Financial Risk Management in a Volatile Global Environment

The virtual collapse of several Asian markets has triggered a series of aftershocks in the global financial markets. From the alleged contagion that spread the crisis to Russia and South America to the de facto collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the repercussions of these events have led to endless debate. Even as participants in the global marketplace continue to seek answers to basic questions, such as the cause of the events and their implications, the public sector and industry lobbyists have offered remedies. In April 1999, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets issued a report that recommended a series of measures designed to constrain leverage in the U.S. portion of the financial system. (See Box 1) Precipitated by the collapse of LTCM, the working group saw their recommendations as a needed response to the situation leading up to capital market vulnerability, regional crises and the financial collapse of some institutions. This was followed by an industry report from the Counterparty Risk Management Group, a consortium of twelve internationally active commercial and investment banks, which was issued in June 1999. (See Box 2) The new document recommends ways to strengthen the management of market, counterparty, credit and liquidity risk without regulation and government interference. To some, the government and industry responses to the crisis that began in Malaysia and ended in the offices of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York were seen as timely. To us, they seemed premature, because neither the causes nor the effects of the tumultuous recent financial market events were well understood. To shed light on the circumstances surrounding the global crisis, and to discuss possible firm-level remedies, the Wharton Financial Institutions Center held its second Financial Engineering Roundtable on "The Measurement and Management of Global Financial Risks" last Spring in Philadelphia. The event brought together an array of distinguished academics, risk managers from the major trading houses, and financial consultants to discuss the significant issues surrounding the increased risk of today's global marketplace. In the companion papers contained in this supplement, several of the participants offer their analysis and perceptions on the events of the last year, and several others propose new risk management tools motivated by those events. Here we offer an overview of both the issues surrounding the global financial crisis, as well as the potential solutions offered to assure the stability of financial firms in the increasingly complex trading environment.

Decolonizing ‘Femicide’ in International Frameworks: A Decolonial Feminist Approach

Indigenous women are significantly overrepresented in homocide statistics in colonial states around the world. The term femicide is currently defined in international legal and political frameworks as ‘the killing of women and girls because of their gender.’ This definition, while seemingly straightforward, is limited by its racelessness and by the way colonial logic constructs gender. By deconstructing colonial logic, it becomes evident that the gender binary itself, is a colonial attempt to dehumanize the group which it terms ‘Indigenous women.’ My research evaluates solutions to decolonizing ‘femicide’ in international frameworks through an extensive literature review of decolonial feminist scholarship. The only solution to observing femicide clearly, is to deconstruct the category based logic of colonial modernity. In seeing beyond what is accepted as common sense, it becomes clear that coloniality manifested through race, gender, class, and space work congruously to construct the frame that sees Indigenous women as inhuman and disposable in colonial societies. Therein, deconstructing the concept of femicide in international legal and political frameworks is integral to better addressing the violence experienced by Indigenous women

Space charge enhanced plasma gradient effects on satellite electric field measurements

It has been recognized that plasma gradients can cause error in magnetospheric electric field measurements made by double probes. Space charge enhanced Plasma Gradient Induced Error (PGIE) is discussed in general terms, presenting the results of a laboratory experiment designed to demonstrate this error, and deriving a simple expression that quantifies this error. Experimental conditions were not identical to magnetospheric conditions, although efforts were made to insure the relevant physics applied to both cases. The experimental data demonstrate some of the possible errors in electric field measurements made by strongly emitting probes due to space charge effects in the presence of plasma gradients. Probe errors in space and laboratory conditions are discussed, as well as experimental error. In the final section, theoretical aspects are examined and an expression is derived for the maximum steady state space charge enhanced PGIE taken by two identical current biased probes

Does ursodeoxycholic acid change the proliferation of the colorectal mucosa? A randomized, placebo-controlled study

Background: In animal models ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) showed a chemoprotective effect against colon cancer. To explain this, a reduced proliferation of the colorectal mucosal proliferation was suggested. We, therefore, examined the influence of UDCA on the proliferation of normal colorectal mucosa in humans. Methods: Following endoscopic polypectomy, 20 patients with colorectal adenomas were randomized to receive either UDCA (750 mg/day, n = 10, group A) or placebo (n = 10, group B) for 6 months in a double-blinded way. Colorectal biopsies were sampled before and at the end of the medication by total colonoscopy. Colorectal mucosal proliferation was measured by FACScan analysis of propidium iodine labeling. Serum was sampled, and serum bile acids were analyzed by gas chromatography. Results: The proliferation rates at the end of the study were similar in both groups (median 15.4%; range 12.0-20.9 in group A; median 16.0%, 14.0-20.2 in group B, p = 0.41). Serum lithocholic acid levels at the end of the study were significantly higher in group A (1.3 mumol/l, 0.9-1.8) than in group B (0.7 mumol/l, 0-1.7, p < 0.02), whereas serum deoxycholic acid levels were similar in both groups. Conclusions: In this study, UDCA treatment for 6 months does not seem to induce changes in the proliferative behavior of the colorectal mucosa in patients with adenomas. It seems likely that a putative chemopreventive effect of UDCA in humans is not exerted by a reduction of the colorectal proliferation. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel

Noncontact electrical metrology of Cu/low-k interconnect for semiconductor production wafers

We have demonstrated a technique capable of in-line measurement of dielectric constant of low-k interconnect films on patterned wafers utilizing a test key of ~50x50 \mu m in size. The test key consists of a low-k film backed by a Cu grid with >50% metal pattern density and <250 nm pitch, which is fully compatible with the existing dual-damascene interconnect manufacturing processes. The technique is based on a near-field scanned microwave probe and is noncontact, noninvasive, and requires no electrical contact to or grounding of the wafer under test. It yields <0.3% precision and 2% accuracy for the film dielectric constant

Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs

This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model previously estimated over the 1979Q1-2003Q4 period by Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007), is used to generate out-of-sample one quarter and four quarters ahead forecasts of real output, inflation, real equity prices, exchange rates and interest rates over the period 2004Q1-2005Q4. Forecasts are obtained for 134 variables from 26 regions made up of 33 countries covering about 90 % of world output. The forecasts are compared to typical benchmarks: univariate autoregressive and random walk models. Building on the forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling forecasts obtained from different GVAR models estimated over alternative sample periods. Given the size of the modelling problem, and the heterogeneity of economies considered — industrialised, emerging, and less developed countries — as well as the very real likelihood of possibly multiple structural breaks, averaging forecasts across both models and windows makes a significant difference. Indeed the double-averaged GVAR forecasts perform bette

Comparison of experimental and numerical sloshing loads in partially filled tanks

Sloshing phenomenon consists in the movement of liquids inside partially filled tanks, whichgenerates dynamic loads on the tank structure. Resulting impact pressures are of great importance in assessingstructural strength, and their correct evaluation still represents a challenge for the designer due to the highnonlinearities involved, with complex free surface deformations, violent impact phenomena and influence of airtrapping. In the present paper a set of two-dimensional cases for which experimental results are available areconsidered to assess merits and shortcomings of different numerical methods for sloshing evaluation, namely twocommercial RANS solvers (FLOW-3D and LS-DYNA), and two own developed methods (Smoothed ParticleHydrodynamics and RANS). Impact pressures at different critical locations and global moment induced by watermotion for a partially filled tank with rectangular section having a rolling motion have been evaluated and resultsare compared with experiments

Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Hybrid Software Development Approaches in Practice: A European Perspective

Agile and traditional development approaches are used in combination in todays software development. To improve the understanding and to provide better guidance for selecting appropriate development approaches, it is important to analyze such combinations in practice. Results obtained from an online survey strongly confirm that hybrid development approaches are widely used in industry. Our results show that hybrid development approaches: (i) have become reality for nearly all companies; (ii) are applied to specific projects even in the presence of company-wide policies for process usage; (iii) are neither planned nor designed but emerge from the evolution of different work practices; and, (iv) are consistently used regardless of company size or industry secto