Bayesian analysis of FIAPARCH model: an application to São Paulo stock market

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian analysis of a FIAPARCH(p,d,q) model for parameter estimation and conditional variance prediction. In order to study the inference problem we use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm.This methodology is illustrated in a simulation study and it is applied to a set of observations concerning the returns of IBOVESPA value

Asian trade barriers against primary and processed commodities

Many developing countries are being encouraged to shift toward increased processing and exports of domestically produced natural resource based products now exported in primary form. But in many major markets, the structure of tariffs and nontariff barriers militate against such efforts. Zero or low tariffs are generally applied to industrial countries'imports of primary (unprocessed) commodities; duties increase, or"escalate", as the level of processing or fabrication increases. Tariff escalation produces a trade bias against processed goods. In the past, such trade barrier escalation has been attributed chiefly to industrial countries. The authors examined the structure of restrictions in Asian countries and found that most Asian countries'tariffs incorporated more escalation than do tariffs in industrial countries. Apparently tariff escalation is often reinforced by nontariff barriers on processed goods, although supporting data for this finding are less firm. This issue should be viewed as a North-South issue, contend the authors. A bias against imports of processed goods is built into trade barrier escalation among Asian countries and should be addressed in regional initiatives to liberalize intra-Asian trade barriers. The authors make three recommendations for dealing with escalation issues in multilateral negotiations: Japan, and to a lesser extent, the Republic of Korea are the keys to successful negotiations on these issues, as they have a far greater import bias against processed commodities than do all other countries with which the authors compare them. That is, Japanese and Korean trade barriers incorporate far more escalation than do trade barriers in other countries studied. Disproportionately high cuts in trade barriers for unprocessed commodities are not the solution, as they would increase effective protection for processed goodss. Any approach to trade liberalization should deal with both tariffs and nontariff barriers, to ensure that a reduction in one type of restriction is not offset by a further tightening in the other. Several Asian countries apply both types of restrictions to commodity imports.TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Environmental Economics&Policies,Transport and Trade Logistics,Common Carriers Industry,Trade Policy

How changes in the former CMEA area may affect international trade in manufactures

The authors give a long-term perspective on how changes in the former CMEA areas will affect international trade in manufactures. They show that expanding Eastern European exports to the West should be viewed as a step toward normalizing the Eastern European countries'trade patterns. First, proportionally less of the Eastern European economies'trade will be with each other, especially with the former Soviet Union. Second, Western Europe will be their major trading partner but their trade with (especially imports from) Japan and North America may increase dramatically (from a small base). Their exports to and imports from developing countries may also change dramatically. The volume of Eastern European trade is in line with the low income of these economies. In the long run manufactures trade will increase four- to sixfold, once Eastern European income levels catch up with industrial country levels. Until incomes in Eastern European and former Soviet economies increase significantly, labor-intensive goods are likely to dominate their exports to market economies, and sophisticated goods their imports. The authors contend that, since the end of the Cold War, the West has successfully improved the Eastern European countries'access to Western trade, and that the Eastern European countries should now enjoy equal or favorable treatment. Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland, in particular, may become the most favored outsiders in the European Economic Space, the largest single market in the world. One short-term effect of the Eastern European countries'improved outlook may be that developing countries that rely on manufactures for export revenues may have tougher times in major Western markets. But the emancipation of Eastern European and former Soviet economies - and the pent-up demand for consumer goods likely from deprived populations - should provide important opportunities for the dynamic developing countries. The former Soviet Union was not a large market for developing countries - except for India and Yugoslavia and to a lesser extent Algeria and Egypt. Countries such as India that did supply the former Soviet Union with manufactures may soon have to seek alternative markets.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT,Trade Policy,Transport and Trade Logistics

Physiological studies in acclimatization of in vitro tobacco plantlets

1992 Spring.Covers not scanned.Includes bibliographical references.Two acclimatization methods of in vitro tobacco (Nicotiana tabaccum 'Wisconsin 38') plantlets (IVP) were studied for their physiological effects upon plantlet response to transplanting: 1) the use of osmotica in rooting medium such as polyethylene glycol (PEG) or salts (NaCl + CaCl2) at different concentrations and durations, and 2) the use of semipermeable closures (SPC) which improves gas permeability of culture vessels. Concentrations of 1.0%, 2.5%, 5.0%, 10.0% and 15.0% PEG reduced water loss of detached leaves but affected growth adversely especially when above [5%] and 6-day-duration. PEG treatments induced epicuticular wax (EW) build-up and were related to reduced rates of water loss. Salt treatments reduced water loss at 1.5 and 2.0% over control but caused undesirable growth characteristics. Leaf diffusive resistance of PEG-treated plants was reduced prior to transplanting and remained lower than that of control. Stomates of IVPs had slower response to reduced humidity and darkness than greenhouse and PEG-treated plants. The SPC-treated cultures had 2.5 times more evapotranspiration, 2% less relative humidity (RH) and 3 times less medium and plantlet leaf water potential than B-cap-treated cultures. SPC treatments increased plantlet EW by 35%, reduced water loss by 60%, increased plantlet dry weights, reduced wilting injury and increased initial relative growth rates as compared to B-cap treatments. Photosynthetic rates of in vitro plantlets were reduced at RH lower than 80- 90%. SPC improved photosynthetic rates under desiccating conditions by reducing initial conductance and transpiration. Photosynthetic rates of IVPs from both closure treatments were comparable to those of greenhouse plants at high humidity. Stomates of plantlets from both treatments did not respond to [CO2] and darkness compared to stomatal responses of greenhouse plants. Chlorophyll content was increased in the SPC over B-cap plantlets. Better gas exchange of SPC was observed as indicated by CO2 accumulation. Although both osmotica and closure treatments reduced moisture loss in detached leaves of IVPs to levels comparable to those of greenhouse plants, the moisture loss curves deviated from normal bi-phasal shape indicating lack of normal stomatal functioning

NAFTA's Implications for EastAsian exports

Several studies have quantified the influence of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the earlier Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement on member countries. Less attention has been paid to their effects on nonmembers. The authors try to quantify NAFTA's third-party effects on East Asia using a partial equilibrium trade model and a gravity flow model. They identify and focus on East Asian export sectors that are especially at risk of trade diversion. Their results suggest that the NAFTA-induced trade diversion losses could range from $380 million to$700 million. The larger figure represents less than 1 percent of East Asia's nonoil exports to the United States. Their analysis also indicates that losses would be concentrated in a few sectors - such as textiles, clothing, and ferrous metals - where high U.S. trade barriers exist. A larger share of Hong Kong and Macau trade would be diverted than trade in other East Asian economies because textiles and clothing represent a larger share of their exports. Economies specializing in such products as machinery and equipment (Singapore) would have relatively little trade diverted. East Asia's trade losses might be reduced by roughly half once the results of the Uruguay Round are implemented because that will lower the preference margins NAFTA members can extend to each other. To put things in perspective: the trade losses East Asian economies might incur because of NAFTA are roughly 1 percent of the gains they will receive from successful implementation of the Uruguay Round results.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Trade Policy,Trade and Regional Integration,TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT

Prevalence of recurrent aphthous ulceration in Jordanian dental patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reviewing the literature, no studies were cited to report the prevalence of recurrent aphthous ulceration in Jordan. The aim of this study is to report the prevalence of recurrent aphthous ulceration in Jordanian subjects.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 684 dental patients who attended Jordan University of Science and Technology interviewed and administered to fill questionnaires related to history, size, shape, and duration of recurrent aphthous ulceration. Other related questions were also asked.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>About 78% of subjects experienced recurrent aphthous ulceration. Approximately 85% of ulcers were less than one cm in diameter, 66% were circular in shape, 92% were painful, 82% interfered with eating, and 55% located in lips and buccal mucosa. Only 50%of participants related ulcers to stress. Sixty eight percent reported no association with tiredness and 85% no association with types of food ingested. Of the 39% who had blood tests carried out, 7% had vitamin B12 and 4% hemoglobin deficiency.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Recurrent aphthous ulceration is a common problem in Jordanian adults.</p

An Adaptive Tracking Algorithm for Robotics and Computer Vision Application

We provided a vision-controlled robotics manipulation system with a robust, accurate algorithm to predict the translational motion of a 3-D object; hence, making it possible to continuously point the video camera at the moving object. The real time video images are fed to a PVM-1 (a pyramid-based image processor) for image processing and moving object detection. The measured object coordinates are continuously fed to our algorithm for track smoothing and prediction. In this study, we examined several tracking algorithms and adopted an optimal α - β filter for tracking purposes and the α - β -γ filter as part of the initialization procedure. The optimum gains for these 6lkm are based on the Tracking Index principle which in its turn is based on the measurement noise variance and the object dynamics. We derived an expression for the noise variance corresponding to our application. As for the object dynamics, we developed an adaptive method (using the α - β -γ filter mentioned above) for inferring object dynamics in an iterative learning process that results in an accurate estimate of the Tracking Index. The accuracy of our algorithm realizes that of the Kalman filter but is much simpler computationally