Delivering the two degree global climate change target using a flexible ratchet framework

<p>Global climate negotiations have been characterized by a divide between developed and developing nations – a split which has served as a persistent barrier to international agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. Notable progress in bridging this division was achieved at the 21st Conference of the Parties meeting in Paris through the introduction of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). However, the collective ambition of submitted INDCs falls short of a global 2°C target, requiring an effective ratchet mechanism to review and increase national commitments. Inequitable distribution of additional responsibilities risks re-opening historic divisions between parties. This article presents a flexible ratchet framework which shares mitigation commitments on the basis of per capita equity in line with emerging requirements for a 2°C target. The framework has been designed through convergence between developed and developing nations; developed nation targets are based on an agreed standardized percentage reduction wherever emissions are above per capita equity; developing nations are required to peak emissions at or below per capita equity levels by an agreed convergence date. The proposed framework has the flexibility to be integrated with current INDCs and to evolve in line with shifting estimates of climate sensitivity.</p> <p><b>Policy relevance</b></p> <p>The outcome of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) negotiations in Paris offered mixed results in terms of level of ambition and submitted national commitments. A global agreement to keep average global temperature rise below two degrees was maintained; however, current pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are projected to result in an average warming of close to three degrees. The implementation of a global ratchet mechanism to scale-up national commitments will remain key to closing this ambition gap to reach this two degree target. How this upscaling of responsibility is shared between parties will be a defining discussion point within future negotiations. This study presents a standardized, equity-based framework for how this ratchet mechanism can be implemented – a framework designed to be flexible for evolution in line with better understanding of climate sensitivity, and adaptable for integrations with current INDC proposals.</p

Climate negotiators’ and scientists’ assessments of the climate negotiations

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyze the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of more than 600 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centered on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who are more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals’ perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations

Human papillomavirus ‘reflex' testing as a screening method in cases of minor cytological abnormalities

The aim was to evaluate human papillomavirus (HPV) ‘reflex genotyping' in cases of minor cytological abnormalities detected in the gynaecological screening programme in Stockholm, Sweden. Liquid-based cytology samples showing minor cytological abnormalities were analysed using HPV genotyping (Linear Array, Roche diagnostics). Colposcopically directed cervical biopsies were obtained and the HPV test results were correlated with the histological results. In all, 63% (70/112) of the samples were high-risk (HR) HPV (HR-HPV) positive. A statistically significant correlation was found between high-grade cervical lesions and HR-HPV (P=0.019), among which HPV 16, 18, and 31 were the most important. The negative predictive value of HR-HPV detection for histologically confirmed high-grade lesions was 100%. An age limit for HPV reflex testing may be motivated in cases of low-grade squamous intraepithelial neoplasia (LSIL), because of high HR-HPV prevalence among younger women. By using HPV reflex genotyping, additional extensive workup can safely be avoided in about 50% of all cases of atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) and LSIL among women ⩾30 years. This screening strategy could potentially reduce the total abnormal cytology-reporting rate in the Swedish screening programme by about 1% and provide more accurately directed follow-up, guided by cytological appearance and HPV test results

Coding of procedures documented by general practitioners in Swedish primary care-an explorative study using two procedure coding systems

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Procedures documented by general practitioners in primary care have not been studied in relation to procedure coding systems. We aimed to describe procedures documented by Swedish general practitioners in electronic patient records and to compare them to the Swedish Classification of Health Interventions (KVÅ) and SNOMED CT.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Procedures in 200 record entries were identified, coded, assessed in relation to two procedure coding systems and analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>417 procedures found in the 200 electronic patient record entries were coded with 36 different Classification of Health Interventions categories and 148 different SNOMED CT concepts. 22.8% of the procedures could not be coded with any Classification of Health Interventions category and 4.3% could not be coded with any SNOMED CT concept. 206 procedure-concept/category pairs were assessed as a complete match in SNOMED CT compared to 10 in the Classification of Health Interventions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Procedures documented by general practitioners were present in nearly all electronic patient record entries. Almost all procedures could be coded using SNOMED CT.</p> <p>Classification of Health Interventions covered the procedures to a lesser extent and with a much lower degree of concordance. SNOMED CT is a more flexible terminology system that can be used for different purposes for procedure coding in primary care.</p

Validity of registration of ICD codes and prescriptions in a research database in Swedish primary care: a cross-sectional study in Skaraborg primary care database

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In recent years, several primary care databases recording information from computerized medical records have been established and used for quality assessment of medical care and research. However, to be useful for research purposes, the data generated routinely from every day practice require registration of high quality. In this study we aimed to investigate (i) the frequency and validity of ICD code and drug prescription registration in the new Skaraborg primary care database (SPCD) and (ii) to investigate the sources of variation in this registration.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>SPCD contains anonymous electronic medical records (ProfDoc III) automatically retrieved from all 24 public health care centres (HCC) in Skaraborg, Sweden. The frequencies of ICD code registration for the selected diagnoses diabetes mellitus, hypertension and chronic cardiovascular disease and the relevant drug prescriptions in the time period between May 2002 and October 2003 were analysed. The validity of data registration in the SPCD was assessed in a random sample of 50 medical records from each HCC (n = 1200 records) using the medical record text as gold standard. The variance of ICD code registration was studied with multi-level logistic regression analysis and expressed as median odds ratio (MOR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For diabetes mellitus and hypertension ICD codes were registered in 80-90% of cases, while for congestive heart failure and ischemic heart disease ICD codes were registered more seldom (60-70%). Drug prescription registration was overall high (88%). A correlation between the frequency of ICD coded visits and the sensitivity of the ICD code registration was found for hypertension and congestive heart failure but not for diabetes or ischemic heart disease.</p> <p>The frequency of ICD code registration varied from 42 to 90% between HCCs, and the greatest variation was found at the physician level (MOR_PHYSICIAN= 4.2 and MOR_HCC= 2.3).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Since the frequency of ICD code registration varies between different diagnoses, each diagnosis must be separately validated. Improved frequency and quality of ICD code registration might be achieved by interventions directed towards the physicians where the greatest amount of variation was found.</p

A Generic Platform for Cellular Screening Against Ubiquitin Ligases

Ubiquitin signalling regulates most aspects of cellular life, thus deregulation of ubiquitylation has been linked with a number of diseases. E3 ubiquitin ligases provide substrate selectivity in ubiquitylation cascades and are therefore considered to be attractive targets for developing therapeutic molecules. In contrast to established drug target classes, such as protein kinases, GPCRs, hormone receptors and ion channels, ubiquitin drug discovery is in its early stages. This is, in part, due to the complexity of the ubiquitylation pathways and the lack of robust quantitative technologies that allow high-throughput screening of inhibitors. Here we report the development of a Ubiquitin Ligase Profiling system, which is a novel and generic cellular technology designed to facilitate identification of selective inhibitors against RING type E3 ubiquitin ligases. Utilization of this system requires a single co-transfection of cells with assay vectors, thereby enabling readout of E3 ubiquitin ligase catalytic activity within the cellular environment. Therefore, our robust high-throughput screening platform offers novel opportunities for the development of inhibitors against this difficult-to-target E3 ligase enzyme class