Present-day and ice-covered equilibrium states in a comprehensive climate model

We show that in a comprehensive climate model both the current climate and a completely ice-covered Earth are stable states under today's total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 level. We employ the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, at relatively high resolution (horizontally T63 in the atmosphere and 1.5 degrees in the ocean). Setting TSI to near-zero causes a transition from realistic present-day climate to a completely ice-covered state within 15 years; this state persists even when TSI re-assumes today's value. A break-up of the complete ice cover occurs with today's TSI and 100 times – but not with 10 times – today's atmospheric CO2 level. While TSI is near-zero, extremely strong meridional overturning ensues in both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Our results imply that a snowball Earth is possible, in principle, with inception possibly triggered by a brief dark spell

Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence of greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al. The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous transient climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms, at the time when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere had doubled, agrees in geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern Hemisphere. The main reason to this, appear to be connected to changes in the large scale circulation, such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The low level vorticity in the hurricane genesis regions is generally reduced compared to the present climate, while the vertical tropospheric wind shear is somewhat increased. Most tropical storm regions indicate reduced surface windspeeds and a slightly weaker hydrological cycle

Validation and analysis of regional present-day climate and climate change simulations over Europe

In the European Commission (EC) project "Regionalization of Anthropogenic Climate Change Simulations, RACCS, recently terminated, 11 European institutions have carried out tests of dynamical and statistical regionalization techniques. The outcome of the "dynamical part" of the project, utilizing a series of high resolution LAMs and a variable resolution global model (all of which we shall refer to as RCMs, Regional Climate Models), is presented here. The per- formance of the dqterent LAMs had first, in a preceding EC project, been tested with "perfect" boundary forcing fields (ECMWF analyses) and also multi-year present-day climate simula- tions with AMIP "perfect ocean " or mixed layer ocean GCM boundary conditions had been validated against available climatological data. The present report involves results of vali- dation and analysis of RCM present-day climate simulations and anthropogenic climate change experiments. Multi-year (5 - 30 years) present-day climate simulations have been per- formed with resolutions between 19 and 70 km (grid lengths) and with boundary conditions from the newest CGCM simulations. The climate change experiments involve various 2xCO2 - ]xCO2 transient greenhouse gas experiments and in one case also changing sulphur aerosols. A common validation and inter-comparison was made at the coordinating institution, MPIfor Meteorology. The validation of the present-day climate simulations shows the importance of systematic errors in the low level general circulation. Such errors seem to induce large errors in precipitation and surface air temperature in the RCMs as well as in the CGCMs providing boundary conditions. Over Europe the field of systematic errors in the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) usually involve an area of too low pressure, often in the form of an east-west trough across Europe with too high pressure to the north and south. New storm-track analyses confirm that the areas of too low pressure are caused by enhanced cyclonic activity and similarly that the areas of too high pressure are caused by reduced such activity. The precise location and strength of the extremes in the MSLP error field seems to be dependent on the physical param- eterization package used. In model pairs sharing the same package the area of too low pressure is deepened further in the RCM compared to the corresponding CGCM, indicating an increase of the excessive cyclonic activity with increasing resolution. From the experiments performed it seems not possible to decide to what extent the systematic errors in the general circulation are the result of local errors in the physical parameterization schemes or remote errors trans- mitted to the European region via the boundary conditions. Additional errors in precipitation and temperature seems to be due to direct local effects of errors in certain parameterization schemes and errors in the SSTs taken from the CGCMs. For all seasons many biases are fOund to be statistically significant compared to estimates of the internal model variability of the time- slice mean values. In the climate change experiments statistically significant European mean temperature changes which are large compared to the corresponding biases are found. How- ever, the changes in the deviations from the European mean temperature as well as the changes in precipitation are only partly sign wcan ce and are of the same order of magnitude or smaller than the corresponding biases found in the present-day climate simulations. Cases of an inter- action between the systematic model errors and the radiative forcing show that generally the errors are not canceling out when the changes are computed. Therefore, reliable regional cli- mate changes can only be achieved after model improvements which reduce their systematic errors sufficiently. Also in future RCM experiments sujiciently long time-slices must be used in order to obtain statistically sign ijicant climate changes on the sub-continental scale aimed at with the present regionalization technique

Validation of present-day regional climate simulations over Europe: nested LAM and variable resolution global model simulations with observed or mixed layer ocean boundary conditions

Multi-year high resolution present-day climate simulations were made with two limited area models (LAMs) at UKMO and MPI and with a global variable resolution spectral model at Meteo-France. We shall refer to these models as the regional climate models (RCMs). Together with the RCM simulations we verify the similar multi-year simulations made with the corresponding coarse resolution global models. We refer to these models as the GCMs. They are the two coarse resolution GCMs whose output were used for boundary conditions to the LAM simulations and a homogeneous coarse resolution version (T42) of the Meteo-France GCM. In the Meteo-France and the MPI simulations observed (AMIP) SST and sea-ice distributions were used whereas in the UKMO simulations we used SST and sea-ice distributions determined from a mixed layer ocean model coupled to the GCM. In the present assessment the main emphasis is put on the validation of precipitation and surface air temperature simulations. The relatively large biases or systematic errors in these parameters in both the GCM and RCM simulations seem in most cases to be explained as the result of systematic errors in the surface pressure (or the low level flow) and the cyclone activity. In most remaining cases they seem to be due to defects in specific physical parameterization schemes. The UKMO and Meteo-France simulations are 10-year integrations whereas the MPI simulations are integrations of 46-months only

Latent Sensitization in a Mouse Model of Ocular Neuropathic Pain

Purpose: Chronic ocular pain is poorly understood and difficult to manage. We developed a murine model of corneal surface injury (CSI)–induced chronic ocular neuropathic pain. The study focuses on changes in corneal nerve morphology and associated short- and long-term pain-like behavior after CSI. Methods: CSI was induced in mice by local application of an alkali solution (0.75 N NaOH). Corneal nerve architecture, morphology, density, and length were studied. Eye-wiping was evaluated before and after CSI in response to hypertonic saline (2 M NaCl). Naltrexone (NTX) or Naloxone-methiodide (NLX-me), opioid receptor antagonists, were given subcutaneously (s.c., 3 mg/kg) or topically (eye drop, 100 μM), and then an eye-wiping test was performed. Results: CSI caused partial corneal deinnervation followed by gradual reinnervation. Regenerated nerves displayed increased tortuosity, beading, and branching. CSI enhanced hypertonic saline-induced eye-wiping behavior compared to baseline or sham-injury (P \u3c 0.01). This hypersensitivity peaked at 10 days and subsided 14 days after CSI. Administration of NTX, or NLX-me, a selective peripheral opioid antagonist, reinstated eye-wiping behavior in the injury group, but not in the sham groups (P \u3c 0.05). Conclusions: This study introduces a model of chronic ocular pain and corneal neuropathy following CSI. CSI induces central and peripheral opioid receptor-dependent latent sensitization (LS) that is unmasked by systemic or topical administration of opioid antagonists. Translational Relevance: This model of chronic ocular pain establishes LS as a new inhibitory mechanism in the oculotrigeminal system and may be used for potential diagnostic and therapeutic interventions for ocular neuropathy

Ocean circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

This paper describes the mean ocean circulation and the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Results are presented from a version of the coupled model that served as a prototype for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations. The model does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climate. A control simulation with present-day greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), large-scale circulation, meridional heat and freshwater transports, and sea ice are compared with observations. A parameterization that accounts for the effect of ocean currents on surface wind stress is implemented in the model. The largest impact of this parameterization is in the tropical Pacific, where the mean state is significantly improved: the strength of the trade winds and the associated equatorial upwelling weaken, and there is a reduction of the model’s equatorial cold SST bias by more than 1 K. Equatorial SST variability also becomes more realistic. The strength of the variability is reduced by about 30% in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the extension of SST variability into the warm pool is significantly reduced. The dominant El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) period shifts from 3 to 4 yr. Without the parameterization an unrealistically strong westward propagation of SST anomalies is simulated. The reasons for the changes in variability are linked to changes in both the mean state and to a reduction in atmospheric sensitivity to SST changes and oceanic sensitivity to wind anomalies

Educators' working conditions in a day care centre on ownership of a non-profit organization

Background: Working conditions of nursery school teachers have not been scrutinized thoroughly in scientific research. Only a few studies have so far examined work-load and strain in this profession. Preferably, subjective perceptions should be corroborated by data that can be quantified more objectively and accurately. The aim of the present observational field study was to evaluate pedagogical staffs' workflow. Methods: In 2009 eleven educators in a day care centre were observed throughout three complete workdays. A total of 250 working hours were recorded. Results: An educators' workday lasted on average 07:46:59 h (SD = 01:01:10 h).Within this time span, an average of 02:20:46 h (30.14%, SD = 00:28:07 h) were spent on caring, 01:44:18 h on playing (22.33%, SD = 00:54:12 h), 00:49:37 h on educational work (10.62%, SD = 00:40:09), and only 00:05:38 h on individual child contact (1.21%, SD = 00:04:58 h). Conclusion: For the first time, educators' workflow in day care centres was studied in real time. Some of the educators' self-reported problems were corroborated. The results of this study form a basis upon which further investigations can be built and measures can be developed for an overall improvement of child care

Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium

A long-standing task in climate research has been to distinguish between anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. A prerequisite for fulfilling this task is the understanding of the relative roles of external drivers and internal variability of climate and the carbon cycle. Here, we present the first ensemble simulations over the last 1200 years with a comprehensive Earth system model including a fully interactive carbon cycle. Applying up-to-date reconstructions of external forcing including the recent low-amplitude estimates of solar variations, the ensemble simulations reproduce temperature evolutions consistent with the range of reconstructions. The 20th-century warming trend stands out against all pre-industrial trends within the ensemble. Volcanic eruptions are necessary to explain variations in pre-industrial climate such as the Little Ice Age; yet only the strongest, repeated eruptions lead to cooling trends that differ significantly from the internal variability across all ensemble members. The simulated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations exhibit a stable carbon cycle over the pre-industrial era with multi-centennial variations somewhat smaller than in the observational records. Early land-cover changes have modulated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations only slightly. We provide a model-based quantification of the sensitivity (termed γ) of the global carbon cycle to temperature for a variety of climate and forcing conditions. We diagnose a distinct dependence of γ on the forcing strength and time-scales involved, thus providing a possible explanation for the systematic difference in the observational estimates for different segments of the last millennium