How to support growth with less energy

There is considerable potential to support growth with less use of primary energy and lower carbon emissions. This can be achieved through technical solutions (existing and new), as well as behavioural change. The goal of securing growth with lower carbon emissions is just one of several strategic goals that need to be satisfied. Of the others, the need to develop alternatives to an energy system heavily dependent on oil and natural gas and to maintain security of energy supply are likely to be the most important. The strategic goals are to achieve major reductions in the energy intensity of transport, buildings in use, and to achieve corresponding reductions in energy intensity of the major building materials. Key challenges associated with these strategic goals include: • the development of technologies to produce carbon-free cement, carbon-free steel, carbon-free glass • enabling infrastructural developments that provide a framework for a wide range of low-carbon technologies and increase energy diversity and security of supply • identification of key energy-efficiency tipping points and the construction of technology policy • development of methane-fired modular fuel cells • improved capabilities to model whole energy systems, i.e. adequately modelling both demand and supply, social/economic as well as technical, and assessing the impact outside of the UK system boundary • better low-carbon planning and improved co-ordination of planning, building control and other policy tools • better monitoring and feedback on the real performance of energy efficient technologies. The implication of the Energy White Paper goal of reducing CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050 is a six-fold reduction in the carbon intensity of the UK economy. In the longer run, it is clear that we will move towards a carbon-free economy. Within this transition, developments in supply, distribution and end-use technologies will be multiplicative, while action to constrain demand growth is crucial to the rate of the overall transition

Understanding Disaster Risk on Volcanic Islands: a research agenda

April 11-13, 200

Hemostatic function and progressing ischemic stroke: D-dimer predicts early clinical progression

<p><b>Background and Purpose:</b> Early clinical progression of ischemic stroke is common and is associated with increased risk of death and dependency. We hypothesized that activation of the coagulation system is an important contributor in some cases of deterioration. We aimed to characterize alterations in circulating hemostatic markers in patients with progressing stroke.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Consecutive acute ischemic stroke admissions were recruited. Progressing stroke was defined by deterioration in components of the Scandinavian Stroke Scale. Hemostatic markers (coagulation factors VIIc, VIIIc, and IXc, prothrombin fragments 1+2 [F1+2], thrombin-antithrombin complexes [TAT], D- dimer, fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor [vWF] and tissue plasminogen activator) were measured within 24 hours of symptom recognition.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Fifty-four (25%) of the 219 patients met criteria for progressing stroke. F1+2 (median 1.28 versus 1.06 nmol/L, P=0.01), TAT (5.28 versus 4.07 mug/L, P lt 0.01), D-dimer ( 443 versus 194 ng/mL, P lt 0.001) and vWF (216 versus 198 IU/dL, P lt 0.05) levels were higher in these patients than in stable/improving patients. In logistic regression analysis, with all important clinical and laboratory variables included, only natural log D-dimer (odds ratio [OR]: 1.87; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38 to 2.54; P=0.0001) and mean arterial blood pressure (OR: 1.26 per 10 mm Hg change; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.51; P=0.01) remained independent predictors of progressing stroke.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> There is evidence of excess thrombin generation and fibrin turnover in patients with progressing ischemic stroke. Measurement of D-dimer levels can identify patients at high risk for stroke progression. Further research is required to determine whether such patients benefit from acute interventions aimed at modifying hemostatic function.</p&gt

Thrombotic variables and risk of idiopathic venous thromboembolism in women aged 45-64 years - Relationships to hormone replacement therapy

Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) has been shown to increase the relative risk of idiopathic venous thromboembolism (VTE) about threefold in several observational studies and one randomised controlled trial. Whether or not this relative risk is higher in women with underlying thrombophilia phenotypes, such as activated protein C (APC) resistance, is unknown. We therefore restudied the participants in a case-control study of the relationship between the use of HRT and the occurrence of idiopathic VTE in women aged 45-64 years. After protocol exclusions, 66 of the cases in the original study and 163 of the controls were studied. Twenty haematological variables relevant to risk of VTE were analysed, including thrombotic states defined from the literature. The relative risk of VTE showed significant associations with APC resistance (OR 4.06; 95% CI 1.62, 10.21); low antithrombin (3.33; 1.15, 9.65) or protein C (2.93; 1.06, 8.14); and high coagulation factor IX (2.34: 1.26, 1.35), or fibrin D-dimer (3.84; 1.99, 7.32). HRT use increased the risk of VTE in women without any of these thrombotic static; (OR 4.09; 95% CI 1.26, 13.30). A similar effect of HRT use on the relative risk of VTE was also found in women with prothrombotic states. Thus for example, the combination of HRT use and APC resistance increased the risk of VTE about 13-fold compared with women of similar age without either APC resistance or HRT use (OR 13.27; 95%, CI 4.30, 40.97). We conclude that the combination of HRT use and thrombophilias (especially if multiple) increases the relative risk of VTE substantially; hence women known to have thrombophilias (especially if multiple) should be counselled about this increased risk prior to prescription of HRT. However. HRT increases the risk of VTE about fourfold even in women without any thrombotic abnormalities: possible causes are discussed

Mopra CO Observations of the Bubble HII Region RCW120

We use the Mopra radio telescope to test for expansion of the molecular gas associated with the bubble HII region RCW120. A ring, or bubble, morphology is common for Galactic HII regions, but the three-dimensional geometry of such objects is still unclear. Detected near- and far-side expansion of the associated molecular material would be consistent with a three-dimensional spherical object. We map the $J = 1\rightarrow 0$ transitions of $^{12}$CO, $^{13}$CO, C$^{18}$O, and C$^{17}$O, and detect emission from all isotopologues. We do not detect the $0_0\rightarrow 1_{-1} E$ masing lines of CH$_3$OH at 108.8939 GHz. The strongest CO emission is from the photodissociation region (PDR), and there is a deficit of emission toward the bubble interior. We find no evidence for expansion of the molecular material associated with RCW120 and therefore can make no claims about its geometry. The lack of detected expansion is roughly in agreement with models for the time-evolution of an HII region like RCW120, and is consistent with an expansion speed of $< 1.5\, {\rm km\, s^{-1}}$. Single-position CO spectra show signatures of expansion, which underscores the importance of mapped spectra for such work. Dust temperature enhancements outside the PDR of RCW120 coincide with a deficit of emission in CO, confirming that these temperature enhancements are due to holes in the RCW120 PDR. H$\alpha$ emission shows that RCW120 is leaking $\sim5\%$ of the ionizing photons into the interstellar medium (ISM) through PDR holes at the locations of the temperature enhancements. H-alpha emission also shows a diffuse "halo" from leaked photons not associated with discrete holes in the PDR. Overall $25\pm10\%$ of all ionizing photons are leaking into the nearby ISM.Comment: 35 pages, 14 figures. Accepted to Ap

Probabilistic Search for Object Segmentation and Recognition

The problem of searching for a model-based scene interpretation is analyzed within a probabilistic framework. Object models are formulated as generative models for range data of the scene. A new statistical criterion, the truncated object probability, is introduced to infer an optimal sequence of object hypotheses to be evaluated for their match to the data. The truncated probability is partly determined by prior knowledge of the objects and partly learned from data. Some experiments on sequence quality and object segmentation and recognition from stereo data are presented. The article recovers classic concepts from object recognition (grouping, geometric hashing, alignment) from the probabilistic perspective and adds insight into the optimal ordering of object hypotheses for evaluation. Moreover, it introduces point-relation densities, a key component of the truncated probability, as statistical models of local surface shape.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figure

Dynamics of Turing patterns under spatio-temporal forcing

We study, both theoretically and experimentally, the dynamical response of Turing patterns to a spatio-temporal forcing in the form of a travelling wave modulation of a control parameter. We show that from strictly spatial resonance, it is possible to induce new, generic dynamical behaviors, including temporally-modulated travelling waves and localized travelling soliton-like solutions. The latter make contact with the soliton solutions of P. Coullet Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 56}, 724 (1986) and provide a general framework which includes them. The stability diagram for the different propagating modes in the Lengyel-Epstein model is determined numerically. Direct observations of the predicted solutions in experiments carried out with light modulations in the photosensitive CDIMA reaction are also reported.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure