Unemployed and alone? Unemployment and social participation in Europe

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between unemployment and social participation and aim to identify the role of national policies and attitudes as possible mediators. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use the 2006 EU-SILC module on social participation – a data set that provides rich information on social participation for 22/23 EU countries. They adopt a two-step multi-level design, allowing them to directly examine the impact of national policies and norms on individual outcome. Findings – The paper reveals clear evidence that the unemployed have lower levels of social participation than the employed across a range of indicators. The paper also reveals that macro-level variables significantly affect the extent of these differentials in social participation. For instance, the authors found that societies that expose the unemployed to poverty risk have a larger social participation gap between the employed and the unemployed. Originality/value – While the negative association between unemployment and social participation has been established in prior work, the study is the first one to employ a “large N” comparison and to use a multi-level design to statistically test the degree to which macro-level variables mediate the negative relationship between unemployment and social participation. The analyses were able to show that societal context can significantly alleviate the negative implications of unemployment for social participation

Measuring the effect of institutional change on gender inequality in the labour market

This article examines the differential impact of labour market institutions on women and men. It carries out longitudinal analyses using repeat cross-sectional data from the EU Labour Force Survey 1992–2007 as well as time series data that measure institutional change over the same period. The results contribute to the literature on gendered employment, adding important insights into the impact of labour market institutions over and above family policies that have been the focus of most prior studies on the topic. We find differential effects of institutional change on male and female outcome. Our findings challenge the neo-classical literature on the topic. While our results suggest that men benefit more clearly than women from increases in employment protection, we do not find support for the neo-classical assertion that strong trade unions decrease female employment. Instead, increasing union strength is shown to have beneficial effects for both men's and women's likelihood of being employed on the standard employment contract. Furthermore, in line with other researchers, we find that rising levels of in kind state support to families improve women's employment opportunities

Open borders, closed minds: the discursive construction of national identity in North Cyprus

The article investigates the discursive construction of a Turkish Cypriot national identity by the newspapers in North Cyprus. It questions the representation and reconstruction processes of national identity within the press and examines the various practices employed to mobilize readers around certain national imaginings. Using Critical Discourse Analysis, the article analyses news reports of the opening of border crossings in Cyprus in 2003, based on their content, the strategies used in the production of national identity and the linguistic means employed in the process. In this way, the nationalist tendencies embedded in news discourses, as well as discriminatory and exclusive practices, are sought out

Uncertainty analysis using Bayesian Model Averaging: a case study of input variables to energy models and inference to associated uncertainties of energy scenarios

Background Energy models are used to illustrate, calculate and evaluate energy futures under given assumptions. The results of energy models are energy scenarios representing uncertain energy futures. Methods The discussed approach for uncertainty quantification and evaluation is based on Bayesian Model Averaging for input variables to quantitative energy models. If the premise is accepted that the energy model results cannot be less uncertain than the input to energy models, the proposed approach provides a lower bound of associated uncertainty. The evaluation of model-based energy scenario uncertainty in terms of input variable uncertainty departing from a probabilistic assessment is discussed. Results The result is an explicit uncertainty quantification for input variables of energy models based on well-established measure and probability theory. The quantification of uncertainty helps assessing the predictive potential of energy scenarios used and allows an evaluation of possible consequences as promoted by energy scenarios in a highly uncertain economic, environmental, political and social target system. Conclusions If societal decisions are vested in computed model results, it is meaningful to accompany these with an uncertainty assessment. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) for input variables of energy models could add to the currently limited tools for uncertainty assessment of model-based energy scenarios

Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor’s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

The Making of Racial and Ethnic Categories: Official Statistics Reconsidered

One of the most striking features of the end of the twentieth century was the resurgence of the ethnic question in public debates, both in developing and in developed countries. Between conflicts and wars interpreted from an ethnic perspective (the Balkans and central Africa), nationalist struggles (the Basque country, Quebec and Belgium), and demands for recognition and political representation by new ethnic minorities resulting from immigration, every country is currently affected by what is commonly known as cultural pluralism (Hobsbawm 1993; Dieckhoff 2000; Faist 2009; Simon and Piché 2013). This ‘ethnic renewal’, to coin the expression used to qualify the growing interest for ethnic diversity in the 1960s in the US, is not only driven by a sort of obsession for cultural differences as an explanation for all kinds of social and political phenomenon. It derives from different legacies: from the increasing diversity of the population of countries that have undergone large immigration flows to the long lasting cohabitation of national minorities within modern Nation states, from the history of slavery to the post-colonial era. This resurgence or extension of the salience of ethnicity in most of the societies around the world can be found not only in public discourses, policy-making, scientific literature and popular representations, but also in the pivotal realm of statistics. Indeed, at the turn of century, an increasing number of countries are processing routinely data on ethnicity or race of their population. This is precisely what this book is about: ethnic and racial classifications in official statistics, as a reflection of the representations of population and an interpretation of social dynamics through different lenses