Polarization of coalitions in an agent-based model of political discourse

Political discourse is the verbal interaction between political actors in a policy domain. This article explains the formation of polarized advocacy or discourse coalitions in this complex phenomenon by presenting a dynamic, stochastic, and discrete agent-based model based on graph theory and local optimization. In a series of thought experiments, actors compute their utility of contributing a specific statement to the discourse by following ideological criteria, preferential attachment, agenda-setting strategies, governmental coherence, or other mechanisms. The evolving macro-level discourse is represented as a dynamic network and evaluated against arguments from the literature on the policy process. A simple combination of four theoretical mechanisms is already able to produce artificial policy debates with theoretically plausible properties. Any sufficiently realistic configuration must entail innovative and path-dependent elements as well as a blend of exogenous preferences and endogenous opinion formation mechanisms

Born radicals? Prevent, positivism, and ‘race-thinking’

In the contemporary Western climate, counter-terrorism discourse dealing with so-called Islamic extremism appears to be obsessed with trying to understand the motives behind what prompts somebody to turn to terrorism. This paper will argue that attempts to locate extremist motives in such a way can be seen to reinforce earlier iterations of positivist criminology and race-thinking. Through a critical examination of the works of criminologist Cesare Lombroso, this paper will tease out the interconnections between his ‘criminal types’ thesis, and the British government’s current Prevent policy that seeks to identify ‘extremist types.’ By developing a rich critique of these positivist approaches, the paper will go on to question how we might think beyond the essentialism, reductivism, and racism/Islamophobia inherent within such frameworks. In this way, the paper raises a series of conceptual implications for criminology and terrorism studies, while at the same time, develops a contribution to critical race and ethnicity studies

Different paths to the modern state in Europe: the interaction between domestic political economy and interstate competition

Theoretical work on state formation and capacity has focused mostly on early modern Europe and on the experience of western European states during this period. While a number of European states monopolized domestic tax collection and achieved gains in state capacity during the early modern era, for others revenues stagnated or even declined, and these variations motivated alternative hypotheses for determinants of fiscal and state capacity. In this study we test the basic hypotheses in the existing literature making use of the large date set we have compiled for all of the leading states across the continent. We find strong empirical support for two prevailing threads in the literature, arguing respectively that interstate wars and changes in economic structure towards an urbanized economy had positive fiscal impact. Regarding the main point of contention in the theoretical literature, whether it was representative or authoritarian political regimes that facilitated the gains in fiscal capacity, we do not find conclusive evidence that one performed better than the other. Instead, the empirical evidence we have gathered lends supports to the hypothesis that when under pressure of war, the fiscal performance of representative regimes was better in the more urbanized-commercial economies and the fiscal performance of authoritarian regimes was better in rural-agrarian economie

Transboundary water interaction III: contest and compliance

This paper serves international water conflict resolution efforts by examining the ways that states contest hegemonic transboundary water arrangements. The conceptual framework of dynamic transboundary water interaction that it presents integrates theories about change and counter-hegemony to ascertain coercive, leverage, and liberating mechanisms through which contest and transformation of an arrangement occur. While the mechanisms can be active through sociopolitical processes either of compliance or of contest of the arrangement, most transboundary water interaction is found to contain elements of both. The role of power asymmetry is interpreted through classification of intervention strategies that seek to either influence or challenge the arrangements. Coexisting contest and compliance serve to explain in part the stasis on the Jordan and Ganges rivers (where the non-hegemons have in effect consented to the arrangement), as well as the changes on the Tigris and Mekong rivers, and even more rapid changes on the Amu Darya and Nile rivers (where the non-hegemons have confronted power asymmetry through influence and challenge). The framework also stresses how transboundary water events that may appear isolated are more accurately read within the many sociopolitical processes and arrangements they are shaped by. By clarifying the typically murky dynamics of interstate relations over transboundary waters, furthermore, the framework exposes a new suite of entry points for hydro-diplomatic initiatives

Energy relations of winter roost-site utilization by American goldfinches ( Carduelis tristis )

American goldfinches ( Carduelis tristis ) were observed roosting in Colorado blue spruce ( Picea pungens ), which comprised part of a mixed stand of conifers. Their winter roost-sites were distally situated among the most densely-needled branches on the leeward sides of these trees. Heated and unheated taxidermic goldfinch mounts were placed within these sites and at the same height in an adjacent clearing. The radiative and convective characteristics of these locations were monitored simultaneously and compared to predicted power requirements of live goldfinches (based on laboratory calibration of heated mounts) and operative temperatures ( T e ; based on body temperatures of unheated mounts). The winter roost-sites significantly reduced radiative and convective heat exchanges between goldfinches and the environment. Based on body composition data for winter goldfinches, all but two birds sampled could endure a 15-h roost period at average overnight T e 's as low as-40°C. In contrast, if these birds were prevented from feeding the following day, only 30% could survive the imposition of a 39-h fast at average T e 's of-2°C. Winter roost-site selection may be more constrained by thermoregulatory considerations in small birds than in larger species.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47760/1/442_2004_Article_BF00379484.pd

Quem ganhou as eleições?: a validação dos resultados antes da criação da justiça eleitoral

O presente artigo revisita a Primeira República brasileira (1894-1930) para elucidar a dinâmica político-partidária do contencioso eleitoral numa fase anterior à consagração da magistratura enquanto órgão proclamador da verdade das urnas, prerrogativa instituída somente com o Código de 1932. Recorremos à crítica dos protestos eleitorais e de suas refutações, quando existentes, apresentados por adversários políticos frente aos resultados dos escrutínios para a Câmara Federal - fontes ainda inéditas, disponíveis nos Diários e Anais da própria Casa legislativa. Os dados levantados mostram que, ao contrário da visão disseminada pela literatura, a degola das oposições não era usual, mas restrita a anos críticos, quando o situacionismo local não conseguia coordenar as disputas regionais pelo poder. Na maioria dos casos, o parlamento, que arbitrava sobre o reconhecimento dos seus diplomados, tendia a ratificar as escolhas adotadas ao nível subnacional. Desta forma, o caso brasileiro alerta para o fato de não se poder ler a adoção de tribunais independentes como mera resposta à solução do contencioso político que ocorria no parlamento, bem limitado. Tal achado nos permite pensar, antes, o advento da Justiça Eleitoral dentro de um projeto de reforma política mais ampla, incluindo a defesa de mecanismos democráticos para as eleições e que antecedem a validação dos votos