Temporal, spatial and household dynamics of Typhoid fever in Kasese district, Uganda

<div><p>Typhoid fever affects 21 million people globally, 1% of whom succumb to the disease. The social, economic and public health consequences of this disease disproportionately affect people in Africa and Asia. In order to design context specific prevention strategies, we need to holistically characterise outbreaks in these settings. In this study, we used retrospective data (2013–2016) at national and district level to characterise temporal and spatial dynamics of Typhoid fever outbreaks using time series and spatial analysis. We then selected cases matched with controls to investigate household socio-economic drivers using a conditional logistic regression model, and also developed a Typhoid fever outbreak-forecasting framework. The incidence rate of Typhoid fever at national and district level was ~ 160 and 60 cases per 100,000 persons per year, respectively, predominantly in urban areas. In Kasese district, Bwera sub-county registered the highest incidence rate, followed by Kisinga, Kitholhu and Nyakiyumbu sub-counties. The male-female case ratio at district level was at 1.68 and outbreaks occurred between the 20^th and 40^th week (May and October) each year following by seven weeks of precipitation. Our forecasting framework predicted outbreaks better at the district level rather than national. We identified a temporal window associated with Typhoid fever outbreaks in Kasese district, which is preceded by precipitation, flooding and displacement of people. We also observed that areas with high incidence of Typhoid fever also had high environmental contamination with limited water treatment. Taken together with the forecasting framework, this knowledge can inform the development of specific control and preparedness strategies at district and national level.</p></div

Clinical and Molecular Epidemiology of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever in Humans in Uganda, 2013-2019

Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is endemic in Uganda, yet its epidemiology remains largely uncharacterized. To better understand its occurrence within Uganda, case reports of patients hospitalized with CCHF between 2013 and 2019 were reviewed. Further, genome sequences of CCHF-positive RNA obtained during this period were determined for phylogenetic comparisons. We found that a total of 32 cases (75% males; CFR, 31.2%), aged between 9 to 68 years, were reported during the study period. Most cases were detected during July to December of each outbreak year (81.2%; P < 0.01) and were located along the "cattle corridor" (68.7%, P = 0.03). The most common presenting symptoms were fever (93.8%), hemorrhage (81.3%), headache (78.1 %), fatigue (68.8%), vomiting (68.8%), and myalgia (65.6%). In five patients for whom hematological data were available, varied abnormalities were observed including thrombocytopenia, leukopenia, anemia, lymphopenia, lymphocytosis, polycythemia, and microcytosis. About 56.3% (P = 0.47) of patients reported tick bites or exposure to livestock as their potential source of infection. Person-to-person transmission was suspected for two cases. Using unbiased metagenomics, we found that the viral S- and L- segments have remained conserved in Africa 2 Glade since the 1950s. In contrast, the M segment split into two geographically interspersed Glades; one that belongs to Africa 2 and another that is ancestral to Africa 1 and 2. Overall, this data summarizes information on the history and clinical presentation of human CCHF in Uganda. Importantly, it identifies vulnerable populations as well as temporal and geographic regions in Uganda where surveillance and control interventions could be focused

Exposure of Egyptian Rousette Bats (\u3ci\u3eRousettus aegyptiacus\u3c/i\u3e) and a Little Free-Tailed Bat (\u3ci\u3eChaerephon pumilus\u3c/i\u3e) to Alphaviruses in Uganda

The reservoir for zoonotic o’nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) has remained unknown since this virus was first recognized in Uganda in 1959. Building on existing evidence for mosquito bloodfeeding on various frugivorous bat species in Uganda, and seroprevalence for arboviruses among bats in Uganda, we sought to assess if serum samples collected from bats in Uganda demonstrated evidence of exposure to ONNV or the closely related zoonotic chikungunya virus (CHIKV). In total, 652 serum samples collected from six bat species were tested by plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) for neutralizing antibodies against ONNV and CHIKV. Forty out of 303 (13.2%) Egyptian rousettes from Maramagambo Forest and 1/13 (8%) little free-tailed bats from Banga Nakiwogo, Entebbe contained neutralizing antibodies against ONNV. In addition, 2/303 (0.7%) of these Egyptian rousettes contained neutralizing antibodies to CHIKV, and 8/303 (2.6%) contained neutralizing antibodies that were nonspecifically reactive to alphaviruses. These data support the interepidemic circulation of ONNV and CHIKV in Uganda, although Egyptian rousette bats are unlikely to serve as reservoirs for these viruses given the inconsistent occurrence of antibody-positive bats

Discovery and Characterization of Bukakata orbivirus (\u3ci\u3eReoviridae:Orbivirus\u3c/i\u3e), a Novel Virus from a Ugandan Bat

While serological and virological evidence documents the exposure of bats to medically important arboviruses, their role as reservoirs or amplifying hosts is less well-characterized. We describe a novel orbivirus (Reoviridae:Orbivirus) isolated from an Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus leachii) trapped in 2013 in Uganda and named Bukakata orbivirus. This is the fifth orbivirus isolated from a bat, however genetic information had previously only been available for one bat-associated orbivirus. We performed whole-genome sequencing on Bukakata orbivirus and three other bat-associated orbiviruses (Fomede, Ife, and Japanaut) to assess their phylogenetic relationship within the genus Orbivirus and develop hypotheses regarding potential arthropod vectors. Replication kinetics were assessed for Bukakata orbivirus in three different vertebrate cell lines. Lastly, qRT-PCR and nested PCR were used to determine the prevalence of Bukakata orbivirus RNA in archived samples from three populations of Egyptian fruit bats and one population of cave-associated soft ticks in Uganda. Complete coding sequences were obtained for all ten segments of Fomede, Ife, and Japanaut orbiviruses and for nine of the ten segments for Bukakata orbivirus. Phylogenetic analysis placed Bukakata and Fomede in the tick-borne orbivirus clade and Ife and Japanaut within the Culicoides/phlebotomine sandfly orbivirus clade. Further, Bukakata and Fomede appear to be serotypes of the Chobar Gorge virus species. Bukakata orbivirus replicated to high titers (106–107 PFU/mL) in Vero, BHK-21 [C-13], and R06E (Egyptian fruit bat) cells. Preliminary screening of archived bat and tick samples do not support Bukakata orbivirus presence in these collections, however additional testing is warranted given the phylogenetic associations observed. This study provided complete coding sequence for several bat-associated orbiviruses and in vitro characterization of a bat-associated orbivirus. Our results indicate that bats may play an important role in the epidemiology of viruses in the genus Orbivirus and further investigation is warranted into vector-host associations and ongoing surveillance efforts

Discovery and Characterization of Bukakata orbivirus (\u3ci\u3eReoviridae:Orbivirus\u3c/i\u3e), a Novel Virus from a Ugandan Bat

While serological and virological evidence documents the exposure of bats to medically important arboviruses, their role as reservoirs or amplifying hosts is less well-characterized. We describe a novel orbivirus (Reoviridae:Orbivirus) isolated from an Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus leachii) trapped in 2013 in Uganda and named Bukakata orbivirus. This is the fifth orbivirus isolated from a bat, however genetic information had previously only been available for one bat-associated orbivirus. We performed whole-genome sequencing on Bukakata orbivirus and three other bat-associated orbiviruses (Fomede, Ife, and Japanaut) to assess their phylogenetic relationship within the genus Orbivirus and develop hypotheses regarding potential arthropod vectors. Replication kinetics were assessed for Bukakata orbivirus in three different vertebrate cell lines. Lastly, qRT-PCR and nested PCR were used to determine the prevalence of Bukakata orbivirus RNA in archived samples from three populations of Egyptian fruit bats and one population of cave-associated soft ticks in Uganda. Complete coding sequences were obtained for all ten segments of Fomede, Ife, and Japanaut orbiviruses and for nine of the ten segments for Bukakata orbivirus. Phylogenetic analysis placed Bukakata and Fomede in the tick-borne orbivirus clade and Ife and Japanaut within the Culicoides/phlebotomine sandfly orbivirus clade. Further, Bukakata and Fomede appear to be serotypes of the Chobar Gorge virus species. Bukakata orbivirus replicated to high titers (106–107 PFU/mL) in Vero, BHK-21 [C-13], and R06E (Egyptian fruit bat) cells. Preliminary screening of archived bat and tick samples do not support Bukakata orbivirus presence in these collections, however additional testing is warranted given the phylogenetic associations observed. This study provided complete coding sequence for several bat-associated orbiviruses and in vitro characterization of a bat-associated orbivirus. Our results indicate that bats may play an important role in the epidemiology of viruses in the genus Orbivirus and further investigation is warranted into vector-host associations and ongoing surveillance efforts

First laboratory confirmation and sequencing of Zaire ebolavirus in Uganda following two independent introductions of cases from the 10th Ebola Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, June 2019.

Uganda established a domestic Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF) testing capacity in 2010 in response to the increasing occurrence of filovirus outbreaks. In July 2018, the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced its 10th Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak and for the duration of the outbreak, the Ugandan Ministry of Health (MOH) initiated a national EVD preparedness stance. Almost one year later, on 10th June 2019, three family members who had contracted EVD in the DRC crossed into Uganda to seek medical treatment. Samples were collected from all the suspected cases using internationally established biosafety protocols and submitted for VHF diagnostic testing at Uganda Virus Research Institute. All samples were initially tested by RT-PCR for ebolaviruses, marburgviruses, Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) virus. Four people were identified as being positive for Zaire ebolavirus, marking the first report of Zaire ebolavirus in Uganda. In-country Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) and phylogenetic analysis was performed for the first time in Uganda, confirming the outbreak as imported from DRC at two different time point from different clades. This rapid response by the MoH, UVRI and partners led to the control of the outbreak and prevention of secondary virus transmission

Uganda's experience in Ebola virus disease outbreak preparedness, 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: Since the declaration of the 10th Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in DRC on 1st Aug 2018, several neighboring countries have been developing and implementing preparedness efforts to prevent EVD cross-border transmission to enable timely detection, investigation, and response in the event of a confirmed EVD outbreak in the country. We describe Uganda's experience in EVD preparedness. RESULTS: On 4 August 2018, the Uganda Ministry of Health (MoH) activated the Public Health Emergency Operations Centre (PHEOC) and the National Task Force (NTF) for public health emergencies to plan, guide, and coordinate EVD preparedness in the country. The NTF selected an Incident Management Team (IMT), constituting a National Rapid Response Team (NRRT) that supported activation of the District Task Forces (DTFs) and District Rapid Response Teams (DRRTs) that jointly assessed levels of preparedness in 30 designated high-risk districts representing category 1 (20 districts) and category 2 (10 districts). The MoH, with technical guidance from the World Health Organisation (WHO), led EVD preparedness activities and worked together with other ministries and partner organisations to enhance community-based surveillance systems, develop and disseminate risk communication messages, engage communities, reinforce EVD screening and infection prevention measures at Points of Entry (PoEs) and in high-risk health facilities, construct and equip EVD isolation and treatment units, and establish coordination and procurement mechanisms. CONCLUSION: As of 31 May 2019, there was no confirmed case of EVD as Uganda has continued to make significant and verifiable progress in EVD preparedness. There is a need to sustain these efforts, not only in EVD preparedness but also across the entire spectrum of a multi-hazard framework. These efforts strengthen country capacity and compel the country to avail resources for preparedness and management of incidents at the source while effectively cutting costs of using a "fire-fighting" approach during public health emergencies

Marburg virus disease outbreak in Kween District Uganda, 2017: Epidemiological and laboratory findings.

INTRODUCTION: In October 2017, a blood sample from a resident of Kween District, Eastern Uganda, tested positive for Marburg virus. Within 24 hour of confirmation, a rapid outbreak response was initiated. Here, we present results of epidemiological and laboratory investigations. METHODS: A district task force was activated consisting of specialised teams to conduct case finding, case management and isolation, contact listing and follow up, sample collection and testing, and community engagement. An ecological investigation was also carried out to identify the potential source of infection. Virus isolation and Next Generation sequencing were performed to identify the strain of Marburg virus. RESULTS: Seventy individuals (34 MVD suspected cases and 36 close contacts of confirmed cases) were epidemiologically investigated, with blood samples tested for MVD. Only four cases met the MVD case definition; one was categorized as a probable case while the other three were confirmed cases. A total of 299 contacts were identified; during follow- up, two were confirmed as MVD. Of the four confirmed and probable MVD cases, three died, yielding a case fatality rate of 75%. All four cases belonged to a single family and 50% (2/4) of the MVD cases were female. All confirmed cases had clinical symptoms of fever, vomiting, abdominal pain and bleeding from body orifices. Viral sequences indicated that the Marburg virus strain responsible for this outbreak was closely related to virus strains previously shown to be circulating in Uganda. CONCLUSION: This outbreak of MVD occurred as a family cluster with no additional transmission outside of the four related cases. Rapid case detection, prompt laboratory testing at the Uganda National VHF Reference Laboratory and presence of pre-trained, well-prepared national and district rapid response teams facilitated the containment and control of this outbreak within one month, preventing nationwide and global transmission of the disease

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an