BoostNet: Bootstrapping detection of socialbots, and a case study from Guatemala

We present a method to reconstruct networks of socialbots given minimal input. Then we use Kernel Density Estimates of Botometer scores from 47,000 social networking accounts to find clusters of automated accounts, discovering over 5,000 socialbots. This statistical and data driven approach allows for inference of thresholds for socialbot detection, as illustrated in a case study we present from Guatemala.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Education and the World's Most Rapid Fertility Decline in Iran

A first analysis of the Iran 2006 census results shows a sensationally low fertility level of 1.9 for the whole country and only 1.5 for the Tehran area (which has about 8 million people). The lowest total fertility rate of 1.3 was recorded for Gilan and Mazandaran provinces. In a recent study, Abbasi-Shavazi and McDonald (2006) emphasized the likely role of greatly improved female education in this trend. However, this hypothesis has not been thoroughly tested and they have not yet provided any formal analysis on this important factor. In the conclusions they express the expectation that fertility in Iran would continue to fall well below replacement level. This paper follows up on the Abbasi-Shavazi and McDonald (2006) paper in two important ways: 1) It presents fertility estimates based on the 2006 census which indicate a substantial further fertility decline; and 2) it presents reconstructions (back to 1970) and projections (to 2030) of the population of Iran by age, sex and level of educational attainment. It decomposes quantitatively to what extent this precipitous fertility decline can be attributed to the rapidly increasing educational attainment of women, and draws more general conclusions for theories of fertility decline

The 15-minute city concept and new working spaces: A planning perspective from Oslo and Lisbon

In the last few years, chrono-urbanism has welcomed a novel perspective, namely, that of the 15-minute city concept, which has recently emerged in the present planning debate. During the current pandemic, this has coincided with a drive to highlight the importance of merging more activities in the neighbourhood to improve urban vitality and reduce daily commuting. In addition, increasing digitalization and knowledge-intensive activities have transformed the nature of work itself, thus affecting the choice of the workplace with new working spaces (NWS) emerging for collaborative and flexible work environments. Therefore, within this context, this study discusses recent chrono-urbanism approaches applied to urban planning and the role of NWS. The phenomenon is empirically examined in Oslo and Lisbon through a qualitative analysis of planning documents and a spatial analysis. The results show that most NWS are fairly accessible by public transport to users in both cities; although the NWS neighbourhoods in Lisbon have a greater diversity of functions compared to Oslo. However, in both cities, the distribution of NWS is non-uniform. This may limit residents’ choice to live and work (outside home) in the same neighbourhood. The study contributes to the current planning debate on new urban models for sustainable neighbourhoods.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Hybrid cities and new working spaces – The case of Oslo

Recent decades have seen the emergence of hybrid models of living and working associated typologies. These developments have been analysed from the perspective of different disciplines, each with their own interpretation of this phenomenon. Planning and architecture have addressed hybridization as a specific form of interaction between spatio-functional features (such as mixed use, multi-functionality and flexibility) and social features (such as formal and informal interactions and the spontaneous appropriation of spaces) or have sometimes simply focused on the spatio-functional dimension in urban spaces. Studies from other disciplines (e.g. mobility networks, transportation, sociology and information technology) have shown that hybrid spaces cannot exist without access to digitalization technologies. Such technologies are accelerating hybridization processes. This study examines the complex and layered phenomenon of hybridization as a possible combination of (or interaction between) spatio-functional, social and digital features within the planning debate and related fields. Most of the case studies explored by scholars so far have focused on interactions occurring between residential, social and recreational functions, but working functions are playing an increasingly important role. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the development of new forms of hybridity in cities. As a consequence, the rising use of hybrid (on-site and on-line) working practices, planners, policy makers and stakeholders, as well as scholars, have increasingly discussed the concept of hybridization. In this context, various hybrid typologies of urban spaces have materialized in forms such as new working spaces (NWS) which include co-working spaces, incubators, as well as some cafés and multi-functional public libraries, which have recently provided working spaces. This paper focuses on the evolving concept of hybridity from the planning perspective. Based on five hybrid NWS including their surrounding neighbourhoods in Oslo, it provides empirical evidence for an understanding of the phenomenon that may support the development of hybrid spaces and buildings and develops suggestions for planning strategies. © 2022 The Author

Floodplain mapping using HEC-RAS and GIS in semi-arid regions of Iran

Abstract A significant deficiency of most computer models used for stream floodplain analysis is that the locations of structures impacted by floodwaters, such as bridges, roads, and buildings, cannot be effectively compared to the floodplain location. This research presents a straightforward approach for processing output of the HEC-RAS hydraulic model, to enable two- and three dimensional floodplain mapping and analysis in the ArcView. The methodology is applied to a reach of Polasjan River Basin, located in Iran central plateau. A digital terrain model is synthesized from HEC-RAS cross-sectional coordinate data and a digital elevation model of the study area. The resulting surface model provides a good representation of the general landscape and contains additional detail within the stream channel. The results of the research indicate that GIS is an effective tool for floodplain mapping and analysis. . , .

Exposure to heat stress in the workplace: A systematic review

Background and aims: Working in hot environments is one of the common physical risks factor in the workplace, which can also cause heat-related illnesses and various health effects on workers, and also increasing the risk of injuries and occupational accidents. The purpose of this paper is review conducted studies about heat stress in different countries, investigation the indices of heat stress, the characteristics of the exposure in hot environments, high-risk occupations, and sutvey the status and importance of these studies. Methods: In this review study used Web of Science, Scopus, Pubmed, ScienceDirect, Iran Medex, Magiran, Google Scholar and SID databases. The keywordsincluded Heat stress, Heat strain, Heat exposure, Heat waves, Workplace, Knowledge and attitude of workers about heat stress, the period of 2000 to 2015 was investigated, and finally 103 original articles were identifed. Results: 90 of all study being cross-sectional studies, 41 being related to outdoor workplaces, and 42 being related to indoor environment. 19 studies were about perceptions and behavioural responses of exposure to heat stress.A range of heat indices were used with 60 (71) studies using Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index (WBGT). Most of studied focused on manufacturing workers and farmers. Most of studies indicated that workers were suffering from heat stress and strain. Conclusion: The results of reviewed studies showed that stress in workplace is worrying due to the nature of the working processes both indoor and outdoor, and of climate change. Therefore it is necessary to considering preventive and control programs to reduce the heat stress by the management and staff's participation to eliminate or reduce its lethal effects. © 2018 JTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services. All rights reserved

Le taux de fécondité totale dans le mariage et ses extensions

What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed conventionally by adding up age-specific marital fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout her childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, and we propose an alternative duration-based TMFR computed in the spirit of parity-progression ratios. At the same time, we extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement (cohabitation, marriage, non-partnered arrangement, and so on). Because each resulting total union-type fertility rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the conventional total fertility rate (TFR), which does not. We embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates and find patterns of relative risks for such variables that reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior in the Romanian data, which we use to illustrate the method. In most cases, these patterns are quite robust against model re-specification, including the shift from the age-based to the duration-based approach. Since, the number of female respondents is “only” about 6,000 (minus records that cannot be used for the current purpose) in a normal single-round GGS, there is considerable inherent random variation in the data set, but we show that simple few-term moving average graduation suffices to overcome this problem.Le taux de fécondité totale en mariage (TFTM) selon l’âge est calculé par convention en sommant les taux de fécondité par âge dans le mariage en vue d’obtenir une estimation du nombre total d’enfants nés d’une femme qui aurait été mariée tout au long de sa vie reproductive. Depuis longtemps les démographes considèrent cette mesure avec scepticisme car elle aboutit souvent à un nombre total d’enfants beaucoup trop élevé. Notre analyse des données du EGG roumain confirme cette constatation et nous proposons dès lors, comme alternative, un TFTM selon la durée, dans l’esprit des probabilités d’agrandissement des familles. Par ailleurs, nous étendons la méthode à tous types de situation de couple (cohabitation, mariage, sans partenaire, etc.). Comme le taux de fécondité totale selon le type d’union (TFTU) tient compte explicitement de la situation de couple, il doit être préféré au TFTM qui ne tient pas compte de ce critère. Notre étude est conduite dans le cadre d’une analyse biographique tenant compte de covariables fixes ou dépendantes du temps. Les résultats de l’analyse nous permettent de découvrir des caractéristiques intéressantes de la fécondité roumaine, que nous utilisons pour illustrer la méthode. Dans la plupart des cas, ces caractéristiques sont robustes face à une re-spécification du modèle, notamment le passage de l’approche basée sur l’âge à l’approche tenant compte de la durée. Comme le nombre de répondants à l’enquête EGG à un passage n’est ‘que’ de l’ordre de 6000 (moins les cas qui n’ont pas pu être utilisés pour le présent travail), il existe une fluctuation aléatoire importante dans les données. Nous montrons toutefois qu’un lissage par moyenne mobile à quelques termes seulement nous permet de surmonter cette difficulté

Trafficking through COPII Stabilises Cell Polarity and Drives Secretion during Drosophila Epidermal Differentiation

BACKGROUND: The differentiation of an extracellular matrix (ECM) at the apical side of epithelial cells implies massive polarised secretion and membrane trafficking. An epithelial cell is hence engaged in coordinating secretion and cell polarity for a correct and efficient ECM formation. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We are studying the molecular mechanisms that Drosophila tracheal and epidermal cells deploy to form their specific apical ECM during differentiation. In this work we demonstrate that the two genetically identified factors haunted and ghost are essential for polarity maintenance, membrane topology as well as for secretion of the tracheal luminal matrix and the cuticle. We show that they code for the Drosophila COPII vesicle-coating components Sec23 and Sec24, respectively, that organise vesicle transport from the ER to the Golgi apparatus. CONCLUSION: Taken together, epithelial differentiation during Drosophila embryogenesis is a concerted action of ECM formation, plasma membrane remodelling and maintenance of cell polarity that all three rely mainly, if not absolutely, on the canonical secretory pathway from the ER over the Golgi apparatus to the plasma membrane. Our results indicate that COPII vesicles constitute a central hub for these processes

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress