Keep calm and carry on vaccinating: Is anti-vaccination sentiment contributing to declining vaccine coverage in England?

BACKGROUND: In England, coverage for childhood vaccines have decreased since 2012/13 in the context of an increasingly visible anti-vaccination discourse. We determined whether anti-vaccination sentiment is the likely cause of this decline in coverage. METHODS: Descriptive study triangulating a range of data sources (vaccine coverage, cross-sectional survey of attitudes towards vaccination, UK-specific Twitter social media) and assessing them against the following Bradford Hill criteria: strength of association, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient and coherence. RESULTS: Strength of association: compared with well-documented vaccine scares, the decline in childhood vaccination seen since 2012/13 is 4-20 times smaller; consistency: while coverage for completed courses of the hexavalent and meningococcal vaccines decreased by 0.5-1.2 percentage points (pp) between 2017 and 2019, coverage for the first dose of these vaccines increased 0.5-0.7 pp; specificity: Since 2012-13, coverage decreased for some vaccines (hexavalent, MMR, HPV, shingles) and increased for others (MenACWY, Td/IPV, antenatal pertussis, influenza in 2 years of children), with no age-specific patterns. Temporality and biological gradient: the decline in vaccine coverage was preceded by an increase in vaccine confidence and a decrease in the proportion of parents encountering anti-vaccination materials. Coherence: attitudes towards vaccination expressed on Twitter in the UK became increasingly positive between 2017 and 2019 as vaccine coverage for childhood vaccines decreased. CONCLUSIONS: In England, trends in vaccine coverage between 2012/13 and 2018/19 were not homogenous and varied in magnitude and direction according to vaccine, dose and region. In addition, confidence in vaccines increased during the same period. These findings are not compatible with anti-vaccination sentiment causing a decline in vaccine coverage In England

Trends in imported childhood malaria in the UK: 1999-2003.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology of imported malaria in children in the UK. METHODS: Surveillance data on children with imported malaria, collected through an enhanced surveillance network set up by the Malaria Reference Laboratory (London, UK), diagnosed between January 1999 and December 2003 were analysed. RESULTS: Over the 5-year study period, 9238 cases were reported to the Malaria Reference Laboratory, and children accounted for 1456 (14.8%) cases. The number of imported paediatric malaria cases fell from 326 in 1999 to 241 in 2003. Malarial infection occurred in children of all ages and the number of patients increased gradually with age. Visiting family and relatives was the most common reason for travel (59.5%), with only 7.2% travelling to an area endemic to malaria on holiday. Most infections (88.4%) were acquired in Africa, and mainly in Nigeria (49.7%). Plasmodium falciparum was responsible for 81.7% of all cases, followed by P. vivax (11.1%). The number of both P. falciparum and P. vivax cases fell gradually from 262 and 45 cases in 1999 to 196 and 20 cases in 2003, respectively. Malaria prophylaxis was taken by 39% of 500 children with malaria who had travelled to a country endemic to malaria. The proportion of children with malaria who had taken malaria prophylaxis decreased steadily from 53% in 1999 to 29% in 2003. Two (0.14%) children died compared with 62 (0.76%) adults over the 5-year study period (p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Although the incidence of malaria has started to decline, a considerable number of children are still diagnosed with malaria in the UK. In addition, the proportion of children with malaria who had taken malaria prophylaxis is falling. Although it is reassuring to note the low mortality, there is an urgent need to improve preventive measures among families travelling to high-risk countries

Assessment of healthcare delivery in the early management of bacterial meningitis in UK young infants: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To define early presenting features of bacterial meningitis in young infants in England and to review the adequacy of individual case management as compared with relevant national guidelines and an expert panel review. DESIGN: Retrospective medical case note review and parental recall using standardised questionnaires. SETTING: England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Infants aged <90 days with bacterial meningitis diagnosed between July 2010 and July 2013. RESULTS: Of the 97 cases recruited across England and Wales, 66 (68%) were admitted from home and 31 (32%) were in hospital prior to disease onset. Almost all symptoms reported by parents appeared at the onset of the illness, with very few new symptoms appearing subsequently. Overall, 20/66 (30%) infants were assessed to have received inappropriate prehospital management. The median time from onset of first symptoms to first help was 5 hours (IQR: 2-12) and from triage to receipt of first antibiotic dose was 2.0 hours (IQR: 1.0-3.3), significantly shorter in infants with fever or seizures at presentation compared with those without (1.7 (IQR: 1.0-3.0) vs 4.2 (IQR: 1.8-6.3) hours, p=0.02). Overall, 26 (39%) infants had a poor outcome in terms of death or neurological complication; seizures at presentation was the only significant independent risk factor (OR, 7.9; 95% CI 2.3 to 207.0). For cases in hospital already, the median time from onset to first dose of antibiotics was 2.6 (IQR: 1.3-9.8) hours, and 12/31 (39%) of infants had serious neurological sequelae at hospital discharge. Hearing test was not performed in 23% and when performed delayed by ≥4 weeks in 41%. CONCLUSIONS: In young infants, the non-specific features associated with bacterial meningitis appear to show no progression from onset to admission, whereas there were small but significant differences in the proportion of infants with more specific symptoms at hospital admission compared with at the onset of the illness, highlighting the difficulties in early recognition by parents and healthcare professionals alike. A substantial proportion of infants received inappropriate prehospital and posthospital management. We propose a targeted campaign for education and harmonisation of practice with evidence-based management algorithms

Detection of the United States Neisseria meningitidis urethritis clade in the United Kingdom, August and December 2019 - emergence of multiple antibiotic resistance calls for vigilance.

Since 2015 in the United States (US), the US Neisseria meningitidis urethritis clade (US_NmUC) has caused a large multistate outbreak of urethritis among heterosexual males. Its 'parent' strain caused numerous outbreaks of invasive meningococcal disease among men who have sex with men in Europe and North America. We highlight the arrival and dissemination of US_NmUC in the United Kingdom and the emergence of multiple antibiotic resistance. Surveillance systems should be developed that include anogenital meningococci

Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in UK Children <1 Year of Age in the Post–13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Era: What Are the Risks Now?

Background Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has declined significantly since the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). It is not known whether certain infant populations remain at higher risk of IPD in countries with established 13-valent PCV (PCV13) programs. We aimed to describe the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, serotype distribution, and outcomes of IPD in infants, and to estimate the relative risk of PCV13-type, non-PCV13-type, and overall IPD in premature infants compared to term infants during a 4-year period after the PCV13 program was established. Methods This was a prospective, enhanced national surveillance of laboratory-confirmed IPD in England in infants aged <1 year diagnosed during 2013–2016. Results There were 517 cases of IPD (incidence: 19/100000 infants). Incidence was significantly higher in premature infants compared with those born at term (49/100000 vs 17/100000; incidence rate ratio [IRR], 2.87; P < .001), with infants born before 28 weeks’ gestation having the highest incidence (150/100000; IRR, 8.8; P < .001). Of the 454 IPD cases with serotyped isolates, most were caused by non-PCV13 serotypes (369 cases, 71.4%), with 85 cases (16.4%) due to PCV13 serotypes. There were 31 deaths (case fatality rate [CFR], 6.2% [95% confidence interval, 4.3%–8.6%]). Premature infants did not have a higher CFR than term infants (P = .62). Conclusions IPD incidence in infants remains lower than rates reported prior to PCV7 introduction in England. The risk of IPD remains significantly higher in premature infants compared to infants born at term, for both PCV13 and non-PCV13 serotypes. Any changes to the infant PCV13 immunization schedule may disproportionally affect premature infants

Duration of infectiousness and correlation with RT-PCR cycle threshold values in cases of COVID-19, England, January to May 2020.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract peaks around symptom onset and infectious virus persists for 10 days in mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease (n = 324 samples analysed). RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values correlate strongly with cultivable virus. Probability of culturing virus declines to 8% in samples with Ct > 35 and to 6% 10 days after onset; it is similar in asymptomatic and symptomatic persons. Asymptomatic persons represent a source of transmissible virus

Estimating age-stratified influenza-associated invasive pneumococcal disease in England: A time-series model based on population surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Measures of the contribution of influenza to Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, both in the seasonal and pandemic setting, are needed to predict the burden of secondary bacterial infections in future pandemics to inform stockpiling. The magnitude of the interaction between these two pathogens has been difficult to quantify because both infections are mainly clinically diagnosed based on signs and symptoms; a combined viral-bacterial testing is rarely performed in routine clinical practice; and surveillance data suffer from confounding problems common to all ecological studies. We proposed a novel multivariate model for age-stratified disease incidence, incorporating contact patterns and estimating disease transmission within and across groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used surveillance data from England over the years 2009 to 2017. Influenza infections were identified through the virological testing of samples taken from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness (ILI) within the sentinel scheme run by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP). Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases were routinely reported to Public Health England (PHE) by all the microbiology laboratories included in the national surveillance system. IPD counts at week t, conditional on the previous time point t-1, were assumed to be negative binomially distributed. Influenza counts were linearly included in the model for the mean IPD counts along with an endemic component describing some seasonal background and an autoregressive component mimicking pneumococcal transmission. Using age-specific counts, Akaike information criterion (AIC)-based model selection suggested that the best fit was obtained when the endemic component was expressed as a function of observed temperature and rainfall. Pneumococcal transmission within the same age group was estimated to explain 33.0% (confidence interval [CI] 24.9%-39.9%) of new cases in the elderly, whereas 50.7% (CI 38.8%-63.2%) of incidence in adults aged 15-44 years was attributed to transmission from another age group. The contribution of influenza on IPD during the 2009 pandemic also appeared to vary greatly across subgroups, being highest in school-age children and adults (18.3%, CI 9.4%-28.2%, and 6.07%, CI 2.83%-9.76%, respectively). Other viral infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinovirus, also seemed to have an impact on IPD: RSV contributed 1.87% (CI 0.89%-3.08%) to pneumococcal infections in the 65+ group, whereas 2.14% (CI 0.87%-3.57%) of cases in the group of 45- to 64-year-olds were attributed to rhinovirus. The validity of this modelling strategy relies on the assumption that viral surveillance adequately represents the true incidence of influenza in the population, whereas the small numbers of IPD cases observed in the younger age groups led to significant uncertainty around some parameter estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates suggested that a pandemic wave of influenza A/H1N1 with comparable severity to the 2009 pandemic could have a modest impact on school-age children and adults in terms of IPD and a small to negligible impact on infants and the elderly. The seasonal impact of other viruses such as RSV and rhinovirus was instead more important in the older population groups

Cost-effectiveness analysis of maternal immunisation against group B Streptococcus (GBS) disease: A modelling study

Background There is a considerable global burden of invasive group B streptococcal (GBS) disease. Vaccines are being developed for use in pregnant women to offer protection to neonates. Objective To estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of maternal immunisation against neonatal and maternal invasive GBS disease in the UK. Methods We developed a decision-tree model encompassing GBS-related events in infants and mothers, following a birth cohort with a time horizon equivalent to average life expectancy (81 years). We parameterised the model using contemporary data from disease surveillance and outcomes in GBS survivors. Costs were taken from NHS sources and research studies. Maternal immunisation in combination with risk-based intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) was compared to the current standard practice of risk-based IAP alone from an NHS and Personal Social Services (health-provider) perspective. We estimated the cases averted and cost per QALY gained through vaccination. One-way sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed. Results An effective maternal immunisation programme could substantially reduce the burden of GBS disease. The deterministic analysis estimated the threshold cost-effective price for a GBS vaccine to be £54 per dose at £20,000/QALY (£71 per dose at £30,000/QALY). Results were most sensitive to assumptions on disease incidence, sequelae rate and vaccine efficacy. Probabilistic analysis showed 90.66% of iterations fell under the £30,000 threshold at a vaccine price of £55. Inclusion of modest prevention of stillbirths and/or, preterm births, carer health impacts, maternal GBS deaths and 1.5% discounting improved cost-effectiveness compared to the base case. Lowering vaccine strain coverage made the vaccine less cost-effective. A key limitation is that the properties of the final GBS vaccine are unknown. Conclusions Maternal GBS immunisation is expected to be cost-effective, even at a relatively high vaccine price

Frequent capsule switching in 'ultra-virulent' meningococci - Are we ready for a serogroup B ST-11 complex outbreak?

The meningococcal ST-11 complex (cc11) causes large invasive disease outbreaks with high case fatality rates, such as serogroup C (MenC) epidemics in industrialised nations in the 1990s and the serogroup W epidemic currently expanding globally. Glycoconjugate vaccines are available for serogroups A, C, W and Y. Broad coverage protein-based vaccines have recently been licensed against serogroup B meningococci (MenB), however, these do not afford universal MenB protection. Capsular switching from MenC to MenB among cc11 organisms is concerning because a large MenB cc11 (B:cc11) outbreak has the potential to cause significant morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess the potential for licensed and developmental non-capsular meningococcal vaccines to protect against B:cc11. The population structure and vaccine antigen distribution was determined for a panel of >800 geo-temporally diverse, predominantly MenC cc11 and B:cc11 genomes. The two licensed vaccines potentially protect against many but not all B:cc11 meningococci. Furthermore, strain coverage by these vaccines is often due to a single vaccine antigen and both vaccines are highly susceptible to vaccine escape owing to the apparent dispensability of key proteins used as vaccine antigens. cc11 strains with MenB and MenC capsules warrant special consideration when formulating future non-capsular meningococcal vaccines

Vaccination of Infants with Meningococcal Group B Vaccine (4CMenB) in England.

BACKGROUND: In September 2015, the United Kingdom introduced the multicomponent meningococcal group B vaccine (4CMenB, Bexsero) into its publicly funded national immunization program at a reduced two-dose priming schedule for infants, with a 12-month booster. METHODS: Using data from enhanced national surveillance of invasive meningococcal disease in England, we evaluated the effect of vaccination on the incidence of meningococcal group B disease during the first 3 years of the program. The effect of vaccination was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of disease with the expected incidence based on the incidence during the 4-year prevaccination period in equivalent cohorts and with the use of disease trends in cohorts of children younger than 5 years of age who were not eligible to receive the vaccine. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated with the use of the indirect screening method. RESULTS: 4CMenB uptake in England remained consistently high; data from the first 3 months of 2018 showed that 92.5% of children had completed the primary immunizations by their first birthday and 87.9% had received all three doses by 2 years. From September 2015 through August 2018, the incidence of meningococcal group B disease in England (average annual birth cohort, approximately 650,000 infants) was significantly lower in vaccine-eligible cohorts than the expected incidence (63 observed cases as compared with 253 expected cases; incidence rate ratio, 0.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19 to 0.36), with a 75% reduction in age groups that were fully eligible for vaccination. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness against meningococcal group B disease was 52.7% (95% CI, -33.5 to 83.2) with a two-dose priming schedule for infants and 59.1% (95% CI, -31.1 to 87.2) with a two-dose priming schedule plus a booster at 1 year). Over the 3-year period, there were 169 cases of meningococcal group B disease in the vaccine-eligible cohorts, and an estimated 277 cases (95% CI, 236 to 323) were prevented. CONCLUSIONS: The 4CMenB program was associated with continued positive effect against meningococcal group B disease in children in England, and protection after three doses of the vaccine was sustained for at least 2 years. (Funded by Public Health England.)