The DICER Model: Methodological Issues and Initial Results

This paper introduces DICER, a model for the integrated assessment of climate – economy interactions within an optimal growth framework developed based on the structure of the DICE2007 model. We present the methodological differences introduced so far in DICER and some preliminary results of its deterministic version. We observe interesting results in comparison to other IAMs, such as (i) lower peak temperatures; (ii) radiative forcing differences; (iii) differences in control rates; and (iv) sensitivity of results to parameters such as climate sensitivity. A further innovation of this work has been to account for uncertainty and risk through an application of option pricing. The method allows for a simple representation of the risks through measures of volatility in the damages and abatement costs and shows that taking these factors into account lowers maximum mean temperatures by about 0.5oC. We also present some methodological issues that need to be dealt with in the near future in DICER.Climate change, Integrated Impact Assessment Model (IAM), damage function

Literary translation as a creative activity

The modern theory of translation is a searching of extralinguistic, socio-cultural and psychological factors that shape its strategy and norms as a creative activity. We analyse the story "Tree and Leaf" written by J. R. R. Tolkien as a creative activity. We point out 3 different types of translations made by E. Gippius, S. Koshelev and O. Stepashkina. We state that the title is a "collapsed" text that incorporates cultural, historical, ethnic, linguistic information. We also pay attention to linguistic specific of the main character’s name that has transformations in three different versions of the translationyesБелгородский государственный университе

Cost and benefits of deep decarbonization in Russia

With the new Paris climate agreement, 185 of 197 nations have committed to lower emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases. The intent is to limit global temperature growth within 2 degrees Celsius (°C), with a hopeful target of 1.5°C. At the same time, a special report from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that large emission reductions, in fact, must be achieved by 2030 if the temperature increase is to remain below 1.5°C. This goal requires every country to radically cut their greenhouse gas emissions by rebuilding both their energy supply and end-use sectors. Even bigger challenges confront those countries which export fossil fuel resources, as they must also find new sources of economic activity to replace revenues that will be lost from the significantly reduced energy sales. The overall economic impact of this transformation is hard to quantify. On the one hand, decarbonization requires an initial set of large-scale policy, program, and research and development expenditures. It will also entail higher upfront investments in energy efficiency and alternative energy resources. Based on conventional wisdom, these outlays will create an initial burden on the economy. On the other hand, the additional infrastructure investments will also stimulate economic activity, reduce future energy expenditures and also provide an array of other non-energy benefits. In this paper, we propose a thought experiment that explores the idea of prospective positive net economic impacts of decarbonization strategies for an energy-producing nation. Our results suggest that the positive productivity benefits of decarbonization strategies can overcome negative costs in both the short and long terms. We also note additional effects that are consistent with the officially announced long-term goals of modernization and reducing the Russian economy’s dependence on revenues from energy and raw material exports

Restoration of Forest Live Cover and Understory in Pinetum of Former Agricultural Lands

The article presents the study of the restoration processes of vegetation in stands of pine and spruce on lands formerly used for agricultural purposes. The standard methods used in phytocenological and pedologic studies are used. It is noted that a high content of organic matter can not be a limiting factor in the growth and development of living soil cover and does not affect its projective cover. Depending on the care of stands by applying fertilizers and using herbicides, the species composition of forest live cover varies while the dominant species are preserved. The number of woody species is considerably large in pure pine cultures in comparison with those of experimental sites, where fertilizers and herbicides were applied and understory is completely absent. It should be noted that more intensive recovery is observed in pine stands treated with herbicides. In cultures of old-age pine and spruce, the natural recovery of spruce is constrained by the vegetation of understories and the canopy of forest stand. After the formation of the closed canopy of forest stand, forest site factor and heterogeneity of the soil cover are mitigated by low light under the canopy. Thus, forest live cover becomes more uniform

ДИНАМИКА КОЛЕБАНИЙ СТЕРЖНЯ, ПРИКРЕПЛЕННОГО К УПРУГОМУ ЭЛЕМЕНТУ

The paper presents a calculation of static and dynamic component of the displacement of the rod attached to an elastic element. A mathematical model of the dynamic processes of the rod, supported by a spring is supposed. The equations obtained by solving the wave equation, allow us to estimate the influence of the elastic properties of the springs on the movement of the rod. On the basis of the results suggested devices and ultrasound system with an elastic element.Приведен расчет статической и динамической составляющих перемещений стержня, прикрепленного к упругому элементу. Предложена математическая модель динамических процессов стержня, подкрепленного к пружине. Полученные уравнения на основе решения волнового уравнения позволяют оценить влияние упругих свойств пружины на перемещение стержня. На основе полученных результатов предложены устройства и ультразвуковая система с упругим элементом

Генетичний поліморфізм свиней породи ландрас на основі мікросателітних маркерів

The aim of this study was to analyze the genetic variability and population structure of the Landrace population by using 12 microsatellite markers. A total of 90 pigs representing one commercial breed (Landrace) were sampled. Twelve microsatellite loci (SW24, S0155, SW72, SW951, S0386, S0355, SW240, SW857, S0101, SW936 SW911 and S0228) were selected and belong to the list of microsatellite markers recommended by FAO/ISAG. GenAIEx software was used to calculate the allele frequencies, effective number of alleles (Ae), observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosity, within-population inbreeding estimate (Fis), Shannon’s information index (ISh). Overall allele frequency values ranged from 0.006 to 0.9333 (at allele SW951120). The number of observed alleles (Na) detected ranged from 5 (S0155 and SW911) to 13 (SW72), with an overall mean of 9.00 ± 0.80 and a total of 108 alleles were observed at these loci. However, the effective number of alleles (Ae) ranged from 1.57 (SW951) to 5.49 (SW240) with a mean of 3.29 ± 0.33. Shannon’s information index (ISh) which measures the level of diversity, was sufficiently high – from 0.79 (for SW951) to 2.01 (for SW240) – with a mean of 1.43 ± 0.09. The overall means for observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosities were 0.578 ± 0.009 and 0.662 ± 0.004, respectively, which ranged from 0.307 (SW951) to 0.814 (SW857) and 0.361 (SW951) to 0.818 (SW240), respectively. Of the 12 microsatellites analyzed using Fisher’s exact test, 50% were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and 6 were out of equilibrium (P < 0.05). Three mutation models namely, infinite allele model (I.A.M.), two phase model (T.P.M.), stepwise mutation model (S.M.M.) were estimated using the BOTTLENECK software. The results are indicated that the Landrace pig population is non-bottlenecked and remained at mutation-drift equilibrium. The study stands first in genetic characterization of the Ukrainian Landrace pig population through microsatellite markers. The various parameters and values used to quantify genetic variability, such as the high mean (and effective) number of alleles and the expected and observed heterozygosities, indicated high genetic variability in the Ukrainian Landrace pigs. The population has not undergone any recent and/or sudden reduction in the effective population size and remained at mutation-drift equilibrium.Мета цього дослідження полягала в тому, щоб проаналізувати генетичну мінливість і структуру популяції свиней породи ландрас з використанням 12 мікросателітних локусів. Всього було досліджено 90 свиней, які представляють одну комерційну породу (ландрас). Було обрано 12 мікросателітних локусів (SW24, S0155, SW72, SW951, S0386, S0355, SW240, SW857, S0101, SW936 SW911 і S0228), які входять до списку мікросателітних маркерів, рекомендованих ФАО / ISAG. Для розрахунку частот алелей, ефективного числа алелей (Ae), фактичної (Ho) і очікуваної (He) гетерозиготності, оцінки інбридингу (Fis), інформаційного індексу Шеннона (ISh). використовувалося програмне забезпечення GenAIEx. В цілому, частота алелей варіювала від 0,006 до 0,9333 (для алелі SW951120). Число алелей (Na) варіювало від 5 (S0155 і SW911) до 13 (SW72) із середнім значенням 9,00 ± 0,80. Загалом для цих локусів було виявлено108 алелей. Однак ефективне число алелей (Ae) варіювало від 1,57 (SW951) до 5,49 (SW240) із середнім значенням 3,29 ± 0,33. Інформаційний індекс Шеннона (ISh), який свідчить про рівень різноманітності, був досить високим – від 0,79 (для SW951) до 2,01 (для SW240) – із середнім значенням 1,43 ± 0,09. Середні значення фактичної (Ho) та очікуваної (He) гетерозиготності становили 0,578 ± 0,009 і 0,662 ± 0,004, відповідно і варіювали від 0,307 (SW951) до 0,814 (SW857) і від 0,361 (SW951) до 0,818 (SW240) відповідно. Із 12 локусів мікросателітів, проаналізованих з використанням точного тесту Фішера, 50% перебували в стані рівноваги Харді-Вайнберга, а решта – відхилялися від нього (Р < 0,05). З використанням програмного забезпечення BOTTLENECK оцінювалися три мутаційні моделі, а саме: модель нескінченного числа алелей (I.A.M.), двохфазна модель (T.P.M.), модель покрокової мутації (S.M.M.). Результати свідчать, що для популяції свиней породи ландрас не відзначено bottleneck-ефекту і вона перебувала в стані рівноваги між мутаційним процесом і дрейфом генів. У дослідженні вперше наведена генетична характеристика української популяції свиней породи ландрас з використанням поліморфізму мікросателітних локусів. Різні параметри, які використовуються для кількісної оцінки генетичної мінливості, дають високі оцінки середнього (і ефективного) числа алелей, очікуваної і фактичної гетерозиготності, що вказує на високу генетичну мінливість української популяції свиней породи ландрас. Популяція не зазнала будь-яких недавніх і/або раптових скорочень ефективної чисельності і залишалася в стані рівноваги між мутаційним процесом і дрейфом генів.&nbsp

The DICER Model: Methodological Issues and Initial Results

31 p.This paper introduces DICER, a model for the integrated assessment of climate – economy interactions within an optimal growth framework developed based on the structure of the DICE2007 model. We present the methodological differences introduced so far in DICER and some preliminary results of its deterministic version. We observe interesting results in comparison to other IAMs, such as (i) lower peak temperatures; (ii) radiative forcing differences; (iii) differences in control rates; and (iv) sensitivity of results to parameters such as climate sensitivity. A further innovation of this work has been to account for uncertainty and risk through an application of option pricing. The method allows for a simple representation of the risks through measures of volatility in the damages and abatement costs and shows that taking these factors into account lowers maximum mean temperatures by about 0.5oC. We also present some methodological issues that need to be dealt with in the near future in DICER

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.Across the full range of publications in the field of economics of climate change there is perhaps only one firm agreement: both costs and benefits of climate policy are highly uncertain. In an ideal world one would wait until a good deal of uncertainty is resolved and then make a final decision. Usually in the economic literature it would be interpreted as adopting a relatively weak policy now and adjusting it later. Unfortunately, in the context of path-dependency and irreversibility of climatic events there is no way to preserve a full flexibility for the future: near-term selection of an interim climate policy implies some irreversible consequences. Continued accumulation of GHG in the atmosphere makes some policy targets (expressed in temperature level or GHG ppm concentration) infeasible. The paper examines the application of real option analysis to calculate costs and benefits of an interim climate policy. In contrast to conventional CBA, the proposed methodology also accounts for lost and gained flexibility attributed to the adoption of an interim target

ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ДВУХМАССОВОЙ АКУСТИЧЕСКОЙ СИСТЕМЫ С УПРУГИМ ЭЛЕМЕНТОМ

The paper presents a calculation of two-mass vibrating system, which has a resilient element in an energy  storage device. Graphical results of calculations in the form of sampling analogue-frequency characteristics are given in the paper. Представлены расчет двухмассовой вибрационной системы с упругим элементом в устройстве накопления энергии и графические результаты расчетов в виде выборочных аналого-частотных характеристик.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ФОРМЫ КОЛЬЦЕВОГО КОНЦЕНТРАТОРА УЛЬТРАЗВУКОВОЙ СИСТЕМЫ НА КОЭФФИЦИЕНТ УСИЛЕНИЯ АМПЛИТУДЫ КОЛЕБАНИЙ

The paper contains a theoretical underpinning on creation of ultrasonic vibration concentrators based on annular elastic elements with non-circular (ellipse-like) eccentric shape of internal contour. Shape of internal contour in polar coordinates is described by Fourier series relative to angular coordinate that consists of a constant term and first and second harmonics. An effect of geometric parameters of the concentrator on amplification factor and natural vibration frequencies has been investigated with the help of a finite element method. The paper reveals the possibility to control an amplification factor of annular concentrators while varying eccentricity of internal contour and mean value of cross-section thickness. The amplification factor satisfies a condition K < N, where N is thickness ratio of amplifier input and output sections, and it is decreasing with increase of vibration mode order. The similar condition has been satisfied for conical bar concentrator with the difference that in the case of bar concentrators an amplification is ensured due to variation of diameter and N will represent ratio of diameters. It has been proved that modification of internal contour shape makes it possible to carry out a wide-band tuning of natural frequencies of concentrator vibrations without alteration of its overall dimensions and substantial change of amplification factor, which is important for frequency matching of the concentrator and ultrasonic vibratory system. Advantages of the proposed concentrators include simplicity of design and manufacturing, small overall dimensions, possibility for natural frequency tuning by means of static load variation. The developed concentrators can find their application in ultrasonic devices and instruments for technological and medical purposes.В статье дано теоретическое обоснование создания концентраторов ультразвуковых колебаний на основе кольцевых упругих элементов с некруглым (эллипсообразным) эксцентричным профилем внутреннего контура. Форма внутреннего контура в полярных координатах описывается рядом Фурье по угловой координате, состоящим из постоянного члена и первой и второй гармоник. С помощью метода конечных элементов исследовано влияние геометрических параметров концентратора на коэффициент усиления и собственные частоты колебаний. Показана возможность управления коэффициентом усиления кольцевых концентраторов путем изменения эксцентриситета внутреннего контура и среднего значения толщины поперечного сечения. Коэффициент усиления удовлетворяет условию K < N, где N – отношение толщин входного и выходного сечений концентратора, и снижается с увеличением порядка моды колебаний. Аналогичное условие выполняется для стержневого конического концентратора, с той разницей, что в случае стержневых концентраторов усиление обеспечивается за счет изменения диаметра, а N представляет собой отношение диаметров. Показано, что изменение формы внутреннего контура позволяет регулировать собственные частоты колебаний концентратора в широком диапазоне без изменения габаритных размеров и существенного изменения коэффициента усиления, что важно для частотного согласования концентратора с ультразвуковой колебательной системой. Преимуществами предложенных концентраторов являются простота конструкции и изготовления, малые габаритные размеры, возможность регулировки собственной частоты колебаний путем изменения статической нагрузки. Разработанные концентраторы могут найти применение в ультразвуковых установках и приборах технологического и медицинского назначения