157 research outputs found

    Stock Market Co-Movement and Exchange Rate Flexibility: Experience of the Republic of Korea

    Full text link
    This paper argues that for countries where equity investments dominate cross-border capital flows, the proper framework for analyzing the role of a flexible exchange rate system as a buffer against external shocks is the uncovered stock return parity condition, rather than the uncovered interest parity condition. Estimation of the stock return parity condition shows that it fails to hold in the Republic of Korea largely because of co-movement in the Republic of Korea and United States stock markets. Three global factors are largely responsible for the co-movement: global financial integration, which may be generating a global financial cycle; acceptance of insensitivity of exchange risk by global equity investors; and domestic investors imitating the trading behavior of foreign equity investors

    Efficient RT-QuIC seeding activity for \u3b1-synuclein in olfactory mucosa samples of patients with Parkinson's disease and multiple system atrophy

    Get PDF
    Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder whose diagnosis is often challenging because symptoms may overlap with neurodegenerative parkinsonisms. PD is characterized by intraneuronal accumulation of abnormal \u3b1-synuclein in brainstem while neurodegenerative parkinsonisms might be associated with accumulation of either \u3b1-synuclein, as in the case of Multiple System Atrophy (MSA) or tau, as in the case of Corticobasal Degeneration (CBD) and Progressive Supranuclear Palsy (PSP), in other disease-specific brain regions. Definite diagnosis of all these diseases can be formulated only neuropathologically by detection and localization of \u3b1-synuclein or tau aggregates in the brain. Compelling evidence suggests that trace-amount of these proteins can appear in peripheral tissues, including receptor neurons of the olfactory mucosa (OM). Methods: We have set and standardized the experimental conditions to extend the ultrasensitive Real Time Quaking Induced Conversion (RT-QuIC) assay for OM analysis. In particular, by using human recombinant \u3b1-synuclein as substrate of reaction, we have assessed the ability of OM collected from patients with clinical diagnoses of PD and MSA to induce \u3b1-synuclein aggregation, and compared their seeding ability to that of OM samples collected from patients with clinical diagnoses of CBD and PSP. Results: Our results showed that a significant percentage of MSA and PD samples induced \u3b1-synuclein aggregation with high efficiency, but also few samples of patients with the clinical diagnosis of CBD and PSP caused the same effect. Notably, the final RT-QuIC aggregates obtained from MSA and PD samples owned peculiar biochemical and morphological features potentially enabling their discrimination. Conclusions: Our study provide the proof-of-concept that olfactory mucosa samples collected from patients with PD and MSA possess important seeding activities for \u3b1-synuclein. Additional studies are required for (i) estimating sensitivity and specificity of the technique and for (ii) evaluating its application for the diagnosis of PD and neurodegenerative parkinsonisms. RT-QuIC analyses of OM and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) can be combined with the aim of increasing the overall diagnostic accuracy of these diseases, especially in the early stages

    An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics

    Get PDF
    This is the final version. Available on open access from the National Academy of Sciences via the DOI in this recordData Availability: Data deposition: The data are available at https://github.com/cdcepi/dengue-forecasting-project-2015 (DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3519270).A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue

    European agricultural landscapes, common agricultural policy and ecosystem services: a review

    Get PDF
    Since the 1950s, intensification and scale enlargement of agriculture have changed agricultural landscapes across Europe. The intensification and scale enlargement of farming was initially driven by the large-scale application of synthetic fertilizers, mechanization and subsidies of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Then, after the 1990s, a further intensification and scale enlargement, and land abandonment in less favored areas was caused by globalization of commodity markets and CAP reforms. The landscape changes during the past six decades have changed the flows and values of ecosystem services. Here, we have reviewed the literature on agricultural policies and management, landscape structure and composition, and the contribution of ecosystem services to regional competitiveness. The objective was to define an analytical framework to determine and assess ecosystem services at the landscape scale. In contrast to natural ecosystems, ecosystem service flows and values in agricultural landscapes are often a result of interactions between agricultural management and ecological structures. We describe how land management by farmers and other land managers relates to landscape structure and composition. We also examine the influence of commodity markets and policies on the behavior of land managers. Additionally, we studied the influence of consumer demand on flows and values of the ecosystem services that originate from the agricultural landscape
    • …
    corecore