, capital accumulation and the economy: A dynamic analysis

This paper examines the effects of tourism on labor employment, capital accumulation and resident welfare for a small open economy with unemployment. A tourism boom improves the terms of trade, increases labor employment, but lowers capital accumulation. The reduction in the capital stock depends on the degree of factor intensity. When the traded sector is weakly capital intensive, the fall in capital would not be so severe and the expansion of tourism improves welfare. However, when the traded sector is strongly capital intensive, the fall in capital can be a dominant factor to lower welfare. This immiserizing result of tourism on resident welfare is confirmed by the German data.tourism ; employment ; capital accumulation ; welfare

Tourism, jobs, capital accumulation and the economy: A dynamic analysis

This paper examines the effects of tourism on labor employment, capital accumulation and resident welfare for a small open economy with unemployment. A tourism boom improves the terms of trade, increases labor employment, but lowers capital accumulation. The reduction in the capital stock depends on the degree of factor intensity. When the traded sector is weakly capital intensive, the fall in capital would not be so severe and the expansion of tourism improves welfare. However, when the traded sector is strongly capital intensive, the fall in capital can be a dominant factor to lower welfare. This immiserizing result of tourism on resident welfare is confirmed by the German data.Ce papier examine l'effet du tourisme sur l'emploi, l'accumulation du capital et le bien-être dans une petite économie ouverte où une partie de la main-d'oeuvre est au chômage. Une augmentation des recettes touristiques améliore le terme de l'échange, augmente l'emploi, mais réduit l'investissement. La baisse du stock de capital dépend des intensités en facteurs des productions. Quand le secteur exposé a une intensité capitalistique faible, la baisse du capital reste limitée et l'augmentation des recettes touristique améliore le bien-être national. Cependant, si le secteur exposé a une intensité capitalistique forte, la baisse du capital est plus ample et nous obtenons une diminution du bien-être national. L'effet appauvrissant que peut avoir le tourisme est illustré par des simulations sur données allemandes

The Integrated Assessment as the main goal for achieving an Ecosystem Approach to Management in the Western European Shelf Seas

Providing regional integrated ecosystem assessments (IEA) is a key challenge identified in the ICES Strategic Plan (2014-2018). IEAs are seen as a fundamental link between advice and ecosystem science inachieving Ecosystem Based Management (EBM).While EBM is not a new concept, difficulties in achieving such an ambitious goal have been highlighted by the extensive work conducted in this area. The implementation of new regulation policies, such as the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the reformed Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in Europe,have challenged the scientific community to rapidly react despite these difficulties and provide scientific advice to support management decisions concerning these policies. RegionalICES groups have been tasked with developing methods and tools for IEA in their corresponding ecoregions; this is the case of the Working Group on Ecosystem Assessment of Western European Shelf Seas (WGEAWESS). The role of this group is to implement, and test tools and methods for the advisory process, focusing on the North Atlantic European continental shelf, including Celtic Seas, Bay of Biscay and Iberian Waters. In this presentation we show the progress made within this WG during its initial three years of activity, in relation to some of the terms of reference already addressed. An adaptation of the ODEMM framework has been selected as a tool for identifying a) links between components, processes, pressures and states, and b) gaps in data availability and indicator implementation. Some preliminary results of a first IEA exercise will also been shownwith emphasis onthe MSFD descriptors D1 (biological diversity) and D4 (food webs)

Statistical and dynamical properties of covariant lyapunov vectors in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model—multiscale effects, geometric degeneracy, and error dynamics

We study a simplified coupled atmosphere-ocean model using the formalism of covariant Lyapunov vectors (CLVs), which link physically-based directions of perturbations to growth/decay rates. The model is obtained via a severe truncation of quasi-geostrophic equations for the two fluids, and includes a simple yet physically meaningful representation of their dynamical/thermodynamical coupling. The model has 36 degrees of freedom, and the parameters are chosen so that a chaotic behaviour is observed. There are two positive Lyapunov exponents (LEs), sixteen negative LEs, and eighteen near-zero LEs. The presence of many near-zero LEs results from the vast time-scale separation between the characteristic time scales of the two fluids, and leads to nontrivial error growth properties in the tangent space spanned by the corresponding CLVs, which are geometrically very degenerate. Such CLVs correspond to two different classes of ocean/atmosphere coupled modes. The tangent space spanned by the CLVs corresponding to the positive and negative LEs has, instead, a non-pathological behaviour, and one can construct robust large deviations laws for the finite time LEs, thus providing a universal model for assessing predictability on long to ultra-long scales along such directions. Interestingly, the tangent space of the unstable manifold has substantial projection on both atmospheric and oceanic components. The results show the difficulties in using hyperbolicity as a conceptual framework for multiscale chaotic dynamical systems, whereas the framework of partial hyperbolicity seems better suited, possibly indicating an alternative definition for the chaotic hypothesis. They also suggest the need for an accurate analysis of error dynamics on different time scales and domains and for a careful set-up of assimilation schemes when looking at coupled atmosphere-ocean models

Different bottom trawl fisheries have a differential impact on the status of the North Sea seafloor habitats

Fisheries using bottom trawls are the most widespread source of anthropogenic physical disturbance to seafloor habitats. To mitigate such disturbances, the development of fisheries-, conservation-, and ecosystem-based management strategies requires the assessment of the impact of bottom trawling on the state of benthic biota. We explore a quantitative and mechanistic framework to assess trawling impact. Pressure and impact indicators that provide a continuous pressure–response curve are estimated at a spatial resolution of 1 χ 1 min latitude and longitude (~2 km2) using three methods: L1 estimates the proportion of the community with a life span exceeding the time interval between trawling events; L2 estimates the decrease in median longevity in response to trawling; and population dynamic (PD) estimates the decrease in biomass in response to trawling and the recovery time. Although impact scores are correlated, PD has the best performance over a broad range of trawling intensities. Using the framework in a trawling impact assessment of ten métiers in the North Sea shows that muddy habitats are impacted the most and coarse habitats are impacted the least. Otter trawling for crustaceans has the highest impact, followed by otter trawling for demersal fish and beam trawling for flatfish and flyshooting. Beam trawling for brown shrimps, otter trawling for industrial fish, and dredging for molluscs have the lowest impact. Trawling is highly aggregated in core fishing grounds where the status of the seafloor is low but the catch per unit of effort (CPUE) per unit of impact is high, in contrast to peripheral grounds, where CPUE per unit of impact is low.</p

Pathogenic variants in the paired-related homeobox 1 gene (PRRX1) cause craniosynostosis with incomplete penetrance

Purpose Studies previously implicated PRRX1 in craniofacial development, including demonstration of murine Prrx1 expression in the pre-osteogenic cells of the cranial sutures. We investigated the role of heterozygous missense and loss-of-function variants in PRRX1 associated with craniosynostosis. Methods Trio-based genome, exome or targeted sequencing were used to screen PRRX1 in patients with craniosynostosis; immunofluorescence analyses were used to assess nuclear localization of wild-type and mutant proteins. Results Genome sequencing identified 2 of 9 sporadically affected individuals with syndromic/multisuture craniosynostosis who were heterozygous for rare/undescribed variants in PRRX1. Exome or targeted sequencing of PRRX1 revealed a further 9/1449 patients with craniosynostosis harboring deletions or rare heterozygous variants within the homeodomain. By collaboration, seven additional individuals (four families) were identified with putatively pathogenic PRRX1 variants. Immunofluorescence analyses showed that missense variants within the PRRX1 homeodomain cause abnormal nuclear localization. Of patients with variants considered likely pathogenic, bicoronal or other multi-suture synostosis was present in 11/17 (65% of the cases). Pathogenic variants were inherited from unaffected relatives in many instances, yielding a 12.5% penetrance estimate for craniosynostosis. Conclusion This work supports a key role for PRRX1 in cranial suture development and shows that haploinsufficiency of PRRX1 is a relatively frequent cause of craniosynostosis

FcγRIIb Inhibits Allergic Lung Inflammation in a Murine Model of Allergic Asthma

Allergic asthma is characterized by airway eosinophilia, increased mucin production and allergen-specific IgE. Fc gamma receptor IIb (FcγRIIb), an inhibitory IgG receptor, has recently emerged as a negative regulator of allergic diseases like anaphylaxis and allergic rhinitis. However, no studies to date have evaluated its role in allergic asthma. Our main objective was to study the role of FcγRIIb in allergic lung inflammation. We used a murine model of allergic airway inflammation. Inflammation was quantified by BAL inflammatory cells and airway mucin production. FcγRIIb expression was measured by qPCR and flow cytometry and the cytokines were quantified by ELISA. Compared to wild type animals, FcγRIIb deficient mice mount a vigorous allergic lung inflammation characterized by increased bronchoalveolar lavage fluid cellularity, eosinophilia and mucin content upon ragweed extract (RWE) challenge. RWE challenge in sensitized mice upregulated FcγRIIb in the lungs. Disruption of IFN-γ gene abrogated this upregulation. Treatment of naïve mice with the Th1-inducing agent CpG DNA increased FcγRIIb expression in the lungs. Furthermore, treatment of sensitized mice with CpG DNA prior to RWE challenge induced greater upregulation of FcγRIIb than RWE challenge alone. These observations indicated that RWE challenge upregulated FcγRIIb in the lungs by IFN-γ- and Th1-dependent mechanisms. RWE challenge upregulated FcγRIIb on pulmonary CD14+/MHC II+ mononuclear cells and CD11c+ cells. FcγRIIb deficient mice also exhibited an exaggerated RWE-specific IgE response upon sensitization when compared to wild type mice. We propose that FcγRIIb physiologically regulates allergic airway inflammation by two mechanisms: 1) allergen challenge mediates upregulation of FcγRIIb on pulmonary CD14+/MHC II+ mononuclear cells and CD11c+ cells by an IFN-γ dependent mechanism; and 2) by attenuating the allergen specific IgE response during sensitization. Thus, stimulating FcγRIIb may be a therapeutic strategy in allergic airway disorders

Morbidity and mortality after anaesthesia in early life: results of the European prospective multicentre observational study, neonate and children audit of anaesthesia practice in Europe (NECTARINE)

Background: Neonates and infants requiring anaesthesia are at risk of physiological instability and complications, but triggers for peri-anaesthetic interventions and associations with subsequent outcome are unknown. Methods: This prospective, observational study recruited patients up to 60 weeks' postmenstrual age undergoing anaesthesia for surgical or diagnostic procedures from 165 centres in 31 European countries between March 2016 and January 2017. The primary aim was to identify thresholds of pre-determined physiological variables that triggered a medical intervention. The secondary aims were to evaluate morbidities, mortality at 30 and 90 days, or both, and associations with critical events. Results: Infants (n=5609) born at mean (standard deviation [SD]) 36.2 (4.4) weeks postmenstrual age (35.7% preterm) underwent 6542 procedures within 63 (48) days of birth. Critical event(s) requiring intervention occurred in 35.2% of cases, mainly hypotension (&gt;30% decrease in blood pressure) or reduced oxygenation (SpO2 &lt;85%). Postmenstrual age influenced the incidence and thresholds for intervention. Risk of critical events was increased by prior neonatal medical conditions, congenital anomalies, or both (relative risk [RR]=1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04–1.28) and in those requiring preoperative intensive support (RR=1.27; 95% CI, 1.15–1.41). Additional complications occurred in 16.3% of patients by 30 days, and overall 90-day mortality was 3.2% (95% CI, 2.7–3.7%). Co-occurrence of intraoperative hypotension, hypoxaemia, and anaemia was associated with increased risk of morbidity (RR=3.56; 95% CI, 1.64–7.71) and mortality (RR=19.80; 95% CI, 5.87–66.7). Conclusions: Variability in physiological thresholds that triggered an intervention, and the impact of poor tissue oxygenation on patient's outcome, highlight the need for more standardised perioperative management guidelines for neonates and infants. Clinical trial registration: NCT02350348