Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability

Repeatability of Multiparametric Prostate MRI Radiomics Features

In this study we assessed the repeatability of the values of radiomics features for small prostate tumors using test-retest Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging (mpMRI) images. The premise of radiomics is that quantitative image features can serve as biomarkers characterizing disease. For such biomarkers to be useful, repeatability is a basic requirement, meaning its value must remain stable between two scans, if the conditions remain stable. We investigated repeatability of radiomics features under various preprocessing and extraction configurations including various image normalization schemes, different image pre-filtering, 2D vs 3D texture computation, and different bin widths for image discretization. Image registration as means to re-identify regions of interest across time points was evaluated against human-expert segmented regions in both time points. Even though we found many radiomics features and preprocessing combinations with a high repeatability (Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) > 0.85), our results indicate that overall the repeatability is highly sensitive to the processing parameters (under certain configurations, it can be below 0.0). Image normalization, using a variety of approaches considered, did not result in consistent improvements in repeatability. There was also no consistent improvement of repeatability through the use of pre-filtering options, or by using image registration between timepoints to improve consistency of the region of interest localization. Based on these results we urge caution when interpreting radiomics features and advise paying close attention to the processing configuration details of reported results. Furthermore, we advocate reporting all processing details in radiomics studies and strongly recommend making the implementation available

Behavioral inhibition in childhood predicts smaller hippocampal volume in adolescent offspring of parents with panic disorder

Behavioral inhibition (BI) is a genetically influenced behavioral profile seen in 15–20% of 2-year-old children. Children with BI are timid with people, objects and situations that are novel or unfamiliar, and are more reactive physiologically to these challenges as evidenced by higher heart rate, pupillary dilation, vocal cord tension and higher levels of cortisol. BI predisposes to the later development of anxiety, depression and substance abuse. Reduced hippocampal volumes have been observed in anxiety disorders, depression and posttraumatic stress disorder. Animal models have demonstrated that chronic stress can damage the hippocampal formation and implicated cortisol in these effects. We, therefore, hypothesized that the hippocampi of late adolescents who had been behaviorally inhibited as children would be smaller compared with those who had not been inhibited. Hippocampal volume was measured with high-resolution structural magnetic resonance imaging in 43 females and 40 males at 17 years of age who were determined to be BI+ or BI− based on behaviors observed in the laboratory as young children. BI in childhood predicted reduced hippocampal volumes in the adolescents who were offspring of parents with panic disorder, or panic disorder with comorbid major depression. We discuss genetic and environmental factors emanating from both child and parent that may explain these findings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate a relationship between the most extensively studied form of temperamentally based human trait anxiety, BI, and hippocampal structure. The reduction in hippocampal volume, as reported by us, suggests a role for the hippocampus in human trait anxiety and anxiety disorder that warrants further investigation

Repeatability of Cerebral Perfusion Using Dynamic Susceptibility Contrast MRI in Glioblastoma Patients12

OBJECTIVES This study evaluates the repeatability of brain perfusion using dynamic susceptibility contrast magnetic resonance imaging (DSC-MRI) with a variety of post-processing methods. METHODS Thirty-two patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma were recruited. On a 3-T MRI using a dual-echo, gradient-echo spin-echo DSC-MRI protocol, the patients were scanned twice 1 to 5 days apart. Perfusion maps including cerebral blood volume (CBV) and cerebral blood flow (CBF) were generated using two contrast agent leakage correction methods, along with testing normalization to reference tissue, and application of arterial input function (AIF). Repeatability of CBV and CBF within tumor regions and healthy tissues, identified by structural images, was assessed with intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) and repeatability coefficients (RCs). Coefficients of variation (CVs) were reported for selected methods. RESULTS CBV and CBF were highly repeatable within tumor with ICC values up to 0.97. However, both CBV and CBF showed lower ICCs for healthy cortical tissues (up to 0.83), healthy gray matter (up to 0.95), and healthy white matter (WM; up to 0.93). The values of CV ranged from 6% to 10% in tumor and 3% to 11% in healthy tissues. The values of RC relative to the mean value of measurement within healthy WM ranged from 22% to 42% in tumor and 7% to 43% in healthy tissues. These percentages show how much variation in perfusion parameter, relative to that in healthy WM, we expect to observe to consider it statistically significant. We also found that normalization improved repeatability, but AIF deconvolution did not. CONCLUSIONS DSC-MRI is highly repeatable in high-grade glioma patients

Characterization of the "deqi" response in acupuncture

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Acupuncture stimulation elicits <it>deqi</it>, a composite of unique sensations that is essential for clinical efficacy according to traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). There is lack of adequate experimental data to indicate what sensations comprise <it>deqi</it>, their prevalence and intensity, their relationship to acupoints, how they compare with conventional somatosensory or noxious response. The objective of this study is to provide scientific evidence on these issues and to characterize the nature of the <it>deqi phenomenon </it>in terms of the prevalence of sensations as well as the uniqueness of the sensations underlying the <it>deqi </it>experience.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Manual acupuncture was performed at LI4, ST36 and LV3 on the extremities in randomized order during fMRI in 42 acupuncture naïve healthy adult volunteers. Non-invasive tactile stimulation was delivered to the acupoints by gentle tapping with a von Frey monofilament prior to acupuncture to serve as a sensory control. At the end of each procedure, the subject was asked if each of the sensations listed in a questionnaire or any other sensations occurred during stimulation, and if present to rate its intensity on a numerical scale of 1–10. Statistical analysis including paired t-test, analysis of variance, Spearman's correlation and Fisher's exact test were performed to compare responses between acupuncture and sensory stimulation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The <it>deqi </it>response was elicited in 71% of the acupuncture procedures compared with 24% for tactile stimulation when thresholded at a minimum total score of 3 for all the sensations. The frequency and intensity of individual sensations were significantly higher in acupuncture. Among the sensations typically associated with <it>deqi</it>, aching, soreness and pressure were most common, followed by tingling, numbness, dull pain, heaviness, warmth, fullness and coolness. Sharp pain of brief duration that occurred in occasional subjects was regarded as inadvertent noxious stimulation. The most significant differences in the <it>deqi </it>sensations between acupuncture and tactile stimulation control were observed with aching, soreness, pressure and dull pain. Consistent with its prominent role in TCM, LI4 showed the most prominent response, the largest number of sensations as well as the most marked difference in the frequency and intensity of aching, soreness and dull pain between acupuncture and tactile stimulation control. Interestingly, the dull pain generally preceded or occurred in the absence of sharp pain in contrast to reports in the pain literature. An approach to summarize a sensation profile, called the <it>deqi composite</it>, is proposed and applied to explain differences in <it>deqi </it>among acupoints.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The complex pattern of sensations in the <it>deqi </it>response suggests involvement of a wide spectrum of myelinated and unmyelinated nerve fibers, particularly the slower conducting fibers in the tendinomuscular layers. The study provides scientific data on the characteristics of the <it>'deqi' </it>response in acupuncture and its association with distinct nerve fibers. The findings are clinically relevant and consistent with modern concepts in neurophysiology. They can provide a foundation for future studies on the <it>deqi </it>phenomenon.</p

Serum S100B levels after meningioma surgery: A comparison of two laboratory assays

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>S100B protein is a potential biomarker of central nervous system insult. This study quantitatively compared two methods for assessing serum concentration of S100B.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective, observational study performed in a single tertiary medical center. Included were fifty two consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for meningioma that provided blood samples for determination of S100B concentrations. Eighty samples (40 pre-operative and 40 postoperative) were randomly selected for batch testing. Each sample was divided into two aliquots. These were analyzed by ELISA (Sangtec) and a commercial kit (Roche Elecsys^®) for S100B concentrations. Statistical analysis included regression modelling and Bland-Altman analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A parsimonious linear model best described the prediction of commercial kit values by those determined by ELISA (y = 0.045 + 0.277*x, x = ELISA value, R²= 0.732). ELISA measurements tended to be higher than commercial kit measurements. This discrepancy increased linearly with increasing S100B concentrations. At concentrations above 0.7 μg/L the paired measurements were consistently outside the limits of agreement in the Bland-Altman display. Similar to other studies that used alternative measurement methods, sex and age related differences in serum S100B levels were not detected using the Elecsys^®(p = 0.643 and 0.728 respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although a generally linear relationship exists between serum S100B concentrations measured by ELISA and a commercially available kit, ELISA values tended to be higher than commercial kit measurements particularly at concentrations over 0.7 μg/L, which are suggestive of brain injury. International standardization of commercial kits is required before the predictive validity of S100B for brain damage can be effectively assessed in clinical practice.</p

Effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on stroke and atrial fibrillation in diabetic kidney disease: Results from the CREDENCE trial and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Chronic kidney disease with reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate or elevated albuminuria increases risk for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. This study assessed the effects of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on stroke and atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) from CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) and a meta-Analysis of large cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) of SGLT2i in type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: CREDENCE randomized 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease to canagliflozin or placebo. Post hoc, we estimated effects on fatal or nonfatal stroke, stroke subtypes, and intermediate markers of stroke risk including AF/AFL. Stroke and AF/AFL data from 3 other completed large CVOTs and CREDENCE were pooled using random-effects meta-Analysis. RESULTS: In CREDENCE, 142 participants experienced a stroke during follow-up (10.9/1000 patient-years with canagliflozin, 14.2/1000 patient-years with placebo; hazard ratio [HR], 0.77 [95% CI, 0.55-1.08]). Effects by stroke subtypes were: ischemic (HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.61-1.28]; n=111), hemorrhagic (HR, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.19-1.32]; n=18), and undetermined (HR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.20-1.46]; n=17). There was no clear effect on AF/AFL (HR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.53-1.10]; n=115). The overall effects in the 4 CVOTs combined were: Total stroke (HRpooled, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.82-1.12]), ischemic stroke (HRpooled, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.89-1.14]), hemorrhagic stroke (HRpooled, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.30-0.83]), undetermined stroke (HRpooled, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.49-1.51]), and AF/AFL (HRpooled, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.71-0.93]). There was evidence that SGLT2i effects on total stroke varied by baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (P=0.01), with protection in the lowest estimated glomerular filtration rate (45 mL/min/1.73 m2]) subgroup (HRpooled, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.31-0.79]). CONCLUSIONS: Although we found no clear effect of SGLT2i on total stroke in CREDENCE or across trials combined, there was some evidence of benefit in preventing hemorrhagic stroke and AF/AFL, as well as total stroke for those with lowest estimated glomerular filtration rate. Future research should focus on confirming these data and exploring potential mechanisms

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)