An economy model for GISMO: DART-PBL technical documentation

The Global Integrated Sustainability Model (GISMO), developed at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), is a platform for analysing the complexity of sustainable development and human well-being with regards to the three sustainability domains: People, Planet, and Profit (PPP). The economic structure of the GISMO1.0 model is the International Futures model, developed at the University of Denver. To better address price behaviour in the model, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model DART, developed by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, was included in the GISMO framework and integrated with the International Futures model. The DART model is tuned to the needs of the GISMO project, and is further referred to as DART-PBL. This report provides an overview of the main changes and additions to the original DART model. The changes and additions include: 1) region and sector aggregation compatible with the GISMO framework; 2) human capital accumulation based on demographics, educational attainment and health level to better address human well-being; 3) introduction of a Linear Expenditure System to distinguish between basic and luxury consumption; 4) adjusted savings to take into account different saving patterns of a changing population structure; 5) heterogenic land prices linked with the IMAGE framework to address land scarcity and environmental impacts; and 6) partial labour mobility between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, to assess changes in income distribution

The Fold-in, Fold-out Design for DCE Choice Tasks: Application to Burden of Disease

Background. In discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), choice alternatives are described by attributes. The importance of each attribute can be quantified by analyzing respondents’ choices. Estimates are valid only if alternatives are defined comprehensively, but choice tasks can become too difficult for respondents if too many attributes are included. Several solutions for this dilemma have been proposed, but these have practical or theoretical drawbacks and cannot be applied in all settings. The objective of the current article is to demonstrate an alternative solution, the fold-in, fold-out approach (FiFo). We use a motivating example, the ABC Index for burden of disease in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Methods. Under FiFo, all attributes are part of all choice sets, but they are grouped into domains. These are either folded in (all attributes have the same level) or folded out (levels may differ). FiFo was applied to the valuation of the ABC Index, which included 15 attributes. The data were analyzed in Bayesian mixed logit regression, with additional parameters to account for increased complexity in folded-out questionnaires and potential differences in weight due to the folding status of dom

Evaluation of effectiveness of 45S5 bioglass doped with niobium for repairing critical-sized bone defect in in vitro and in vivo models

Here, we investigated the biocompatibility of a bioactive sodium calcium silicate glass containing 2.6 mol% Nb2O5 (denoted BGPN2.6) and compare the results with the archetypal 45S5 bioglass. The glass bioactivity was tested using a range of in vitro and in vivo experiments to assess its suitability for bone regeneration applications. in vitro studies consisted of assessing the cytocompatibility of the BGPN2.6 glass with bone-marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSCs). Systemic biocompatibility was verified by means of the quantification of biochemical markers and histopathology of liver, kidneys, and muscles. The glass genotoxicity was assessed using the micronucleus test. The regeneration of a calvarial defect was assessed using both qualitative and quantitative analysis of three-dimensional microcomputed tomography images. The BGPN2.6 glass was not cytotoxic to BM-MSCs. It is systemically biocompatible causing no signs of damage to high metabolic and excretory organs such as the liver and kidneys. No mutagenic potential was observed in the micronucleus test. MicroCT images showed that BGPN2.6 was able to nearly fully regenerate a critical-sized calvarial defect and was far superior to standard 45S5 Bioglass. Defects filled with BGPN2.6 glass showed over 90% coverage compare to just 66% for 45S5 Bioglass. For one animal the defect was completely filled in 8 weeks. These results clearly show that Nb-containing bioactive glasses are a safe and effective biomaterial for bone replacement

Data for long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

This dataset represents long-term marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves of all major emission sources of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs); methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6). The work is based on existing short-term MAC curve datasets and recent literature on individual mitigation measures. The data represent a comprehensive set of MAC curves, covering all major non-CO2 emission sources for 26 aggregated world regions. They are suitable for long-term global mitigation scenario development, as dynamical elements (technological progress, removal of implementation barriers) are included. The data is related to the research article: "Long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases

Evidence for a mixed mass composition at the `ankle' in the cosmic-ray spectrum

We report a first measurement for ultra-high energy cosmic rays of the correlation between the depth of shower maximum and the signal in the water Cherenkov stations of air-showers registered simultaneously by the fluorescence and the surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory. Such a correlation measurement is a unique feature of a hybrid air-shower observatory with sensitivity to both the electromagnetic and muonic components. It allows an accurate determination of the spread of primary masses in the cosmic-ray flux. Up till now, constraints on the spread of primary masses have been dominated by systematic uncertainties. The present correlation measurement is not affected by systematics in the measurement of the depth of shower maximum or the signal in the water Cherenkov stations. The analysis relies on general characteristics of air showers and is thus robust also with respect to uncertainties in hadronic event generators. The observed correlation in the energy range around the `ankle' at $\lg(E/{\rm eV})=18.5-19.0$ differs significantly from expectations for pure primary cosmic-ray compositions. A light composition made up of proton and helium only is equally inconsistent with observations. The data are explained well by a mixed composition including nuclei with mass $A > 4$. Scenarios such as the proton dip model, with almost pure compositions, are thus disfavoured as the sole explanation of the ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray flux at Earth.Comment: Published version. Added journal reference and DOI. Added Report Numbe

ABC Index: quantifying experienced burden of COPD in a discrete choice experiment and predicting costs

OBJECTIVE: The Assessment of Burden of COPD (ABC) tool supports shared decision making between patient and caregiver. It includes a coloured balloon diagram to visualise patients' scores on burden indicators. We aim to determine the importance of each indicator from a patient perspective, in order to calculate a weighted index score and investigate whether that score is predictive of costs.DESIGN: Discrete choice experiment.SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Primary care and secondary care in the Netherlands. 282 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 252 members of the general public participated.METHODS: Respondents received 14 choice questions and indicated which of two health states was more severe. Health states were described in terms of specific symptoms, limitations in physical, daily and social activities, mental problems, fatigue and exacerbations, most of which had three levels of severity. Weights for each item-level combination were derived from a Bayesian mixed logit model. Weights were rescaled to construct an index score from 0 (best) to 100 (worst). Regression models were used to find a classification of this index score in mild, moderate and severe that was discriminative in terms of healthcare costs.RESULTS: Fatigue, limitations in moderate physical activities, number of exacerbations, dyspnoea at rest and fear of breathing getting worse contributed most to the burden of disease. Patients assigned less weight to dyspnoea during exercise, listlessness and limitations with regard to strenuous activities. Respondents from the general public mostly agreed. Mild, moderate and severe burden of disease were defined as scores <20, 20-39 and ≥40. This categorisation was most predictive of healthcare utilisation and annual costs: €1368, €2510 and €9885, respectively.CONCLUSIONS: The ABC Index is a new index score for the burden of COPD, which is based on patients' preferences. The classification of the index score into mild, moderate and severe is predictive of future healthcare costs.TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NTR3788; Post-results