Long-term orbital lifetime predictions

Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction

DEveloping a Complex Intervention for DEteriorating Patients using Theoretical Modelling (DECIDE study): study protocol

AIM: To develop a theory-based complex intervention (targeting nursing staff), to enhance enablers and overcome barriers to enacting expected behaviour when monitoring patients and responding to abnormal vital signs that signal deterioration. DESIGN: A mixed method design including structured observations on hospital wards, field notes, brief, un-recorded interviews and semi-structured interviews to inform the development of an intervention to enhance practice. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with nursing staff using a topic guide informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. Semi-structured interviews will be transcribed verbatim and coded deductively into the 14 Theoretical Domains Framework domains and then inductively into 'belief statements'. Priority domains will be identified and mapped to appropriate behaviour change techniques. Intervention content and mode of delivery (how behaviour change techniques are operationalised) will be developed using nominal groups, during which participants (clinicians) will rank behaviour change techniques /mode of delivery combinations according to acceptability and feasibility. Findings will be synthesised to develop an intervention manual. DISCUSSION: Despite being a priority for clinicians, researchers and policymakers for two decades, 'sub-optimal care' of the deteriorating ward patient persists. Existing interventions have been largely educational (i.e., targeting assumed knowledge deficits) with limited evidence that they change staff behaviour. Staff behaviour when monitoring and responding to abnormal vital signs is likely influenced by a range of mediators that includes barriers and enablers. IMPACT: Systematically applying theory and evidence-based methods, will result in the specification of an intervention which is more likely to result in behaviour change and can be tested empirically in future research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Life interrupted and life regained? Coping with stroke at a young age

Stroke is a leading cause of disability across the developed world, affecting an increasing number of younger people. In this article, we seek to understand the experience of stroke as a disabling life situation among young people and the strategies that they use to recover and cope. Directed content analysis was conducted from interviews with 17 community-dwelling stroke survivors aged 55 years and younger across the United Kingdom. The sample was drawn from a larger maximum variation sample of stroke survivors. Using the sociological concepts of biographical disruption and biographical repair as a guide, excerpts from the interviews pertaining to aspects of the patients’ life that were interrupted, in addition to how they coped with the changes, were selected and analysed. All individuals described an ‘‘altered sense of self,’’ a theme that included loss of identity, family disruption, and/or loss of valued activities. Individuals sought to adapt their sense of self by seeking external support, by restoring normality, and/or through positive reflection. Despite the adapted self that emerged, most individuals continued to experience impairments. While young stroke survivors adapt to their illness over time, they continue to experience impairments and disruptions in their personal and work lives.Aholistic model of rehabilitation that helps individuals regain the capacity for everyday activities related to work, family life, and leisure can begin to address the emotional ramifications of diseases such as stroke, restore wellness, and work towards minimizing the burden felt by family caregivers and children

Life interrupted and life regained? Coping with stroke at a young age

Stroke is a leading cause of disability across the developed world, affecting an increasing number of younger people. In this article, we seek to understand the experience of stroke as a disabling life situation among young people and the strategies that they use to recover and cope. Directed content analysis was conducted from interviews with 17 community-dwelling stroke survivors aged 55 years and younger across the United Kingdom. The sample was drawn from a larger maximum variation sample of stroke survivors. Using the sociological concepts of biographical disruption and biographical repair as a guide, excerpts from the interviews pertaining to aspects of the patients’ life that were interrupted, in addition to how they coped with the changes, were selected and analysed. All individuals described an ‘‘altered sense of self,’’ a theme that included loss of identity, family disruption, and/or loss of valued activities. Individuals sought to adapt their sense of self by seeking external support, by restoring normality, and/or through positive reflection. Despite the adapted self that emerged, most individuals continued to experience impairments. While young stroke survivors adapt to their illness over time, they continue to experience impairments and disruptions in their personal and work lives.Aholistic model of rehabilitation that helps individuals regain the capacity for everyday activities related to work, family life, and leisure can begin to address the emotional ramifications of diseases such as stroke, restore wellness, and work towards minimizing the burden felt by family caregivers and children

Activity Dependent Branching Ratios in Stocks, Solar X-ray Flux, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld Sandpile Model

We define an activity dependent branching ratio that allows comparison of different time series $X_{t}$. The branching ratio $b_x$ is defined as $b_x= E[\xi_x/x]$. The random variable $\xi_x$ is the value of the next signal given that the previous one is equal to $x$, so $\xi_x=\{X_{t+1}|X_t=x\}$. If $b_x>1$, the process is on average supercritical when the signal is equal to $x$, while if $b_x<1$, it is subcritical. For stock prices we find $b_x=1$ within statistical uncertainty, for all $x$, consistent with an ``efficient market hypothesis''. For stock volumes, solar X-ray flux intensities, and the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld (BTW) sandpile model, $b_x$ is supercritical for small values of activity and subcritical for the largest ones, indicating a tendency to return to a typical value. For stock volumes this tendency has an approximate power law behavior. For solar X-ray flux and the BTW model, there is a broad regime of activity where $b_x \simeq 1$, which we interpret as an indicator of critical behavior. This is true despite different underlying probability distributions for $X_t$, and for $\xi_x$. For the BTW model the distribution of $\xi_x$ is Gaussian, for $x$ sufficiently larger than one, and its variance grows linearly with $x$. Hence, the activity in the BTW model obeys a central limit theorem when sampling over past histories. The broad region of activity where $b_x$ is close to one disappears once bulk dissipation is introduced in the BTW model -- supporting our hypothesis that it is an indicator of criticality.Comment: 7 pages, 11 figure

Changes in the diet and body size of a small herbivorous mammal (hispid cotton rat, \u3ci\u3eSigmodon hispidus\u3c/i\u3e) following the late Pleistocene megafauna extinction

The catastrophic loss of large-bodied mammals during the terminal Pleistocene likely led to cascading effects within communities. While the extinction of the top consumers probably expanded the resources available to survivors of all body sizes, little work has focused on the responses of the smallest mammals. Here, we use a detailed fossil record from the southwestern United States to examine the response of the hispid cotton rat Sigmodon hispidus to biodiversity loss and climatic change over the late Quaternary. In particular, we focus on changes in diet and body size. We characterize diet through carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope analysis of bone collagen in fossil jaws and body size through measurement of fossil teeth; the abundance of material allows us to examine population level responses at millennial scale for the past 16 ka. Sigmodon was not present at the cave during the full glacial, first appearing at ~16 ka after ice sheets were in retreat. It remained relatively rare until ~12 ka when warming tempera­tures allowed it to expand its species range northward. We find variation in both diet and body size of Sigmodon hispidus over time: the average body size of the population varied by ~20% (90–110 g) and mean δ13C and δ15N values ranged between −13.5 to −16.5‰ and 5.5 to 7.4‰ respectively. A state–space model suggested changes in mass were influenced by diet, maximum temperature and community structure, while the modest changes in diet were most influenced by community structure. Sigmodon maintained a fairly similar dietary niche over time despite contemporaneous changes in climate and herbivore community composition that followed the megafauna extinc­tion. Broadly, our results suggest that small mammals may be as sensitive to shifts in local biotic interactions within their ecosystem as they are to changes in climate and large-scale biodiversity loss

Scattering statistics of rock outcrops: Model-data comparisons and Bayesian inference using mixture distributions

The probability density function of the acoustic field amplitude scattered by the seafloor was measured in a rocky environment off the coast of Norway using a synthetic aperture sonar system, and is reported here in terms of the probability of false alarm. Interpretation of the measurements focused on finding appropriate class of statistical models (single versus two-component mixture models), and on appropriate models within these two classes. It was found that two-component mixture models performed better than single models. The two mixture models that performed the best (and had a basis in the physics of scattering) were a mixture between two K distributions, and a mixture between a Rayleigh and generalized Pareto distribution. Bayes' theorem was used to estimate the probability density function of the mixture model parameters. It was found that the K-K mixture exhibits significant correlation between its parameters. The mixture between the Rayleigh and generalized Pareto distributions also had significant parameter correlation, but also contained multiple modes. We conclude that the mixture between two K distributions is the most applicable to this dataset.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, Accepted to the Journal of the Acoustical Society of Americ

Standard Model Top Quark Asymmetry at the Fermilab Tevatron

Top quark pair production at proton-antiproton colliders is known to exhibit a forward-backward asymmetry due to higher-order QCD effects. We explore how this asymmetry might be studied at the Fermilab Tevatron, including how the asymmetry depends on the kinematics of extra hard partons. We consider results for top quark pair events with one and two additional hard jets. We further note that a similar asymmetry, correlated with the presence of jets, arises in specific models for parton showers in Monte Carlo simulations. We conclude that the measurement of this asymmetry at the Tevatron will be challenging, but important both for our understanding of QCD and for our efforts to model it.Comment: 26 p., 10 embedded figs., comment added, version to appear in PR

Wong-Zakai approximation of solutions to reflecting stochastic differential equations on domains in Euclidean spaces II

The strong convergence of Wong-Zakai approximations of the solution to the reflecting stochastic differential equations was studied in [2]. We continue the study and prove the strong convergence under weaker assumptions on the domain.Comment: To appear in "Stochastic Analysis and Applications 2014-In Honour of Terry Lyons", Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistic

Genetic alterations and cancer formation in a European flatfish at sites of different contamination burdens

Fish diseases are an indicator for marine ecosystem health since they provide a biological end-point of historical exposure to stressors. Liver cancer has been used to monitor the effects of exposure to anthropogenic pollution in flatfish for many years. The prevalence of liver cancer can exceed 20%. Despite the high prevalence and the opportunity of using flatfish to study environmentally induced cancer, the genetic and environmental factors driving tumor prevalence across sites are poorly understood. This study aims to define the link between genetic deterioration, liver disease progression, and anthropogenic contaminant exposures in the flatfish dab (Limanda limanda). We assessed genetic changes in a conserved cancer gene, Retinoblastoma (Rb), in association with histological diagnosis of normal, pretumor, and tumor pathologies in the livers of 165 fish from six sites in the North Sea and English Channel. The highest concentrations of metals (especially cadmium) and organic chemicals correlated with the presence of tumor pathology and with defined genetic profiles of the Rb gene, from these sites. Different Rb genetic profiles were found in liver tissue near each tumor phenotype, giving insight into the mechanistic molecular-level cause of the liver pathologies. Different Rb profiles were also found at sampling sites of differing contaminant burdens. Additionally, profiles indicated that histological “normal” fish from Dogger sampling locations possessed Rb profiles associated with pretumor disease. This study highlights an association between Rb and specific contaminants (especially cadmium) in the molecular etiology of dab liver tumorigenesis