Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

As the world's population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions

The Stress-Response Factor SigH Modulates the Interaction between Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Host Phagocytes

The Mycobacterium tuberculosis stress response factor SigH plays a crucial role in modulating the pathogen's response to heat, oxidative-stress, envelope damage and hypoxia. We hypothesized that the lack of this key stress response factor would alter the interaction between the pathogen and its host cells. We compared the interaction of Mtb, Mtb:Δ-sigH and a strain where the mutation had been genetically complemented (Mtb: Δ-sigH:CO) with primary rhesus macaque bone marrow derived macrophages (Rh-BMDMs). The expression of numerous inducible and homeostatic (CCL) β-chemokines and several apoptotic markers was induced to higher levels in the cells infected with Mtb:Δ-sigH, relative to Mtb or the complemented strain. The differential expression of these genes manifested into functional differences in chemotaxis and apoptosis in cells infected with these two strains. The mutant strain also exhibited reduced late-stage survival in Rh-BMDMs. We hypothesize that the product of one or more SigH-dependent genes may modulate the innate interaction of Mtb with host cells, effectively reducing the chemokine-mediated recruitment of immune effector cells, apoptosis of infected monocytes and enhancing the long-term survival and replication of the pathogen in this milieu The significantly higher induction of Prostaglandin Synthetase 2 (PTGS2 or COX2) in Rh-BMDMs infected with Mtb relative to Mtb: Δ-sigH may explain reduced apoptosis in Mtb-infected cells, as PTGS2 is known to inhibit p53-dependent apoptosis.The SigH-regulon modulates the innate interaction of Mtb with host phagocytes, perhaps as part of a strategy to limit its clearance and prolong its survival. The SigH regulon appears to be required to modulate innate immune responses directed against Mtb

Blind testing of shoreline evolution models

International audienceBeaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer timescales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for tairua beach, new Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. in general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999-2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014-2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models' capability to predict the shoreline position. this was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than individual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models. Quantitative prediction of beach erosion and recovery is essential to planning resilient coastal communities with robust strategies to adapt to erosion hazards. Over the last decades, research efforts to understand and predict shoreline evolution have intensified as coastal erosion is likely to be exacerbated by climatic changes 1-5. The social and economic burden of changes in shoreline position are vast, which has inspired development of a growing variety of models based on different approaches and techniques; yet current models can fail (e.g. predicting erosion in accreting conditions). The challenge for shoreline models is, therefore, to provide reliable, robust and realistic predictions of change, with a reasonable computational cost, applicability to a broad variety of systems, and some quantifiable assessment of the uncertainties

Characteristics of hepatitis C virus resistance in an international cohort after a decade of direct-acting antivirals

Background & Aims: Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens provide a cure in >95% of patients with chronic HCV infection. However, in some patients in whom therapy fails, resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) can develop, limiting retreatment options and risking onward resistant virus transmission. In this study, we evaluated RAS prevalence and distribution, including novel NS5A RASs and clinical factors associated with RAS selection, among patients who experienced DAA treatment failure. Methods: SHARED is an international consortium of clinicians and scientists studying HCV drug resistance. HCV sequence linked metadata from 3,355 patients were collected from 22 countries. NS3, NS5A, and NS5B RASs in virologic failures, including novel NS5A substitutions, were examined. Associations of clinical and demographic characteristics with RAS selection were investigated. Results: The frequency of RASs increased from its natural prevalence following DAA exposure: 37% to 60% in NS3, 29% to 80% in NS5A, 15% to 22% in NS5B for sofosbuvir, and 24% to 37% in NS5B for dasabuvir. Among 730 virologic failures, most were treated with first-generation DAAs, 94% had drug resistance in ≥1 DAA class: 31% single-class resistance, 42% dual-class resistance (predominantly against protease and NS5A inhibitors), and 21% triple-class resistance. Distinct patterns containing ≥2 highly resistant RASs were common. New potential NS5A RASs and adaptive changes were identified in genotypes 1a, 3, and 4. Following DAA failure, RAS selection was more frequent in older people with cirrhosis and those infected with genotypes 1b and 4. Conclusions: Drug resistance in HCV is frequent after DAA treatment failure. Previously unrecognized substitutions continue to emerge and remain uncharacterized. Lay summary: Although direct-acting antiviral medications effectively cure hepatitis C in most patients, sometimes treatment selects for resistant viruses, causing antiviral drugs to be either ineffective or only partially effective. Multidrug resistance is common in patients for whom DAA treatment fails. Older patients and patients with advanced liver diseases are more likely to select drug-resistant viruses. Collective efforts from international communities and governments are needed to develop an optimal approach to managing drug resistance and preventing the transmission of resistant viruses

Restoring brain function after stroke - bridging the gap between animals and humans

Stroke is the leading cause of complex adult disability in the world. Recovery from stroke is often incomplete, which leaves many people dependent on others for their care. The improvement of long-term outcomes should, therefore, be a clinical and research priority. As a result of advances in our understanding of the biological mechanisms involved in recovery and repair after stroke, therapeutic opportunities to promote recovery through manipulation of poststroke plasticity have never been greater. This work has almost exclusively been carried out in preclinical animal models of stroke with little translation into human studies. The challenge ahead is to develop a mechanistic understanding of recovery from stroke in humans. Advances in neuroimaging techniques now enable us to reconcile behavioural accounts of recovery with molecular and cellular changes. Consequently, clinical trials can be designed in a stratified manner that takes into account when an intervention should be delivered and who is most likely to benefit. This approach is expected to lead to a substantial change in how restorative therapeutic strategies are delivered in patients after stroke

Evaluating the Psychometric Quality of Social Skills Measures: A Systematic Review

Introduction - Impairments in social functioning are associated with an array of adverse outcomes. Social skills measures are commonly used by health professionals to assess and plan the treatment of social skills difficulties. There is a need to comprehensively evaluate the quality of psychometric properties reported across these measures to guide assessment and treatment planning. Objective - To conduct a systematic review of the literature on the psychometric properties of social skills and behaviours measures for both children and adults. Methods - A systematic search was performed using four electronic databases: CINAHL, PsycINFO, Embase and Pubmed; the Health and Psychosocial Instruments database; and grey literature using PsycExtra and Google Scholar. The psychometric properties of the social skills measures were evaluated against the COSMIN taxonomy of measurement properties using pre-set psychometric criteria. Results - Thirty-Six studies and nine manuals were included to assess the psychometric properties of thirteen social skills measures that met the inclusion criteria. Most measures obtained excellent overall methodological quality scores for internal consistency and reliability. However, eight measures did not report measurement error, nine measures did not report cross-cultural validity and eleven measures did not report criterion validity. Conclusions - The overall quality of the psychometric properties of most measures was satisfactory. The SSBS-2, HCSBS and PKBS-2 were the three measures with the most robust evidence of sound psychometric quality in at least seven of the eight psychometric properties that were appraised. A universal working definition of social functioning as an overarching construct is recommended. There is a need for ongoing research in the area of the psychometric properties of social skills and behaviours instruments

The last dinosaurs of Brazil: The Bauru Group and its implications for the end-Cretaceous mass extinction

ABSTRACT The non-avian dinosaurs died out at the end of the Cretaceous, ~66 million years ago, after an asteroid impact. The prevailing hypothesis is that the effects of the impact suddenly killed the dinosaurs, but the poor fossil record of latest Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian) dinosaurs from outside Laurasia (and even more particularly, North America) makes it difficult to test specific extinction scenarios. Over the past few decades, a wealth of new discoveries from the Bauru Group of Brazil has revealed a unique window into the evolution of terminal Cretaceous dinosaurs from the southern continents. We review this record and demonstrate that there was a diversity of dinosaurs, of varying body sizes, diets, and ecological roles, that survived to the very end of the Cretaceous (Maastrichtian: 72-66 million years ago) in Brazil, including a core fauna of titanosaurian sauropods and abelisaurid and carcharodontosaurid theropods, along with a variety of small-to-mid-sized theropods. We argue that this pattern best fits the hypothesis that southern dinosaurs, like their northern counterparts, were still diversifying and occupying prominent roles in their ecosystems before the asteroid suddenly caused their extinction. However, this hypothesis remains to be tested with more refined paleontological and geochronological data, and we give suggestions for future work