A Forecasting Model to Predict the Demand of Roses in an Ecuadorian Small Business Under Uncertain Scenarios

[EN] Ecuador is worldwide considered as one of the main natural flower producers and exporters ¿being roses the most salient ones. Such a fact has naturally led the emergence of small and medium sized companies devoted to the production of quality roses in the Ecuadorian highlands, which intrinsically entails resource usage optimization. One of the first steps towards optimizing the use of resources is to forecast demand, since it enables a fair perspective of the future, in such a manner that the in-advance raw materials supply can be previewed against eventualities, resources usage can be properly planned, as well as the misuse can be avoided. Within this approach, the problem of forecasting the supply of roses was solved into two phases: the first phase consists of the macro-forecast of the total amount to be exported by the Ecuadorian flower sector by the year 2020, using multi-layer neural networks. In the second phase, the monthly demand for the main rose varieties offered by the study company was micro-forecasted by testing seven models. In addition, a Bayesian network model is designed, which takes into consideration macroeconomic aspects, the level of employability in Ecuador and weather-related aspects. This Bayesian network provided satisfactory results without the need for a large amount of historical data and at a low-computational cost.Authors of this publication acknowledge the contribution of the Project 691249, RUC-APS ¿Enhancing and implementing Knowledge based ICT solutions within high Risk and Uncertain Conditions for Agriculture Production Systems¿ (www.ruc-aps.eu), funded by the European Union under their funding scheme H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015. In addition, the authors are greatly grateful by the support given by the SDAS Research Group (www.sdas-group.com)Herrera-Granda, ID.; Lorente-Leyva, LL.; Peluffo-Ordóñez, DH.; Alemany Díaz, MDM. (2021). 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No effect of 24 h severe energy restriction on appetite regulation and ad libitum energy intake in overweight and obese males

Background/Objectives: Long-term success of weight loss diets might depend on how the appetite regulatory system responds to energy restriction (ER). This study determined the effect of 24 h severe ER on subjective and hormonal appetite regulation, subsequent ad libitum energy intake and metabolism. Subjects/Methods: In randomised order, eight overweight or obese males consumed a 24 h diet containing either 100% (12105 (1174 kJ; energy balance; EB) or 25% (3039 (295) kJ; ER) of estimated daily energy requirements (EER). An individualised standard breakfast containing 25% of EER (3216 (341) kJ) was consumed the following morning and resting energy expenditure, substrate utilisation and plasma concentrations of acylated ghrelin, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-17–36), glucose-dependant insulinotropic peptide (GIP1–42), glucose, insulin and non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) were determined for 4 h after breakfast. Ad libitum energy intake was assessed in the laboratory on day 2 and via food records on day 3. Subjective appetite was assessed throughout. Results: Energy intake was not different between trials for day 2 (EB: 14946 (1272) kJ; ER: 15251 (2114) kJ; P=0.623), day 3 (EB: 10580 (2457) kJ; 10812 (4357) kJ; P=0.832) or day 2 and 3 combined (P=0.693). Subjective appetite was increased during ER on day 1 (P0.381). Acylated ghrelin, GLP-17–36 and insulin were not different between trials (P>0.104). Post-breakfast area under the curve (AUC) for NEFA (P<0.05) and GIP1–42 (P<0.01) were greater during ER compared with EB. Fat oxidation was greater (P<0.01) and carbohydrate oxidation was lower (P<0.01) during ER, but energy expenditure was not different between trials (P=0.158). Conclusions: These results suggest that 24 h severe ER does not affect appetite regulation or energy intake in the subsequent 48 h. This style of dieting may be conducive to maintenance of a negative EB by limiting compensatory eating behaviour, and therefore may assist with weight loss

Number of years of participation in some, but not all, types of physical activity during adolescence predicts level of physical activity in adulthood: Results from a 13-year study

Abstract: Background: Adolescent physical activity (PA) levels track into adulthood. However it is not known if type of PA participated in during adolescence is associated with PA levels later in life. We aimed to identify natural groupings of types of PA and to assess whether number of years participating in these different groupings during adolescence is related to PA level in early adulthood. Methods: 673 adolescents in Montreal, Canada, age 12–13 years at baseline (54 % female), reported participation in 29 physical activities every 3 months over 5 years (1999–2005). They also reported their PA level at age 24 years (2011–12). PA groupings among the 29 physical activities were identified using factor analysis. The association between number of years participating in each grouping during adolescence and PA level at age 24 was estimated using linear regression within a general estimating equation framework. Results: Three PA groupings were identified: “sports”, “fitness and dance”, and “running”. There was a positive linear relationship between number of years participating in sports and running in adolescence and PA level at age 24 years (β (95 % confidence interval) = 0.09 (0.04-0.15); 0.08 (0.01-0.15), respectively). There was no relationship between fitness and dance in adolescence and PA level at age 24. Conclusions: The association between PA participation in adolescence and PA levels in young adulthood may be specific to certain PA types and to consistency of participation during adolescence. Results suggest that efforts to establish the habit of participation in sports and running in adolescence may promote higher PA levels in adulthood

Microsatellites for the genus Cucurbita and an SSR-based genetic linkage map of Cucurbita pepo L.

Until recently, only a few microsatellites have been available for Cucurbita, thus their development is highly desirable. The Austrian oil-pumpkin variety Gleisdorfer Ölkürbis (C. pepo subsp. pepo) and the C. moschata cultivar Soler (Puerto Rico) were used for SSR development. SSR-enriched partial genomic libraries were established and 2,400 clones were sequenced. Of these 1,058 (44%) contained an SSR at least four repeats long. Primers were designed for 532 SSRs; 500 primer pairs produced fragments of expected size. Of these, 405 (81%) amplified polymorphic fragments in a set of 12 genotypes: three C. moschata, one C. ecuadorensis, and eight C. pepo representing all eight cultivar groups. On an average, C. pepo and C. moschata produced 3.3 alleles per primer pair, showing high inter-species transferability. There were 187 SSR markers detecting polymorphism between the USA oil-pumpkin variety “Lady Godiva” (O5) and the Italian crookneck variety “Bianco Friulano” (CN), which are the parents of our previous F2 mapping population. It has been used to construct the first published C. pepo map, containing mainly RAPD and AFLP markers. Now the updated map comprises 178 SSRs, 244 AFLPs, 230 RAPDs, five SCARs, and two morphological traits (h and B). It contains 20 linkage groups with a map density of 2.9 cM. The observed genome coverage (Co) is 86.8%

Cheek Tooth Morphology and Ancient Mitochondrial DNA of Late Pleistocene Horses from the Western Interior of North America: Implications for the Taxonomy of North American Late Pleistocene Equus

Horses were a dominant component of North American Pleistocene land mammal communities and their remains are well represented in the fossil record. Despite the abundant material available for study, there is still considerable disagreement over the number of species of Equus that inhabited the different regions of the continent and on their taxonomic nomenclature. In this study, we investigated cheek tooth morphology and ancient mtDNA of late Pleistocene Equus specimens from the Western Interior of North America, with the objective of clarifying the species that lived in this region prior to the end-Pleistocene extinction. Based on the morphological and molecular data analyzed, a caballine (Equus ferus) and a non-caballine (E. conversidens) species were identified from different localities across most of the Western Interior. A second non-caballine species (E. cedralensis) was recognized from southern localities based exclusively on the morphological analyses of the cheek teeth. Notably the separation into caballine and non-caballine species was observed in the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of ancient mtDNA as well as in the geometric morphometric analyses of the upper and lower premolars. Teeth morphologically identified as E. conversidens that yielded ancient mtDNA fall within the New World stilt-legged clade recognized in previous studies and this is the name we apply to this group. Geographic variation in morphology in the caballine species is indicated by statistically different occlusal enamel patterns in the specimens from Bluefish Caves, Yukon Territory, relative to the specimens from the other geographic regions. Whether this represents ecomorphological variation and/or a certain degree of geographic and genetic isolation of these Arctic populations requires further study

Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders during 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Comparable data on the global and country-specific burden of neurological disorders and their trends are crucial for health-care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study provides such information but does not routinely aggregate results that are of interest to clinicians specialising in neurological conditions. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global disease burden due to neurological disorders in 2015 and its relationship with country development level. Methods We estimated global and country-specific prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) for various neurological disorders that in the GBD classification have been previously spread across multiple disease groupings. The more inclusive grouping of neurological disorders included stroke, meningitis, encephalitis, tetanus, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, medication overuse headache, brain and nervous system cancers, and a residual category of other neurological disorders. We also analysed results based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility, to identify patterns associated with development and how countries fare against expected outcomes relative to their level of development. Findings Neurological disorders ranked as the leading cause group of DALYs in 2015 (250·7 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 229·1 to 274·7] million, comprising 10·2% of global DALYs) and the second-leading cause group of deaths (9·4 [9·1 to 9·7] million], comprising 16·8% of global deaths). The most prevalent neurological disorders were tension-type headache (1505·9 [UI 1337·3 to 1681·6 million cases]), migraine (958·8 [872·1 to 1055·6] million), medication overuse headache (58·5 [50·8 to 67·4 million]), and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (46·0 [40·2 to 52·7 million]). Between 1990 and 2015, the number of deaths from neurological disorders increased by 36·7%, and the number of DALYs by 7·4%. These increases occurred despite decreases in age-standardised rates of death and DALYs of 26·1% and 29·7%, respectively; stroke and communicable neurological disorders were responsible for most of these decreases. Communicable neurological disorders were the largest cause of DALYs in countries with low SDI. Stroke rates were highest at middle levels of SDI and lowest at the highest SDI. Most of the changes in DALY rates of neurological disorders with development were driven by changes in YLLs. Interpretation Neurological disorders are an important cause of disability and death worldwide. Globally, the burden of neurological disorders has increased substantially over the past 25 years because of expanding population numbers and ageing, despite substantial decreases in mortality rates from stroke and communicable neurological disorders. The number of patients who will need care by clinicians with expertise in neurological conditions will continue to grow in coming decades. Policy makers and health-care providers should be aware of these trends to provide adequate services